495
FXUS64 KLCH 201838
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
138 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD WEATHER RETURNS BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM BRING ABOUT A QUICK ROUND OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION TOMORROW.
- WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH TUESDAY BY EVENING USHERING
IN DRY AIR, MILD HIGHS, AND COOL MORNING LOWS THROUGH THURSDAY.
- MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING AND RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2025
A HIGH PRESSURE CELL HAS MIGRATED OVER THE SECONUS ALLOWING SE
ONSHORE FLOW TO RESUME THIS EVENING. NEEDLESS TO SAY WITH THE VERY
WARM MBL AND WAA IN PLACE, LOWS TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE 10-15°F
WARMER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. IN FACT CLIMATOLOGICALLY,
THEY'LL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MEANWHILE, A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A
LARGE DRY AIR MASS BEHIND IT. WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TOMORROW AS ONSHORE FLOW ALLOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS /
STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SOME LOCATIONS MAY BE
ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT A WETTING RAINFALL AROUND 0.25 INCH, HOWEVER,
THE ACCELERATION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL UPSET A NECESSARY
UPDRAFT / SHEAR BALANCE FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION. BY SUNSET,
ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MAKING IT'S WAY OFF THE COAST. WINDS
WILL TURN OUT OF THE NORTH AGAIN BY TOMORROW NIGHT. COOLER AIR
BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE NOTICEABLE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS WILL BRING CONDITIONS CLOSER TO
WHAT WE WOULD EXPECT THIS TIME OF YEAR- 50'S/60'S FOR LOWS FROM
CENLA TO THE GULF COAST. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE VERY MILD.
KOWALSKI / 30
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2025
WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES CLOSES OFF
FROM THE NORTHERN JET, ACTIVE WEATHER WILL BE CAPPED LARGELY DUE TO
THE HIGH PRESSURE ENVIRONMENT LOCALLY. MORNING LOWS WILL BE COOL,
PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMS- ESPECIALLY OVER CENLA WHERE
NORTHERLY ADVECTION MAY REMAIN THROUGH DAWN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MIGRATE OVER THE SECONUS AGAIN BRINGING A SOUTHERLY FETCH
ONSHORE BY THURSDAY. AS A RESULT WE CAN EXPECT WARMER CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK, BUT NOTHING UNSEASONABLE FOR
THE TEMPERATURES AT LEAST. THAT SAID, WE DO HAVE INCREASING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS ACCUMULATING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A NEW TROUGH
DEVELOPS EAST OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD, LOCALLY. ISOLATED CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS SETX FRIDAY
EVENING AND GRADUALLY INCREASE EASTWARD TOWARD THE ATCHAFALAYA
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WAY TO EARLY TO CONSIDER POTENTIAL
AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER, WITH A LOWER LATITUDE SYSTEM
ORGANIZING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, THIS DAY DOES LOOK LIKE OUR
MOST FAVORABLE CHANCE FOR SEEING A WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL
WITHIN THE SCOPE OF THE CURRENT 7 DAY FORECAST PERIOD. SCATTERED
CHANCES LINGER INTO SUNDAY WHILE TEMPERATURES TREND CLOSE TO
NORMAL FOR HIGHS AND ABOVE NORMAL FOR LOWS.
KOWALSKI / 30
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH. SOME GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN SUGGESTIVE OF WINDS CALMING PRIOR TO DAWN INDICATING SOME
PATCHY FOG SO SOME REDUCTIONS IN VIS ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE MORNING
TWILIGHT IS VISIBLE. FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH LIKELY A QUICK
LINE OF VICINITY SHOWERS.
30
MARINE
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2025
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST IS FACILITATING ONSHORE. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL PERSIST UNTIL LATE TUESDAY WHEN ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO GULF WATERS. WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG AS SUNDAY'S PASSAGE. HOWEVER, SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXPECT TO EXERCISE CAUTION AROUND THE MIDWEEK.
RETURN, ONSHORE WINDS WILL RETURN QUICKLY AGAIN WEDNESDAY AND WILL
PERSIST TO END THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND POTENTIALLY DEVELOP
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION BY SATURDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2025
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF QUICKLY INTO TODAY
RESULTING IN A RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS FLOW
WILL PERSIST UNTIL LATE TUESDAY WHEN ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO GULF WATERS. WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE AS STRONG AS SUNDAY'S PASSAGE. HOWEVER, SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXPECT
TO EXERCISE CAUTION AROUND THE MIDWEEK.
RETURN, ONSHORE WINDS WILL RETURN QUICKLY AGAIN WEDNESDAY AND WILL
PERSIST TO END THE WORK WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2025
ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING, BEFORE A COLD
FRONT QUICKLY SHIFTS WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH BY TUESDAY EVENING. A
FEW SCATTERED SHOWER / STORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY, BUT PER LATEST GUIDANCE, ANY CELLS THAT DEVELOP ARE
LIKELY TO BE FAST MOVING WITH WEAK STRUCTURE INDICATING A WETTING
RAINFALL IS UNLIKELY FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF
THE NORTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE GAINING EAST AND
SOUTHERLY COMPONENTS THURSDAY BEFORE ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS
FRIDAY. DURING THIS TIME HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS RAIN
FREE WITH AFTERNOON RH DROPPING TO 25-40% ACROSS THE AREA.
30
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 60 84 50 78 / 0 50 0 0
LCH 68 88 62 80 / 0 40 10 0
LFT 64 87 60 79 / 0 40 10 0
BPT 70 89 63 80 / 0 40 10 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...30
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