176
FXUS64 KLCH 211138
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
638 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD WEATHER RETURNS BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM BRING ABOUT A QUICK ROUND OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION TOMORROW.
- WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH TUESDAY BY EVENING USHERING
IN DRY AIR, MILD HIGHS, AND COOL MORNING LOWS THROUGH THURSDAY.
- DRY WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY. FIRE WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2025
HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY SITUATED TO OUR EAST AND IS PROVIDING
ROBUST WAA ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNCOMFORTABLY
WARM FOR LATE OCTOBER, WITH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING AROUND 70
DEGREES ALONG THE COAST AND HIGHS CLOSE TO 90 DEGREES.
THANKFULLY, WE WON’T HAVE TO WAIT LONG FOR RELIEF AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION. THIS DISTURBANCE IS WELL
REMOVED FROM ANY LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC SUPPORT. CAMS SHOW A BROKEN
LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION STARTING
AROUND NOON AND HEADING OFFSHORE BY THE EVENING. DIGGING A LITTLE
DEEPER INTO THE ENVIRONMENT, CAPE VALUES WILL BE ROUGHLY 1000
J/KG, WHILE 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 20 KNOTS. THIS COMBO CAN
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS BUT NOT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER. CLOSE TO
THE COAST, CONDITIONS WILL BE BETTER FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS, SO WE CAN’T COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF
DAMAGING WINDS. UNFORTUNATELY, RAINFALL WILL BE SPARSE WITH THIS
FRONT, WITH ONLY A TENTH OF AN INCH EXPECTED AREA-WIDE.
BEHIND THE FRONT, COOL NORTH WINDS WILL DROP OUR TEMPERATURES
SEVERAL DEGREES, DROPPING OUR LOWS BACK INTO THE 50S WITH HIGHS
DROPPING BACK TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2025
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COOL FRONT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
BACK IN AND SHIFT TO THE EAST LEADING TO A STEADY FLOW OF
SOUTHERLY WINDS. WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES SLOWLY START TO CREEP
BACK UP BUT WILL STAY COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-80S.
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK, CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY WITH
LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR RAIN UNTIL SATURDAY.
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND, A ROBUST LOW WILL DIG SOUTH FROM THE
ROCKIES, AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION. UNLIKE THE FRONT EARLY IN THE WEEK, THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE
DYNAMIC SUPPORT FROM THE CLOSED LOW. WHILE IT IS STILL TOO EARLY
TO NAIL DOWN ANY SPECIFICS WITH THIS SYSTEM, WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL
BE LIKELY AND PROVIDE MUCH-NEEDED RELIEF FROM THE ONGOING DROUGHT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2025
PATCHY GROUND FOG ONGOING THIS MORNING WILL DISSIPATE BY 13Z.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL TURN NORTHERLY FOLLOWING IT'S PASSAGE. PERIODS OF MVFR
CEILINGS MAY BRIEFLY OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS AND
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, BUT SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FOLLOWING FROPA.
JONES
MARINE
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2025
STEADY ONSHORE FLOW AROUND 15 KNOTS WILL BECOME OFFSHORE ON
TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. AS THE LINE MOVES
OFFSHORE TUESDAY EVENING, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
EXPECTED. BEHIND THE FRONT, WINDS WILL BE GUSTING OVER 20 KNOTS,
AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2025
EVEN THOUGH WE ARE NOT AT RED FLAG CRITERIA, WE HAVE BEEN SEEING
AGGRESSIVE FIRE BEHAVIOR WITH AT LEAST ONE PYRO-CUMULUS SEEN IN
CAMERON PARISH EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.
A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BRING SOME RAIN BUT NO WIDESPREAD RELIEF FROM THE DROUGHT
CONDITIONS. BEHIND THE FRONT, STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL DROP MINIMUM
RH VALUES TO 20% ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL QUICKLY BECOME ONSHORE
BY THURSDAY, AND MIN RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 30% THEN 40% BY
FRIDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 10 MPH. BUT WITH THE
WIDESPREAD DROUGHT CONDITIONS, FUELS ARE PRIMED TO BURN.
OVER THE WEEKEND, WE WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR WETTING RAIN AREA-WIDE
AS A ROBUST FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 83 49 78 47 / 60 0 0 0
LCH 88 59 80 58 / 50 10 0 0
LFT 87 59 80 54 / 40 10 0 0
BPT 88 62 81 61 / 50 10 0 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...66
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