422
FXUS64 KLCH 212326
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
626 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SEGMENTED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THROUGH DUSK.
WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH THIS EVENING USHERING IN DRY
AIR, MILD HIGHS, AND COOL MORNING LOWS THROUGH THURSDAY.
- DRY WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY. COMBINED WITH PERIODIC MODEST BREEZES, FIRE WEATHER
WILL BE A CONCERN THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
- A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
POTENTIALLY OFFERING WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES AND AN MARGINAL
RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2025
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS FEATURE IS PULLING VERY DRY AND
COOL AIR DOWN THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MEANWHILE LOCALLY,
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS, SOME WITH A RUMBLE OF THUNDER HERE
AND THERE, WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFFSHORE THROUGH DUSK.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TOWARD 50°F FOR INTERIOR COUNTIES AND
PARISHES TOWARD CENLA WHILE TEMPS BELOW THE I-10 CORRIDOR REMAIN
CLOSER TO 60°F. ADDITIONALLY, BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, WINDS WILL
VEER OUT OF THE NORTH. WINDS BECOME NORTHEASTERLY WEDNESDAY WITH
MILD HIGHS NEAR 80°F ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY WILL BE QUICK EXPAND, BROADEN, AND MIGRATE
TOWARD THE SECONUS. WINDS WILL GAIN MORE EAST COMPONENTS THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SUGGESTIVE EVENING LOWS WILL
TREND LOWER, WITH UPPER 40'S COMMON OVER CENLA THURSDAY MORNING
WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50'S TOWARD THE COAST.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL AND ESE PARTIAL ONSHORE FLOW WILL WARM
TEMPERATURE FURTHER INTO THE LOW 80'S THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHILE WE
REMAIN DRY. DO WANT TO NOTE AFTERNOON MINIMUM RH (%) IS FORECAST
TO RANGE AS LOW AS 25-40% THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WHICH AIDES IN THE SUSCEPTIBILITY OF FIRES SPREADING EASILY.
NOT TO MENTION A STEADY NORTHEAST WIND FURTHER ELEVATES THIS
POTENTIAL AND WARRANTS CAUTIONS FOR THOSE WITH FIRE WEATHER
INTERESTS.
KOWALSKI / 30
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2025
BY FRIDAY AFTER A COOL/MILD START, WE BEGIN TO SEE STRONGER AND
MORE CONFIDENT SIGNALS FOR A PATTERN CHANGE. A LOW LATITUDE UPPER
LEVEL CLOSED LOW IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS, DEEPENING THE
SUBTROPICAL JET OVER MEXICO AND THE US GULF COAST. A SURFACE LOW
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
TO OUR EAST HELPS A WARM FRONT ONSHORE OVER SETX AND PORTIONS OF
SWLA. WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASES THROUGHOUT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME, THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL STILL CONTAIN
DRY LAYERS PREVENTING MUCH PRECIPITATION FROM OCCUR, BUT AREAS
WEST OF THE I-49 CORRIDOR WILL START TO SEE ISOLATED CHANCES BY
THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD
WILL CLIMB TOWARD THE LOWER 80'S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
SATURDAY THE SURFACE LOW MOVES TOWARD THE ARKLATEX REGION. STRONG
WARM / MOIST AIR ADVECTION ALONG WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY HERE
WILL LIKELY INITIATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS. BLENDED NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED UP FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST PACKAGE AS THE FEATURE IS SHOWING SIGNS OF SLOWING AS IT
ABUTS THE RIDGE OVER THE SECONUS. THIS SCENARIO WOULD ALLOW FOR
SLOW MOVING STORMS WHICH MAY PRODUCE HIGH RAINFALL RATES. MILDER
TEMPERATURES WITH ACCOMPANY THIS CLOUDY, RAINY SATURDAY WITH LOWS
UNDER 80°F FOR MOST. SUNDAY, THE TROUGH BEGINS TO EJECT NORTH
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION, HOWEVER, CONTINUED SHOWERS/STORMS
ARE STILL LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING BEFORE DECREASING
THAT AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. MILD NEAR NORMAL HIGHS LOOK TO BE A
GOOD POTENTIAL AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY, LEAVING SOME LOW END
ISOLATED CHANCES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DO WANT TO CAUTION
POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER CHANGES REGARDING THE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND.
ALREADY THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL SATURDAY
GIVEN THE SETUP CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, POTENTIAL AMOUNTS MAY FURTHER
INCREASE OR DECREASE IN NEW FORECAST PACKAGES. I WANT TO STRESS
THE UNCERTAINTY BEING THE LACK OF ACCUMULATED CONSISTENCY AND THE
FACT THAT THIS EVENT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT IN THE LONG RANGE
OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE. HOWEVER, FOR THOSE WITH INTERESTS
REGARDING DROUGHT, FIRE WEATHER, OR AGRICULTURE A STARTING STORM
TOTAL EVALUATION WOULD RANGE 2 - 4" FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
BETWEEN FRIDAY EVENING TO SUNDAY EVENING. THIS FORECAST IS
CONGRUENT WITH EXPERTISE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER AND
LOCAL ANALYSIS.
KOWALSKI / 30
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2025
THE LINE OF SHOWERS HAS MADE ITS WAY TO THE COAST AND THE REST OF
THE NIGHT WILL BE VFR. NORMALLY AFTER RAIN WE WOULD EXPECT VIS
IMPACTS FROM FOG BUT A STRONG NORTH BREEZE WILL STOP THE FORMATION
OF FOG.
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH BETWEEN 5 AND
15 KNOTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2025
WINDS ARE GRADUALLY SHIFTING WEST TO OUT OF THE NORTH THIS EVENING
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. AS THE LINE MOVES OFFSHORE
TONIGHT, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE EXPECTED. BEHIND THE
FRONT, WINDS WILL BE GUSTING OVER 20 KNOTS, AND A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2025
A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING
SOME RAIN BUT NO WIDESPREAD RELIEF FROM THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
BEHIND THE FRONT, STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL DROP MINIMUM RH VALUES TO
20% ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL QUICKLY BECOME ONSHORE BY THURSDAY, AND
MIN RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 30% THEN 40% BY FRIDAY. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 10 MPH. BUT WITH THE WIDESPREAD DROUGHT
CONDITIONS, FUELS ARE PRIMED TO BURN.
OVER THE WEEKEND, WE WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR WETTING RAIN AREA-WIDE
AS A ROBUST FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 49 78 46 81 / 0 0 0 0
LCH 59 80 56 82 / 20 0 0 0
LFT 58 80 53 81 / 20 0 0 0
BPT 61 80 59 83 / 20 0 0 10
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...14
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