832
FXUS64 KLCH 220504
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1204 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- SEGMENTED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THROUGH DUSK.
WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH THIS EVENING USHERING IN DRY
AIR, MILD HIGHS, AND COOL MORNING LOWS THROUGH THURSDAY.
- DRY WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY. COMBINED WITH PERIODIC MODEST BREEZES, FIRE WEATHER
WILL BE A CONCERN THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
- A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
POTENTIALLY OFFERING WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES AND AN MARGINAL
RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2025
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WE WILL ENTER A QUIET
PERIOD. BEHIND THE FRONT, STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL DRIVE DOWN
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL
START TO BUILD WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP US
DRY FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH MORE FALL-LIKE
TEMPERATURES, WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 50S AND HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S.
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
TO THE EAST, ALLOWING OUR WINDS TO COME FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST.
THIS MOISTURE RETURN WILL BRING UP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, BUT HIGHS WILL STAY IN THE MID-80S.
FIRE WEATHER WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN; WHILE WE WON’T MEET ALL THE
CRITERIA FOR A RED FLAG (LOW WINDS ARE THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR),
WE WILL HAVE A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IN PLACE FOR TOMORROW.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2025
FRIDAY GOING INTO THE WEEKEND, WE WILL SEE A ROBUST FRONT MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION, BRINGING BOTH A FLASH FLOOD AND A SEVERE
THREAT TO THE REGION. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CONUS WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
IN OKLAHOMA. THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY, BRINGING WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER. AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX REGION, IT WILL PULL IN MOISTURE FROM THE GULF, AND OUR
PWATS WILL QUICKLY RISE, WITH THE LATEST MODEL ROUNDS SHOWING
PWATS REACHING 2 INCHES ON SATURDAY, WELL ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE. GLOBAL MODELS ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH RAINFALL TOTALS
THIS WEEKEND, WITH THE GFS SHOWING WIDESPREAD 2-5 INCHES WITH MAX
AMOUNTS UP TO 7 INCHES. THE NBM AND BLENDED GUIDANCE ARE LESS
AGGRESSIVE WITH RAINFALL MAXIMUMS BUT STILL SHOW WIDESPREAD 2-4
INCHES OF RAIN THIS WEEKEND. WITH THIS SETUP AND MODEL GUIDANCE,
THE WPC HAS ALREADY PLACED MUCH OF THE REGION UNDER A SLIGHT RISK
(2 OF 4) FOR FLASH FLOODING ON SATURDAY.
WHILE ANY RAIN WILL BE WELCOME TO HELP EASE THE DROUGHT, FLASH
FLOODING IS NOT. MAKE SURE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR CHANGES, AS
WE COULD BE SEEING A SEVERE THREAT ON SATURDAY AS WELL.
BEHIND THE FRONT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WITH CALM CONDITONS NEXT
WORK WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP, AS WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AND FROM THE NORTH.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2025
AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE, STEADY NORTH WINDS WILL SUSTAIN WINDS
AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. WAVE
HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD ALONG WITH THE WINDS, WITH HEIGHTS
UP TO 5 FEET IN THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS. WHILE WE ARE JUST BELOW
THE CRITERIA FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY, IT WILL STILL BE
IMPORTANT TO EXERCISE CAUTION TOMORROW. BY THURSDAY, WINDS WILL
DECREASE TO BELOW 10 KNOTS AND WILL BE FROM THE ESE WITH WAVES
BELOW 3 FEET.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2025
A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE REGION FOR
WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE
MID-20S, EVEN DOWN THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY, WITH MAX RH VALUES ONLY
REACHING AROUND 90%. WITH THE ONGOING DROUGHT, KBDI VALUES REMAIN
IN THE 600S ACROSS THE CWA, WITH THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR ON FIRE
SPREAD BEING 20-FOOT WINDS BELOW 15 MPH.
EVEN WITHOUT A RED FLAG WARNING, EXTREME CAUTION SHOULD BE USED
WHEN LIGHTING FIRES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 78 46 81 50 / 0 0 0 0
LCH 80 56 82 60 / 0 0 0 0
LFT 80 53 81 57 / 0 0 0 0
BPT 80 59 83 65 / 0 0 10 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...14
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page