903
FXUS64 KLCH 041146
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
546 AM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.
- ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 527 AM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
IS PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND COOL TEMPS ACROSS THE
FORECAST ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW TO
MID 40S AS WE APPROACH SUNRISE, WHICH WILL BE THE LAST TIME MOST OF
US SEE SUB-50 DEGREE TEMPS FOR ABOUT A WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS TODAY, TURNING WINDS BACK
TO THE SE BY THIS AFTERNOON. ONSHORE SURFACE WINDS WILL THEN PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, ALLOWING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO INCREASE AND DEWPOINTS TO STEADILY RISE THROUGH THE NEXT
48 HOURS OR SO. TODAY WILL BE OUR LAST SEASONAL AND DRY DAY, WITH
DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO REBOUND FROM THE LOW/MID 40S THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE LOW/MID 60S BY THURS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE WISE, HIGHS
REACH INTO THE MID 70S THIS AFTERNOON AND WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER
70S TOMORROW AND THURS, WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WHERE MOISTURE
RETURN IS MOST NOTICEABLE, WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S BY THURS
NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 527 AM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
AFTER A COUPLE OF DAYS OF STEADY MOISTURE RETURN, FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY BRING WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT
FINALLY ARRIVES ON SUNDAY. ON FRIDAY, A SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM THE
CENTRAL GULF WILL INTERACT WITH A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. MOST OF THIS CONVECTION LOOKS
TO BE MORE ACROSS SE LA, BUT SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD EXTEND
ACROSS THE I-49 CORRIDOR AND LOWER ACADIANA. ELSEWHERE, WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S BOTH FRI
AND SAT.
FINALLY, A COLD FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY MORNING, WITH WINDS TURNING
BACK TO THE NORTH BY SUNRISE. THIS FRONT MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW
SHOWERS, BUT FRIDAY'S DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY USE UP A GOOD CHUNK OF
THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE SO RAIN CHANCES ARE OVERALL VERY LOW.
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL SLOWLY FALL THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON SUNDAY, WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE MID 70S. COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUES OVERNIGHT INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK, WITH BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 527 AM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
PATCHY FOG WILL DISSIPATE VERY SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. OTHERWISE,
ANTICIPATE A TURNING OF SFC WINDS FROM NORTHEAST / EAST TOWARDS
THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH BY 18Z. THIS ONSHORE FETCH WILL BRING
ABOUT THE RETURN OF SFC MOISTURE AND LIKELY THE FIRST POTENTIAL
FOR DENSE FOG THIS FALL SEASON. CONCENTRATION OF MOISTURE POOLING
IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME, SO AREA TAFS, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE
COASTLINE, WERE BROUGHT TO 1 SM. FUTURE TAF ISSUANCES MAY COME
WITH LOWER VIS, WITH LATEST GUIDANCE AT THOSE TIMES.
11/CALHOUN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 74 45 78 51 / 0 0 0 0
LCH 74 55 78 58 / 0 0 0 0
LFT 74 53 78 56 / 0 0 0 0
BPT 76 56 80 59 / 0 0 0 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...11
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