492
FXUS64 KLCH 041750
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1150 AM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- FLOW OFF THE GULF WILL HELP BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER
HUMIDITY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
- WITH STABLE CONDITIONS AND AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOG
MAY BE AN ISSUE TONIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.
- A SHARP CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH SUNDAY BRINGING
UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE TO THE EAST AND THIS WILL ALLOW A LIGHT SOUTHEAST
FLOW FROM THE GULF TO DEVELOP AND PERSIST DURING THE PERIOD. THIS
WILL HELP INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND BRING ABOUT A WARMING OF
TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL KEEP ANY RAIN CHANCES FROM OCCURRING
DESPITE THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE. HOWEVER, FOG MAY BECOME MORE OF
AN ISSUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS WITH STABLE CONDITIONS TO
GO ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS, RADIATIONAL COOLING
SHOULD ALLOW AIR TEMPERATURES TO REACH DEW POINTS.
FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, PROBS ONLY SHOWING ABOUT A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1/4 OF A MILE SO WILL HOLD
OFF ON ANY DENSE FOG ADVISORY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING SHOWS A BETTER CHANCE OF DENSE FOG.
RUA
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
WILL START OUT WITH VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH FLOW
CONTINUING OFF THE GULF. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING
ABOUT A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON
FRIDAY. HOWEVER, AT THIS POINT OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE
LIGHT.
OVER THE WEEKEND, RIDGING ALONG THE PACIFIC WILL ALLOW FOR A DIP
IN THE JET STREAM WITH A LARGE TROUGH EAST OF THE ROCKIES OPENING
THE DOOR FOR SOME COLD CANADIAN AIR TO MOVE DOWN TOWARD THE
REGION. THIS CANADIAN COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON EARLY
SUNDAY WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.
NBM DETERMINISTIC VALUES WHICH IS NEAR THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SUGGEST
THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR LOCATIONS OF UPPER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
RUA
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP MAINLY STABLE
CONDITIONS IN PLACE. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL HELP BRING IN SOME
SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
NEARLY CALM WINDS TONIGHT EXPECT AT LEAST PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP AT
ALL TERMINALS WITH MVFR TO IFR BETWEEN 05/09Z-13Z.
RUA
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL MOVE OFF TO EAST OF THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES ALLOWING LIGHT TO MODEST WINDS TO BECOME MORE
EASTERLY THEN SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP INCREASE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WITH AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
ABOVE 50 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. PATCHY TO WIDESPREAD
FOG IS ALSO EXPECTED DURING THE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 47 78 51 80 / 0 0 0 0
LCH 55 78 58 79 / 0 0 0 10
LFT 54 77 56 79 / 0 0 0 0
BPT 57 79 59 79 / 0 0 0 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...07
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