655
FXUS64 KLCH 050535
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1135 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- FLOW OFF THE GULF WILL HELP BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER
HUMIDITY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
- WITH STABLE CONDITIONS AND AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOG
WILL LIKELY BECOME AN ISSUE TONIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
- A SHARP CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH SUNDAY BRINGING
UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN US TONIGHT, WITH THE FORECAST AREA ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY, WHILE ALOFT, BROAD ZONAL FLOW IS ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE US. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER EASTWARD
THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, ALLOWING ONSHORE SURFACE FLOW TO
PREVAIL OVERHEAD. MOISTURE RETURN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE RAMPING UP ON FRIDAY, ALLOWING AFTERNOON HIGHS
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS TO WARM AND DEWPOINTS TO STEADILY INCREASE AS WE
HEAD TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S TODAY AND TOMORROW, AND IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ON FRIDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STEADILY WARM FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S TOMORROW
NIGHT TO THE LOW/MID 60S THURS/FRI NIGHT, WHICH IS ROUGHLY 10
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. AFTER A COUPLE OF DAYS OF STEADY
MOISTURE RETURN, A WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF AND AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR NORTH WILL PULL A SLUG OF DEEPER
TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD EARLY FRIDAY. THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE
WILL MOVE INLAND MORE TO OUR EAST HOWEVER, THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES ON FRIDAY DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS IN RESPONSE. OVERALL, THIS SHOULDN'T BE A MAJOR RAIN
MAKER FOR OUR AREA, BUT IT WILL BRING A WARM, CLOUD, AND HUMID DAY
AREA-WIDE.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND, FRIDAY'S INCREASE IN MOISTURE GETS SHUNTED
EASTWARD AS A BROAD TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. SATURDAY WILL BRING ONE MORE
WARM AND HUMID DAY, WITH HIGHS AGAIN REACHING INTO THE MID 80S,
BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES AND FALL WEATHER RETURNS. WITH ONLY
MODEST MOISTURE AVAILABLE, LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION IS EXPECTED WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE. INSTEAD, WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD BEHIND THE
FRONT AND QUICKLY ADVECT A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION
THROUGHOUT SUNDAY. AS WE HEAD INTO THE WORK WEEK, COLD AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES WITH MON MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S AND
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. TUES MORNING THEN
BRINGS THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WE'VE SEEN SINCE EARLY THIS YEAR,
WITH PARTS OF CENLA POTENTIALLY FALLING INTO THE 30-32 DEGREE RANGE,
WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S ELSEWHERE. THEREAFTER, A SLOW
WARMING TREND COMMENCES AS SURFACE WINDS GRADUALLY TURN BACK TO THE
SOUTH AND SLOWLY BRING IN MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
MAIN ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE AREAS OF FOG, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH LA TERMINALS, WITH SOME FOG ALREADY ONGOING AND EXPECTED TO
EXPAND/WORSE AS WE HEAD TOWARDS SUNRISE. LCH, LFT, AND ARA WILL
LIKELY FALL TO IFR OR LIFR AS WE NEAR THE 10/11Z HOUR, BEFORE
EVENTUALLY IMPROVING POST-SUNRISE. OTHERWISE, LIGHT WINDS AND VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
LIGHT MAINLY ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY AND TOMORROW, WITH RAIN
CHANCES RETURNING ON FRIDAY AS A SLUG OF TROPICAL MOISTURE GETS
PULLED INTO THE THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. THE EASTERN-MOST ZONES WILL
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGHOUT FRIDAY IN
RESPONSE. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY,
TURNING WINDS TO THE NORTH AND CAUSING THEM TO BECOME STRONG AND
GUSTY SUNDAY INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP INCREASE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WITH AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE
50 PERCENT TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. PATCHY TO WIDESPREAD FOG IS ALSO
EXPECTED DURING THE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY, ADVECTING A
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS IN AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 74 47 78 51 / 0 0 0 0
LCH 74 55 78 57 / 0 0 0 0
LFT 74 54 77 56 / 0 0 0 0
BPT 76 57 80 58 / 0 0 0 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...17
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