711
FXUS64 KLCH 061133
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
533 AM CST THU NOV 6 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DENSE FOG THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS, SOUTHWEST AND
CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
- WITH STABLE CONDITIONS AND AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOG
WILL LIKELY BECOME AN ISSUE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
- A SHARP CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH SUNDAY BRINGING
UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK. PORTIONS OF THE
REGION MAY RECEIVE THEIR FIRST FREEZE.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 518 AM CST THU NOV 6 2025
PATCHY TO DENSE FOG WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN LATE TONIGHT AND
INTO THE MORNING. CLEAR SKIES, HIGH MOISTURE WITH DEW POINTS
AROUND 60, AND LIGHT WINDS ARE IDEAL FOR WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. IN
ADDITION, 500 MB WINDS ARE LIGHT, BELOW 5 KNOTS, WHICH IS ALSO A
NUDGE THAT WIDESPREAD FOG CAN FORM. GUIDANCE HAS ALSO BEEN MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH FOG TONIGHT WITH VISIBILITY DROPPING BELOW 1 MILE
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. THE DENSITY OF THE FOG IS STILL A QUESTION WITH
PROBABILITY SHOWING SIMILAR CHANCES FOR VISIBILITY BELOW 1 MILE
AND 1/4 MILE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AND DECREASING TO THE EAST. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE MORNING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD LIFT
QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.
ALOFT, ZONAL FLOW WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER CALM WITH THE ONLY CHANCE
OF RAIN COMING ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE IN ACADIANA
BUT POPS ARE ONLY AROUND 30%.
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK, TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO RISE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOW 80S THURSDAY AND
THE MID-80S ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH ALMOST SUMMER-LIKE
HUMIDITY IN THE AFTERNOONS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 518 AM CST THU NOV 6 2025
THE BIG STORY FOR THE LONG-TERM FORECAST WILL BE THE RETURN OF
COLD AIR. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ON SATURDAY NIGHT TO
SUNDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT WON’T BE MUCH OF A RAINMAKER, BUT WE
COULD SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN ACADIANA. OTHERWISE, RAIN TOTALS
WILL BE BELOW A TENTH OF AN INCH WITH THIS SYSTEM.
BEHIND THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET WITH LOWS IN THE 30S
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE YEAR IS
POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH A 40% CHANCE THE LOW
WILL BE IN THE 20S IN ALEXANDRIA. A POST-FRONTAL HIGH WILL KEEP
RAIN CHANCES NEAR ZERO TO START NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 533 AM CST THU NOV 6 2025
AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE ONGOING, MOST PRIMARILY FROM SOUTHEAST
TEXAS, ACROSS INTO CENTRAL LA AND SOUTHWEST. ACADIANA HAS PATCHY
FOG, BUT VERY FEW AREAS OF DENSE VIS BEING REPORTED.
CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE, WITH DFY CONDITIONS
LIFTING TO 1 TO 2 SM MILES AFTER 13Z.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT IN CONTROL THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH A PIECE OF ITS RIDGING EXPANDING OVER SOUTHEAST LA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN VARIABLE, LOWER WINDS AT LFT, ARA, AND A MORE SOUTHERLY,
SLIGHTLY MORE ELEVATED, FETCH AT LCH AND BPT. AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES BUILDING INTO THE REGION, EXPECT DAYTIME FAIR-WEATHER
CUMULUS AROUND 5000 FEET TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH.
SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING, CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNDOWN
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY TO DENSE FOG AT MOST TERMINALS. A
WAVE DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL TEXAS LATE TODAY MAY KEEP WINDS AT
BPT, AND PERHAPS LCH, TO KEEP FOG FROM FULLY SOCKING IN FOR FRIDAY
MORNING. CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECASTS AND TRENDS FOR THE LATEST.
11/CALHOUN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 79 60 83 60 / 0 0 10 0
LCH 77 65 82 65 / 0 0 10 10
LFT 78 64 83 65 / 0 10 20 10
BPT 78 63 84 64 / 0 0 0 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LAZ027>033-
044-045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-
259>262-515-516-615-616.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...11
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