901
FXUS64 KLCH 070601
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1201 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- WITH STABLE CONDITIONS AND AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOG
WILL LIKELY BECOME AN ISSUE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
- A SHARP CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH SUNDAY BRINGING
UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK. PORTIONS OF THE
REGION MAY RECEIVE THEIR FIRST FREEZE.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL
BRING A SLIGHT UPTICK IN SHOWERS. TONIGHT, THE MAIN CONCERN WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE THE POSSIBILITY OF DENSE FOG, BUT A LAYER OF
OVERCAST SKIES WILL LIMIT THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. WE
COULD STILL SEE AREAS OF DENSE FOG FORM TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT,
BUT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY DOES NOT SEEM NEEDED. DENSE FOG WILL ALSO
BE A CONCERN ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
FOR TODAY AND SATURDAY, WE ARE LOOKING AT MORE OF THE SAME WITH
FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST EVEN AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-80S.
CONDITIONS WILL FINALLY START TO CHANGE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS A
SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL FINALLY KICK A COLD FRONT SOUTH. THIS
FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH OF A RAINMAKER, BUT IT WILL DRIVE
OUR TEMPERATURE DOWN BY AROUND 15 DEGREES.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
WHILE SUNDAY WILL SEE THE START OF THE COLD AIR, THE BULK OF THE
COLD AIR WON’T ARRIVE UNTIL MONDAY, WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S,
EVEN DOWN TO THE COAST. THE LOWS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MID- TO
UPPER-30S. TUESDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE FORECAST, WITH
THE DETERMINISTIC FORECAST NOW SHOWING TEMPS BELOW FREEZING ALL
THE WAY DOWN TO HWY 190, WITH LOWS IN THE 20S FOR CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. IT IS SAFE TO ASSUME THAT A FREEZE WARNING WILL BE
NEEDED EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION ABOUT
WHETHER IT WILL BE NEEDED ON MONDAY OR TUESDAY.
UNFORTUNATELY FOR THOSE THAT LOVE THE COLD, THIS COLD SNAP WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED AS THE POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED
ALONG THE EAST COAST, PULLING WARM GULF AIR INTO OUR REGION. BY
THURSDAY, OUR HIGHS WILL BE BACK IN THE 80S. THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PACKAGE, RAIN WILL BE SPARSE, WITH LESS THAN A TENTH OF
AN INCH EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
DENSE FOG IS CAUSING MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION, WITH LIFR VIS RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED CLOSE TO SUNRISE.
AFTER SUNRISE, CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
CALM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS WILL QUICKLY RISE WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS AND SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 25 KNOTS. WAVES
WILL RISE IN RESPONSE TO THE WINDS WITH HEIGHTS OF 4 TO 7 FEET. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY, AND A
GALE WARNING ISN’T OUT OF THE QUESTION BUT LOOKS UNLIKELY AT THIS
TIME.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT,
BRINGING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM SUNDAY - WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 60 84 55 67 / 0 0 20 0
LCH 65 83 61 70 / 0 0 20 10
LFT 64 83 61 70 / 0 0 20 10
BPT 64 85 60 72 / 0 0 20 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...14
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