541
FXUS64 KLCH 072327
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
527 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- WITH STABLE CONDITIONS AND AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOG
WILL LIKELY BECOME AN ISSUE AGAIN TONIGHT.
- A SHARP CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH SUNDAY BRINGING
UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK. PORTIONS OF THE
REGION MAY RECEIVE THEIR FIRST FREEZE.
- WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY RETURN TO THE
FORECAST STARTING THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 524 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE WARM WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A SURFACE LOW IS APPROACHING OUT OF TX,
TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AS IT NEARS. AS A RESULT,
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE AND HAVE BEEN A BIT GUSTY THIS MORNING.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW, WE CAN EXPECT WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO 60S.
TONIGHT WE COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF DENSE FOG AS THE WINDS CALM
AND SKIES START TO CLEAR OUT A LITTLE, HOWEVER MODEL GUIDANCE IS
NOT SHOWING A STRONG ENOUGH SIGNAL FOR WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG.
ISSUANCE IS LIKELY, HOWEVER HOW FAR WEST THE ADVISORY WILL GO WILL
BE DETERMINED IN THE SUBSEQUENT FORECAST. REGARDLESS OF ADVISORY
ISSUANCE, IT IS ADVISED TO COMMUTE CAREFULLY EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.
OUR FIRST TASTE OF WINTER WILL BE COMING THIS WEEKEND WITH A COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO HELP WITH OUR DRY SPELL, WITH
PRECIP CHANCES REMAINING AT OR BELOW 20 PERCENT. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING, TEMPERATURES WILL SHARPLY DROP INTO THE MID 30S TO
UPPER 40 WITH APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S
THANKS TO ELEVATED NORTHERLY WINDS. IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT A
FREEZE WATCH/WARNING WILL BE NEEDED AT THIS TIME FOR THAT TIME
PERIOD, HOWEVER IT BEARS WATCHING OVER THE COMING DAYS.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 524 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
BY THE START OF THE WORK WEEK, THE COLD FRONT WILL BE OVER THE
GULF WATERS WITH AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN PLAINS. WINDS WILL STILL BE A BIT ELEVATED BUT WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MET/EXCEEDED. WE WILL SEE,
HOWEVER, COOLER AND DRIER AIR CONTINUE TO FILTER IN. HIGHS ON
MONDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET HIGHER THAN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA, WITH LOWS RADIATIONALLY COOLING INTO THE LOW TO MID
30S THAT NIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND NEARLY CALM WINDS. MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING THE HIGH WILL BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD,
LEADING TO THOSE CALM WINDS. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THERE IS A
HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF FREEZE WATCH/WARNING ISSUANCE FOR PARTS OF
INTERIOR SETX AND CENLA, WITH A 40 TO 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF
EXPERIENCING SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES. OVER THE DAY TUESDAY, THE
HIGH WILL BE CENTERING ITSELF OVER THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN GULF
COAST, WITH SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW RETURNING. WE WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES INCREASE OVER THE MID TO END OF THE WEEK PERIOD,
GETTING TO JUST UNDER 10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 524 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE NIGHT WILL QUICKLY DROP TO MVFR THEN
IFR AS FOG FORMS ACROSS THE REGION. TONIGHT ACADIANA IS MOST
LIKELY TO HAVE THE DENSEST FOG WITH VIS EXPECTED AROUND 1/4SM IN
THE EARLY MORNING.
AFTER SUNRISE CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR WITH WINDS FROM THE SOUTH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 60 84 54 67 / 0 0 10 0
LCH 65 83 60 70 / 0 0 10 0
LFT 64 83 60 70 / 0 10 20 10
BPT 65 84 59 71 / 0 0 10 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...87
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...14
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