445
FXUS64 KLCH 080603
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1203 AM CST SAT NOV 8 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- WITH STABLE CONDITIONS AND AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOG
WILL LIKELY BECOME AN ISSUE AGAIN TONIGHT.
- A SHARP CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH SUNDAY BRINGING
UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK. PORTIONS OF THE
REGION MAY RECEIVE THEIR FIRST FREEZE.
- GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR OUTER COASTAL WATERS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CST SAT NOV 8 2025
WE ARE STILL ON TRACK FOR THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE YEAR AS A
ROBUST COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY.
TONIGHT WE ARE LOOKING AT ANOTHER ROUND OF DENSE FOG AS A
COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES, HIGH DEW POINTS, AND LIGHT WINDS ALL
POINT TO A HIGH PROBABILITY OF ANOTHER DENSE FOG ADVISORY. MOST OF
SATURDAY WILL BE HOT AS SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE TO PUMP WARM, MOIST
GULF AIR INTO THE REGION. DEW POINTS WILL TOUCH THE 70S WHILE
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S. WE COULD SEE TEMPERATURES
GO INTO THE UPPER 80S DUE TO COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. SATURDAY NIGHT WE WILL SEE THE COLD FRONT SWEEP ACROSS THE
CWA. UNFORTUNATELY, RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE LESS THAN 20% WITH
RAINFALL TOTALS LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL BE THE FIRST TOUCH OF WINTER AS TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET 10
TO 15 DEGREES. SUNDAY WILL ALSO SEE AN ELEVATED RISK FOR FIRE
WEATHER AS THE COLD, DRY AIR MOVES SOUTH. A RED FLAG WATCH MAY
NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE CWA AS ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS
WHEN COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CST SAT NOV 8 2025
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE 30S AND THERE IS A
DECENT CHANCE (~30%) WE WILL SEE THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE YEAR.
OVERNIGHT MONDAY AND GOING INTO TUESDAY THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL DROP TEMPERATURES BELOW 32 IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. DOWN TO THE COAST, TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S. IN ADDITION TO
THE COLD, VERY DRY AIR WILL DROP OUR DEW POINTS INTO THE 20S WITH
MINIMUM RH VALUES AROUND 20% ACROSS THE REGION.
BEHIND THE FRONT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL
CAUSE OUR WINDS TO BE FROM THE SOUTH AND WILL LEAD TO STEADILY
RISING TEMPERATURES. BY WEDNESDAY OUR HIGHS WILL BE BACK IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S AND INTO THE 80S BY THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
ALSO RISE QUICKLY AND WILL BE IN THE 60S UNTIL THE END OF THE
WEEK. ALOFT WE WILL BE IN A STABLE ZONAL PATTERN WITH THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN COMING ON FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CST SAT NOV 8 2025
ONCE AGAIN, THE MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF
DENSE FOG ACROSS THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG EXPECTED TO
FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT. LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
DAYTIME WITH VFR CONDITIONS. LATE SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE A WIND SHIFT AND
INCREASING WINDS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CST SAT NOV 8 2025
THE CALM CONDITIONS OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL RAPIDLY
DETERIORATE ON SATURDAY EVENING AND INTO THE NIGHT AS A ROBUST
COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE. WHILE STORMS WON’T BE AN ISSUE, WINDS
WILL QUICKLY INCREASE WITH SUSTAINED NORTH WINDS OVER 25 KNOTS AND
FREQUENT GUSTS OF 35 KNOTS. A GALE WATCH MAY BE ISSUED FOR THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE
NEEDED STARTING SATURDAY EVENING. WAVES WILL BUILD IN RESPONSE TO
THE WINDS, BUILDING BETWEEN 6 AND 10 FEET SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WINDS
WILL START TO SUBSIDE ON MONDAY NIGHT, FALLING BELOW 20 KNOTS BY
TUESDAY MORNING.
LOW WATER ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED ON MONDAY AS THE NORTH WIND
PUSHES WATERS OFFSHORE BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO DECIDE ON ONE WAY OR
THE OTHER.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CST SAT NOV 8 2025
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SUNDAY WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER AS
THE DRY COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION AND VERY DRY AIR WILL
FOLLOW. DEW POINTS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S WHILE MINIMUM RH
VALUES WILL BE AROUND 30%. IN ADDITION, 20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE FROM
THE NORTH AROUND 15 KNOTS. WHILE SUNDAY WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN
FOR FIRE WEATHER, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER WILL BE AN ISSUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TO THE END OF NEXT WORK
WEEK, NO MEASURABLE RAIN IS EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 53 67 33 54 / 0 0 0 0
LCH 59 71 40 58 / 0 0 0 0
LFT 59 69 37 55 / 10 0 0 0
BPT 58 72 38 58 / 0 0 0 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
GMZ470-472-475.
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...14
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