570
FXUS64 KLCH 090715
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
115 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- A SHARP CANADIAN COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THIS MORNING WILL
BRING UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES INTO THE NEW WEEK. PORTIONS
OF THE REGION WILL LIKELY RECEIVE THEIR FIRST FREEZE MONDAY
NIGHT.
- STRONG GRADIENT WINDS FROM SURGING HIGH PRESSURE HAS RESULTED
IN A WIND ADVISORY OVER LOWER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA TODAY WITH A GALE WARNING OFFSHORE IN PLACE THROUGH
TONIGHT.
- A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN PLACE TODAY GIVEN ELEVATED WINDS, LOW
RH, AND ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS MAKING DRY FUELS EASILY
IGNITABLE.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2025
A VERY POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WITH SURFACE LOW MIGRATING OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES THIS
AFTERNOON. DESCENDING SOUTH ALONG THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
IS A ROBUST SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE OFFSHORE
THIS MORNING WITH WINDS/GUSTS BECOMING FAIRLY STRONG BY MID
MORNING. WORTH NOTING DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
INLAND AGAINST THE SLACK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL
FACILITATE WINDS / GUST WITHIN ADVISORY CRITERIA. THOSE WITH HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES OR LOOSE HOLIDAY DECORATIONS WILL WANT TO TAKE
EXTRA CAUTION THROUGH THIS EVENING WHERE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY EASE
OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONALLY A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN PUT IN PLACE
FOR TODAY GIVEN VERY LOW DEWPOINTS AND STRONG WINDS. COMBINED WITH
RECENT RAINFALL DEFICITS AND DEVELOPING DROUGHT CONDITIONS, DRY
FUELS WILL BE PRIMED TO IGNITE AND SPREAD QUICKLY DURING THIS
PERIOD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60'S BEFORE QUICKLY DROPPING
INTO THE 30'S TONIGHT. NOT LOOKING AT FREEZING CONDITIONS JUST YET
AS WINDS WILL STILL BE ELEVATED.
MONDAY, THE RIDGING BEGINS TO CONSOLIDATE AS THE PARENT HIGH
PRESSURE CELL LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STARTS TO BROADEN
TOWARD THE COAST. DRY CONDITIONS AND BREEZY NORTH WINDS WILL WARRANT
FURTHER FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WHERE MINRH WILL DROP TOWARD THE 20-
30% RANGE AREAWIDE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO EASE BY NIGHTFALL. THIS
PRESENTS OUR FIRST LIKELY FREEZE OF THE SEASON FOR INTERIOR
LOCATIONS WAKING UP TUESDAY MORNING. WORTH NOTING UPPER 20'S HAVE
BEEN CONSISTENT IN THE LAST FEW FORECAST CYCLES ACROSS CENLA WHILE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL TREND AS FAR SOUTH AS THE ATCHAFALAYA
BASIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM INTO THE 60'S BY MID-
AFTERNOON WITH ONSHORE FLOW RESUMING BY THE EVENING. THIS WILL
BRING MORE SEASONABLE LOWS TO THE REGION WITH THE THREAT OF DENSE
FOG TOO.
KOWALSKI / 30
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2025
BY WEDNESDAY, THE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BREAKDOWN OVER THE
SECONUS KEEPING AN ONSHORE FLOW ESTABLISHED HERE LOCALLY. CONDITIONS
WILL TREND MILD TO WARM DURING THE AFTERNOONS IN THE UPPER 70'S WITH
MINRH LESS CONDUCIVE FOR FIRE WEATHER RANGING 45-60% THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WORK WEEK AHEAD. MEANWHILE LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 50'S FOR MOST. DO WANT TO ADD WHILE THE SURFACE
CONDITIONS DO MOISTEN UP INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND, THERE IS NO
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL CHANCES IN OUR 7 DAY FORECAST. THEREFORE,
CAUTION SHOULD BE TAKEN DURING ANY OUTDOOR BURNING- WHERE
PERMITTED- AS VEGETATION AND OTHER FUELS FURTHER DRY OUT.
KOWALSKI / 30
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2025
FOG AND GROUND BR WILL CONTINUE TO HANG ACROSS THE AREA REMAINING
PATCHY, BUT PERIODICALLY DENSE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A DRY COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BY THE TWILIGHT HOURS USHERING IN STRONG
WINDS FROM THE NORTH AND QUICKLY CLEARING OUT AND VIS REDUCTIONS.
WINDS LIKELY TO GUST OUT OF THE NORTH 20-30KTS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2025
A ROBUST COLD FRONT MOVES IS SURGING OFFSHORE TODAY. WHILE IT IS
NOT ANTICIPATED FOR STORMS TO BE AN ISSUE, WINDS WILL QUICKLY
INCREASE WITH SUSTAINED NORTH WINDS OVER 20-25 KNOTS AND FREQUENT
GUSTS OF 35 KNOTS. A GALE WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE INLAND LAKES
AND BAYS. WAVES WILL BUILD IN RESPONSE TO THE WINDS, BUILDING
BETWEEN 6 AND 10 FEET TODAY AND MONDAY. WINDS WILL START TO
EASE ON MONDAY NIGHT, FALLING BELOW 20 KNOTS BY TUESDAY MORNING.
A LOW WATER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS GUSTY
NORTH WINDS PUSH WATERS OFFSHORE IN COMBINATION WITH LOW TIDE
CYCLE. IT IS POSSIBLE WATERS WILL BRIEFLY FALL TOWARD 1 FT BELOW
MLLW MONDAY MORNING, BUT AN ADVISORY IS LESS LIKELY WITH EASING
WINDS.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. AS A RESULT, WE COULD SEE
ELEVATED ONSHORE FLOW AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MARINE FOG.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2025
THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A FIRE WEATHER WARNING
FOR TODAY DUE TO CRITICAL COMBINATION OF ENHANCED WINDS, LOW RH,
AND DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST FROM TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TODAY WILL BE THE
BIGGEST CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER AS THE DRY COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION AND VERY DRY AIR WILL FOLLOW. DEW POINTS WILL
DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S WHILE MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE
AROUND 25 TO 35%. IN ADDITION, 20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
NORTH AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35. WHILE TODAY WILL BE
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER WILL BE
AN ISSUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TO THE END
OF NEXT WORK WEEK, NO MEASURABLE RAIN IS EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 67 33 53 28 / 0 0 0 0
LCH 71 39 57 36 / 0 0 0 0
LFT 69 37 53 31 / 10 0 0 0
BPT 72 38 58 38 / 0 0 0 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR LAZ027>033-044-045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-
252>254.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR LAZ044-045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR TXZ180-201-259>262-515-516-615-616.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR TXZ515-516-615-616.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 6 AM CST
MONDAY FOR GMZ430-432-435-436.
LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR GMZ430-432-435-436.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 2 PM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ450-452-
455-470-472-475.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...30
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