464
FXUS64 KLCH 091117
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
517 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A SHARP CANADIAN COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THIS MORNING WILL
BRING UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES INTO THE NEW WEEK. PORTIONS
OF THE REGION WILL LIKELY RECEIVE THEIR FIRST FREEZE MONDAY
NIGHT.
- STRONG GRADIENT WINDS FROM SURGING HIGH PRESSURE HAS RESULTED
IN A WIND ADVISORY OVER LOWER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA TODAY WITH A GALE WARNING OFFSHORE IN PLACE THROUGH
TONIGHT.
- A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN PLACE TODAY GIVEN ELEVATED WINDS, LOW
RH, AND ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS MAKING DRY FUELS EASILY
IGNITABLE.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 514 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2025
A VERY POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WITH SURFACE LOW MIGRATING OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES THIS
AFTERNOON. DESCENDING SOUTH ALONG THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
IS A ROBUST SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE OFFSHORE
THIS MORNING WITH WINDS/GUSTS BECOMING FAIRLY STRONG BY MID
MORNING. WORTH NOTING DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
INLAND AGAINST THE SLACK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL
FACILITATE WINDS / GUST WITHIN ADVISORY CRITERIA. THOSE WITH HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES OR LOOSE HOLIDAY DECORATIONS WILL WANT TO TAKE
EXTRA CAUTION THROUGH THIS EVENING WHERE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY EASE
OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONALLY A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN PUT IN PLACE
FOR TODAY GIVEN VERY LOW DEWPOINTS AND STRONG WINDS. COMBINED WITH
RECENT RAINFALL DEFICITS AND DEVELOPING DROUGHT CONDITIONS, DRY
FUELS WILL BE PRIMED TO IGNITE AND SPREAD QUICKLY DURING THIS
PERIOD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60'S BEFORE QUICKLY DROPPING
INTO THE 30'S TONIGHT. NOT LOOKING AT FREEZING CONDITIONS JUST YET
AS WINDS WILL STILL BE ELEVATED.
MONDAY, THE RIDGING BEGINS TO CONSOLIDATE AS THE PARENT HIGH
PRESSURE CELL LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STARTS TO BROADEN
TOWARD THE COAST. DRY CONDITIONS AND BREEZY NORTH WINDS WILL WARRANT
FURTHER FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WHERE MINRH WILL DROP TOWARD THE 20-
30% RANGE AREAWIDE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO EASE BY NIGHTFALL. THIS
PRESENTS OUR FIRST LIKELY FREEZE OF THE SEASON FOR INTERIOR
LOCATIONS WAKING UP TUESDAY MORNING. WORTH NOTING UPPER 20'S HAVE
BEEN CONSISTENT IN THE LAST FEW FORECAST CYCLES ACROSS CENLA WHILE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL TREND AS FAR SOUTH AS THE ATCHAFALAYA
BASIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM INTO THE 60'S BY MID-
AFTERNOON WITH ONSHORE FLOW RESUMING BY THE EVENING. THIS WILL
BRING MORE SEASONABLE LOWS TO THE REGION WITH THE THREAT OF DENSE
FOG TOO.
KOWALSKI / 30
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 514 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2025
BY WEDNESDAY, THE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BREAKDOWN OVER THE
SECONUS KEEPING AN ONSHORE FLOW ESTABLISHED HERE LOCALLY. CONDITIONS
WILL TREND MILD TO WARM DURING THE AFTERNOONS IN THE UPPER 70'S WITH
MINRH LESS CONDUCIVE FOR FIRE WEATHER RANGING 45-60% THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WORK WEEK AHEAD. MEANWHILE LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 50'S FOR MOST. DO WANT TO ADD WHILE THE SURFACE
CONDITIONS DO MOISTEN UP INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND, THERE IS NO
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL CHANCES IN OUR 7 DAY FORECAST. THEREFORE,
CAUTION SHOULD BE TAKEN DURING ANY OUTDOOR BURNING- WHERE
PERMITTED- AS VEGETATION AND OTHER FUELS FURTHER DRY OUT.
KOWALSKI / 30
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 514 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2025
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS SOUTH LA BETWEEN
LCH AND LFT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY PROGRESS
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, ALLOWING WINDS TO TURN
NORTH (WHERE THEY HAVE NOT ALREADY). WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AND
GUSTY RATHER QUICKLY THIS MORNING, WITH STRONG GUSTS AROUND
25-30KTS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON, RELAXING
SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING WITH SUNSET. WINDS AT AEX WILL BE A BIT
LOWER BUT STILL BREEZY. OTHERWISE, CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL WITH NO
OTHER CONCERNS EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 67 33 53 28 / 0 0 0 0
LCH 71 39 57 36 / 0 0 0 0
LFT 69 37 53 31 / 10 0 0 0
BPT 72 38 58 38 / 0 0 0 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR LAZ027>033-044-045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-
252>254.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR LAZ044-045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR TXZ180-201-259>262-515-516-615-616.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR TXZ515-516-615-616.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ430-432-435-
436.
LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ430-432-
435-436.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ450-452-
455-470-472-475.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 2 PM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ450-452-
455-470-472-475.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ450-452-455-470-472-
475.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...17
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