950
FXUS64 KLCH 242315
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
515 PM CST MON NOV 24 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY BRINGING A
WARM AND MOIST GULF AIR INLAND.
- POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SOME SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING THROUGH
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WORKS WITH A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE.
- A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY BRINGING DRIER AND
SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS FOR THANKSGIVING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 513 PM CST MON NOV 24 2025
MID-MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT DRAPED ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST BACK TOWARDS A COLD FRONT WHICH IS DRAPED ACROSS
CENTRAL TX. ALOFT, A SHORTWAVE IS NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS,
WITH W/SW FLOW OVERHEAD. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD TODAY
INTO TONIGHT, DRAGGING THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH IT. THE WARM FRONT
SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS, WHILE THE COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS TX. THIS WILL
BRING ABOUT A MESSY WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH ROUGHLY THE NEXT 24
HOURS, FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND PLEASANT WEATHER THROUGH THE LATER
HALF OF THE WEEK.
TODAY, ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY, ALONG WITH POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON, WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTH
ACROSS THE CWA UNTIL A STRONGER LINE OF STORMS EVENTUALLY MAKES ITS
WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS LINE SHOULD ARRIVE IN OUR
SE TX COUNTIES AROUND THE 9PM HOUR, PROGRESSING EAST FROM THERE
OVERNIGHT. CAMS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN THE LINE HOLDING TOGETHER
UNTIL AROUND 3/4AM WHEN INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A GOOD MAJORITY OF ONGOING CONVECTION TO SLOWLY DIE OUT
THEREAFTER THROUGH SUNRISE. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED OUR
COUNTIES/PARISHES ALONG AND NORTH OF I-190 IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER, WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA TO THE COAST INCLUDED
IN THE MARGINAL RISK. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER AREA POSSIBLE,
WITH THE HIGHEST RISK BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. IN
ADDITION, WPC HAS OUTLINED ALL OF SE TX AS WELL AS PARTS OF WEST LA
IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING.
WHILE CONVECTION WILL LARGELY TAPER OFF PRIOR TO SUNRISE, AT LEAST
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LINGER OVER CENTRAL LA
TOMORROW MORNING, GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
DRY AIR SLOWLY FILTERS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. SPC IS CARRYING A
MARGINAL SEVERE RISK FOR EASTERN PARTS OF OUR AREA TOMORROW HOWEVER,
THIS RISK LOOKS MINIMAL AT BEST. BY TOMORROW NIGHT THE FRONT WILL
HAVE FULLY CLEARED THE FORECAST AREA, WITH A COOLER AND DRIER
AIRMASS FILTERING IN IN ITS WAKE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY.
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING PWATS ARE FORECASTED TO BE NEAR OR BELOW THE
10TH PERCENTILE (0.37"), ALLOWING OVERNIGHT LOWS TO FALL INTO THE
MID 30S TO LOW 40S FOR THANKSGIVING MORNING.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 513 PM CST MON NOV 24 2025
THE POST-FRONTAL DRY AND COOL AIRMASS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK AS POST-FRONTAL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE MS
RIVER VALLEY AND SE US, BRINGING SEASONAL DAYTIME HIGHS AND COOL
MORNING LOWS ALONG WITH NO PRECIP. UNFORTUNATELY BY THE WEEKEND
MOISTURE RETURNS IN EARNEST AS A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW REDEVELOPS
ALOFT AND SURFACE WINDS TURN BACK TO THE E/SE. A SURGE OF MOISTURE
WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD FROM SOUTH TX/THE SOUTHERN GULF THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH PWATS INCREASING ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE BY SUN
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES RETURN BY SAT AFTERNOON
AND PERSIST THROUGH SUN AND MON AS WELL. THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
BE FAIRLY STRATIFORM IN NATURE, AS NO SURFACE FRONTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE NEARBY AT LEAST INITIALLY. FORTUNATELY, INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES/CLOUD COVER SHOULD HOLD TEMPS IN CHECK THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
SO WHILE IT WILL BE A BIT MUGGY HIGHS SHOULD ONLY BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 513 PM CST MON NOV 24 2025
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH STORMS
BECOMING MORE LIKELY LATER. THIS MAY CAUSE PERIODS OF LOWER VIS
AND CEILINGS TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATING TUESDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 513 PM CST MON NOV 24 2025
BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. TONIGHT, A LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE
THROUGH FOLLOWED BY A WIND SHIFT TO THE W. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND
WESTERLY THROUGH TOMORROW BEFORE TURNING NW TO NW TOMORROW NIGHT
AND INCREASING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US
AND TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVERHEAD. STRONG NORTH WINDS
WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 513 PM CST MON NOV 24 2025
LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY AND BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. A FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO
THE W/NW TOMORROW AND EVENTUALLY TO THE NORTH BY WEDNESDAY,
SLOWLY ADVECTING IN A DRIER AIRMASS. BY WEDNESDAY DRIER AIR WILL
HAVE ARRIVED ALLOWING MINRH VALUES TO FALL INTO THE MID 30S TO MID
40S WED AFTERNOON AND INTO THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S THURS AND FRI.
MOISTURE RETURNS QUICKLY BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 63 78 50 65 / 80 40 10 0
LCH 67 80 54 69 / 50 40 10 0
LFT 67 81 55 69 / 50 60 10 0
BPT 66 82 54 70 / 60 30 0 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...05
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page