727
FXUS64 KLCH 250605
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1205 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR A PORTION OF THE REGION THROUGH
1 AM.
- A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON TODAY BRINGING DRIER AND
SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS FOR THANKSGIVING.
- RAIN RETURNS TO THE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY STRETCHED FROM SOUTH TEXAS ACROSS DEEP
EAST TEXAS AND INTO ARKANSANS. BEHIND THE FRONT A COOLER AND DRIER
AIR MASS IS MOVING SOUTHEAST. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR A
PORTION OF THE LOCAL AREA AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ENOUGH
INSTABILITY EXIST ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY IN THE WARM
SECTOR FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO, BUT AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES
EAST CONDITIONS WILL BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL DECREASE ACROSS SE TX BY SUNRISE, HOWEVER CONVECTION
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ACADIANA INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT SOUTH AND EAST LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON, HOWEVER HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S. CAA WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES DOWN AROUND 10 DEGREES BY
WEDNESDAY AND EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO NORMALS BY THANKSGIVING.
THURSDAY'S WEATHER LOOKS DRY AND COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. WINDS
WILL BE NORTHEAST AT 5-10 MPH.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLY BY EARLY
FRIDAY WHICH WILL BEGIN THE WARMING/MOISTENING TREND THAT WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS BY SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LOW OVER THE
ROCKIES. THIS WILL FARTHER INCREASE THE ONSHORE FLOW. MOISTURE AND
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FARTHER BY SUNDAY AS A WEAK COASTAL LOW
MOVES ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
SPOTTY LOWER CEILINGS AND VIS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE MORNING
WHILE CONVECTION WORKS ACROSS THE AREA. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED FROM LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
A LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY FOLLOWED BY A WIND SHIFT
TO THE W. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND WESTERLY THROUGH TODAY BEFORE
TURNING NW TO NW TOMORROW NIGHT AND INCREASING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US AND TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVERHEAD. STRONG NORTH WINDS WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS WILL
THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
A FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE W/NW
AND EVENTUALLY TO THE NORTH BY WEDNESDAY, SLOWLY ADVECTING IN A
DRIER AIRMASS. BY WEDNESDAY DRIER AIR WILL HAVE ARRIVED ALLOWING
MINRH VALUES TO FALL INTO THE MID 30S TO MID 40S WED AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S THURS AND FRI. MOISTURE RETURNS
QUICKLY BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 77 50 64 36 / 20 0 0 0
LCH 81 54 69 42 / 30 0 0 0
LFT 81 54 69 39 / 50 0 0 0
BPT 82 53 70 43 / 20 0 0 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...05
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