223
FXUS64 KLCH 260600
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1200 AM CST WED NOV 26 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE OF THE WEEK.
- RAIN RETURNS TO THE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND WITH AN APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE FROM THE WEST.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER TO RETURN AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST WED NOV 26 2025
THE COLD FRONT YESTERDAY HAS FINALLY EXITED THE AREA AND IS NOW
OFF THE COAST WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT, CURRENTLY ENTERING
THE ARKLATX AREA, EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE AREA LATER THIS
MORNING. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILL IN BEHIND THAT FRONT, WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE AT TO 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THERE IS A CHANCE OF A WIND
ADVISORY BEING NECESSARY ACROSS PARTS OF CENLA AND FOR THE
COUNTIES AND PARISHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. WITH
THE CURRENT FORECAST CONDITIONS SHY OF THE THRESHOLD, ONE WILL NOT
BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME.
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES,
SPECIFICALLY ON THE NIGHT OF THANKSGIVING INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING, WHEN WE ARE EXPECTING THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE
WEEK. IN LOUISIANA, THERE IS A 0-20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SEEING
SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES ALONG AND SOUTH OF HWY190. ACROSS
INTERIOR SETX AND CENLA, THERE IS A 20 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE.
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD OUT OF THE NORTH/
CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, THEN INTO THE MIDWEST OVER
THE DAYTIME HOURS ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO EASTERLY, THEN
EVENTUALLY ESE WINDS AND SLIGHT MOISTURE RETURN FROM FRIDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST WED NOV 26 2025
A PATTERN CHANGE CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM WITH SHOWERS
LIKELY TO RETURN AND REMAIN FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE LONG TERM.
THIS WILL BE KICKED OFF THANKS TO RETURN FLOW AS THE SURFACE HIGH
MAKES ITS WAY TO THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE THIS WEEKEND. ALONG
WITH THAT, ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BE PROGRESSING INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE ELEVATED AND GUSTY AS A TIGHTENED
PRESSURE GRADIENT FORMS IN BETWEEN THE TWO. WHILE IT IS TOO EARLY,
AND FAR TOO UNCERTAIN, TO DISCUSS HAZARDOUS WEATHER PROBABILITIES,
IT WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE REALM TO SEE SOME STRONG STORMS AND
HEAVY RAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO BE AOA THE
90TH PERCENTILE AHEAD AND ALONG A WARM FRONT, WITH A COLD FRONT
TRAILING IT THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL BE WATCHED TO SEE HOW IT
EVOLVES OVER THE COMING DAYS.
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH
BELOW CLIMO NORM TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO PERSIST FROM THE BEGINNING
OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK INTO THE END OF THE LONG TERM. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 50S, WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 30S AND
40S. POPS LINGER IN THE FORECAST DURING THAT TIME FRAME AS WELL
WITH HIGH UNCERTAINITY IN THE FORECAST. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE
DEPICTS A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH FORMING OVER THE S TX GULF ON
MONDAY, HOWEVER GUIDANCE QUICKLY SPLITS AFTER THAT, WITH SOME
MODELS PLACING THE LOW WITH RIDICULOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
DIRECTLY SOUTH OF THE CWA, AND OTHERS PLACING IT SOUTH OF THE FL
PANHANDLE. THIS WILL PLAY A ROLE IN IF AND HOW MUCH PRECIP WE
RECIEVE IN THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THAT WORK WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST WED NOV 26 2025
LIGHT NORTHERLY TO CALM WINDS PREVAIL BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR TO CLEAR SKIES. WE WILL SEE WINDS PICK UP AND BECOME GUST
OVER THE DAY, HOWEVER THIS WILL TAPER OVER THE EVENING HOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST WED NOV 26 2025
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW NORTH WINDS BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT
TOMORROW INTO EARLY THURSDAY. AS A RESULT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS PERIOD FOR ALL GULF WATERS. WINDS RELAX
THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN BY EARLY FRIDAY, WHEN
ANOTHER SCA WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST WED NOV 26 2025
A DRY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION AS A
SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE CENTRAL US. MIN RH VALUES WILL FALL
INTO THE MID 30 TO MID 40S TODAY AND INTO THE UPPER 20 TO MID 30S
BOTH THURS AND FRI. IN ADDITION, BREEZY NORTH WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MOISTURE BEGINS TO QUICKLY
RETURN BY LATE FRI/SAT WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 76 49 63 36 / 10 0 0 0
LCH 80 53 68 42 / 30 0 0 0
LFT 81 53 68 40 / 50 0 0 0
BPT 80 53 70 43 / 10 0 0 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475.
SHORT TERM...87
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...87
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page