175
FXUS64 KLCH 261223
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
623 AM CST WED NOV 26 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE OF THE WEEK.
- RAIN RETURNS TO THE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND WITH AN APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE FROM THE WEST.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER TO RETURN AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CST WED NOV 26 2025
THE COLD FRONT YESTERDAY HAS FINALLY EXITED THE AREA AND IS NOW
OFF THE COAST WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT, CURRENTLY ENTERING
THE ARKLATX AREA, EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE AREA LATER THIS
MORNING. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILL IN BEHIND THAT FRONT, WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE AT TO 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THERE IS A CHANCE OF A WIND
ADVISORY BEING NECESSARY ACROSS PARTS OF CENLA AND FOR THE
COUNTIES AND PARISHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. WITH
THE CURRENT FORECAST CONDITIONS SHY OF THE THRESHOLD, ONE WILL NOT
BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME.
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES,
SPECIFICALLY ON THE NIGHT OF THANKSGIVING INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING, WHEN WE ARE EXPECTING THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE
WEEK. IN LOUISIANA, THERE IS A 0-20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SEEING
SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES ALONG AND SOUTH OF HWY190. ACROSS
INTERIOR SETX AND CENLA, THERE IS A 20 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE.
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD OUT OF THE NORTH/
CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, THEN INTO THE MIDWEST OVER
THE DAYTIME HOURS ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO EASTERLY, THEN
EVENTUALLY ESE WINDS AND SLIGHT MOISTURE RETURN FROM FRIDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CST WED NOV 26 2025
A PATTERN CHANGE CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM WITH SHOWERS
LIKELY TO RETURN AND REMAIN FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE LONG TERM.
THIS WILL BE KICKED OFF THANKS TO RETURN FLOW AS THE SURFACE HIGH
MAKES ITS WAY TO THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE THIS WEEKEND. ALONG
WITH THAT, ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BE PROGRESSING INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE ELEVATED AND GUSTY AS A TIGHTENED
PRESSURE GRADIENT FORMS IN BETWEEN THE TWO. WHILE IT IS TOO EARLY,
AND FAR TOO UNCERTAIN, TO DISCUSS HAZARDOUS WEATHER PROBABILITIES,
IT WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE REALM TO SEE SOME STRONG STORMS AND
HEAVY RAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO BE AOA THE
90TH PERCENTILE AHEAD AND ALONG A WARM FRONT, WITH A COLD FRONT
TRAILING IT THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL BE WATCHED TO SEE HOW IT
EVOLVES OVER THE COMING DAYS.
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH
BELOW CLIMO NORM TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO PERSIST FROM THE BEGINNING
OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK INTO THE END OF THE LONG TERM. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 50S, WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 30S AND
40S. POPS LINGER IN THE FORECAST DURING THAT TIME FRAME AS WELL
WITH HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE
DEPICTS A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH FORMING OVER THE S TX GULF ON
MONDAY, HOWEVER GUIDANCE QUICKLY SPLITS AFTER THAT, WITH SOME
MODELS PLACING THE LOW WITH RIDICULOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
DIRECTLY SOUTH OF THE CWA, AND OTHERS PLACING IT SOUTH OF THE FL
PANHANDLE. THIS WILL PLAY A ROLE IN IF AND HOW MUCH PRECIP WE
RECEIVE IN THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THAT WORK WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CST WED NOV 26 2025
FEW AREAS OF LIGHT GROUND BR DEVELOPING THIS MORNING BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED WHERE WINDS ARE LIGHT. TAFS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS NORTH
SURFACE WINDS PICK UP WITH GUSTS TOWARD 20KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 63 36 60 34 / 0 0 0 0
LCH 68 42 64 40 / 0 0 0 0
LFT 68 40 64 38 / 0 0 0 0
BPT 70 43 66 43 / 0 0 0 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ450-452-455-
470-472-475.
SHORT TERM...87
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...30
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