389
FXUS64 KLCH 270605
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1205 AM CST THU NOV 27 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE OF THE
WEEK.
- RAIN RETURNS TO THE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND WITH AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE WEST.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER TO RETURN AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK, ALONG WITH LINGERING RAIN
CHANCES.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST THU NOV 27 2025
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD (EDITED TO BE JUST TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT),
MAINTAINING DRY, COOL, AND STABLE CONDITIONS.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY TO CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. MINTS
DURING THAT TIME WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF CENLA AND PARTS OF INTERIOR SETX, WITH UPPER
30S TO MID 40S FOR THE COASTAL PARTS OF THE CWA. PATCHY FROST WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN SOME OF OUR NORTHERN ZONES, ESPECIALLY WHERE WINDS
BECOME CALM OVERNIGHT. WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE THURSDAY AFTERNOON,
HIGHS WILL RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
BY FRIDAY, THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD,
POSITIONING ITSELF OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY TO ESE. FROM THERE, WE WILL SEE A MODEST
WARMING TREND, THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW CLIMO NORMS. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY,
HELPING TO LIMIT THOSE TEMPS FROM GETTING ANY HIGHER THAN THE MID
60S. HOWEVER THEY WILL LIMIT HOW LOW MINTS GET THAT NIGHT, WITH
TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE 40S WITH EXCEPTION TO 50S IN COASTAL
SETX.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST THU NOV 27 2025
A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN SHIFT WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
SURFACE HIGH MIGRATES TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC AND A DISTURBANCE
EXITS THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL FORM BETWEEN THE TWO, WITH ELEVATED SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMING
ESTABLISHED. THIS WILL PROMOTE RAPID MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE
REGION BEGINNING SATURDAY, WITH PWATS RISING FROM NEAR SEASONAL
NORMS TO ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE BY THAT EVENING.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY, BECOMING
WIDESPREAD BY SATURDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
IS EXPECTED, AND GIVEN DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT, PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE LIKELY. AS A RESULT, WPC HAS PLACED NEARLY ALL OF
THE CWA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. FOR THE 48 HOUR
PERIOD BEGINNING EARLY SATURDAY, DETERMINISTIC AMOUNTS ARE IN THE
1.4 TO 2 INCH RANGE, WITH THE PROBABILITIES OF OVER 2 INCHES IN
THE 25 TO 55 PERCENT RANGE. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE WEATHER
REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME, A FEW STRONGER STORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
MORNING, HOWEVER SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES
REGARDING POST FRONTAL EVOLUTION. SOME GUIDANCE INTRODUCES A BRIEF
DRYING TREND FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WHILE OTHER SOLUTIONS DEPICT
MOISTURE AND THE FRONT HANGING UP ALONG THE COAST THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THERE SEEMS TO BE SOME CONSENSUS OF THE POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH OR LOW ALONG THE S TX COAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH COULD PROLONG RAIN CHANCES. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY FROM THE SPLIT IN GUIDANCE, CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP
TIMING AND COVERAGE ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK
REMAINS LOW.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST THU NOV 27 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THIS TAF
CYCLE. WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY AROUND 3 TO 10
KTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST THU NOV 27 2025
STRONG GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE
MORNING AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH. WINDS TURN MORE NE AND RELAX SLIGHTLY BY THE
AFTERNOON, WITH THE SCA DROPPING TO A EXERCISE CAUTION AT 18Z.
INTO FRIDAY, WINDS SLOWLY TURN MORE EASTERLY AND INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN, WITH ANOTHER PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST THU NOV 27 2025
BREEZY NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE
REGION. VERY DRY AIR THEN LINGERS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MINRH
VALUES IN THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S. MOISTURE THEN RETURNS RATHER
QUICKLY LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT, WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF COOL
BUT MOIST CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 60 33 59 41 / 0 0 0 10
LCH 64 39 63 49 / 0 0 0 10
LFT 63 38 62 45 / 0 0 0 0
BPT 66 43 65 54 / 0 0 0 20
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ450-452-455-470-
472-475.
SHORT TERM...87
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...87
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