370
FXUS64 KLCH 291801
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1201 PM CST SAT NOV 29 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY WITH POSSIBILITY OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
- A COLD, BRISK, AND CLOUDY DAY CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT
ON SUNDAY.
- A COASTAL LOW WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
AND WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL ON MONDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2025
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING OVERHEAD THIS
AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH AN OCCASIONAL
SPRINKLE.
MID LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL DIP DOWN TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND PUSH A STRONG CANADIAN COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT AND VERY EARLY ON SUNDAY. LOW
LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO ALLOW SOME
DESTABILIZATION OF THE LOW LAYERS ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN GULF
MOISTURE.
PWAT VALUES BY TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR ABOVE 1.5 INCHES,
WHICH IS OVER THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMO, WITH MEAN LAYER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE 80 PERCENT. OVERALL FORCING IS NOT
THE GREATEST BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GET SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS GOING. WITH SOME MODEST MID LEVEL SHEAR AND LAPSE
RATES, SOME STRONG STORMS MAY GET GOING OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO
WESTERN LOUISIANA AND THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
IN THAT AREA TONIGHT.
IF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAN DEVELOP THEY WILL BE HIGHLY EFFICIENT
RAINFALL PRODUCERS, BUT LIMITED INSTABILITY MAY KEEP THAT IN
CHECK. SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING THE
HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH HREF PROBS SHOWING A 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF OVER 3 INCHES AND A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF OVER 5 INCHES.
THEREFORE, A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL BE OUTLINED
FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS TONIGHT FOR MAINLY URBAN POOR
DRAINAGE AREA TYPE FLOODING.
BRISK NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY WILL BRING DOWN MUCH
COOLER AIR. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALOFT KEEPING SKIES ON
THE CLOUDY SIDE WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN.
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS DOWN OUT OF THE PLAINS ON MONDAY, A
COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF AND MOVE
JUST ALONG OR OFF THE COAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL INCREASE ALOFT BRING A DECENT AMOUNT OF GULF MOISTURE OVER
THE COOLER SURFACE CONDITIONS PROVIDING OVER-RUNNING SHOWER
ACTIVITY. SURFACE INSTABILITY IS NOT EXPECTED AS THE SURFACE LOW
IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND, HOWEVER ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND
FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. ONCE AGAIN HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT WITH PWAT ABOVE 1.5
INCHES AND ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE TO GO ALONG WITH MEAN LAYER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY OVER 80 PERCENT. SO A GOOD SOAKER EXPECTED WITH
SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND THEREFORE A MARGINAL
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL BE OUTLINED AGAIN ON MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.
RUA
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2025
ANOTHER CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY AS THE COASTAL LOWS MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE ENDING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK.
WITH EXPECTED MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ON TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION,
RATHER COLD TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WITH FREEZING CONDITIONS
DOWN TO NEAR THE I-10 CORRIDOR.
A REPEAT FOR LATER IN THE WEEK WITH ANOTHER CANADIAN COLD FRONT
SURGING TO THE SOUTH WITH A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF THAT MAY BRING ANOTHER BOUT OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL DURING THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY PERIOD.
RUA
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2025
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH MAINLY MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
FROM AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 30/06Z-12Z TIME FRAME.
BEHIND THE FRONT, BRISK NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
FRONTAL INVERSION WILL TRAP MOISTURE WITH IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH LIGHT RAIN AND MIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
RUA
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2025
MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT ALONG WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH BRISK NORTH WINDS BEHIND BRINGING
THE PROBABILITY OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. ELEVATED
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WITH HIGH RAIN CHANCES AS
A COASTAL LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1133 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2025
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
BRINGING A HIGH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL. MUCH COLDER AND BRISK WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER HIGH CHANCE FOR RAIN ON MONDAY AS A COASTAL
LOW DEVELOPS AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 44 56 37 49 / 80 60 50 90
LCH 54 63 44 56 / 80 80 50 80
LFT 54 61 45 59 / 60 70 40 70
BPT 52 62 44 56 / 80 70 40 90
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ450-
452-455-470-472-475.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...07
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