291
FXUS64 KLCH 061146
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
546 AM CST SAT DEC 6 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AIR MOVING IN OVERHEAD WILL LIMIT RAINFALL POTENTIAL TODAY AND
SUNDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAINFALL WILL BE LOWER ACADIANA.
- HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST OF THE REGION BRINGS MOISTURE AND WARMTH
BACK TO THE REGION INTO SUNDAY BEFORE A SHARP COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH INTO MONDAY.
- DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDWEEK AS A
STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE AREA AND COOL/DRY AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE
REGION.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 532 AM CST SAT DEC 6 2025
ANALYSIS INDICATES SFC HIGH IS LOCATED JUST OVER CENMS WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NOW FULLY CLEAR OF LOUISIANA. IT WAS A VERY COOL DAY TODAY.
AS SUCH, DRY AIR IS LEAKING IN OVERHEAD (SEE IMPROVEMENTS TO PWATS
FROM 12 AND 00Z RAOBS), BUT WITH SURFACE INFLUENCE LARGELY
CHARACTERIZED AS DEEPLY COOL AND MOIST, CLOUD COVER IS GOING
NOWHERE FAST.
UPPER TROF REMAINS IN ITS POSITION, ORIENTED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
FROM THE BAJA PENINSULA TO MINNESOTA, WITH JET INFLUENCE
OVERSPREADING EVERYWHERE EAST OF ITS AXIS. OVER THE FOLLOWING DAYS,
THIS TROF BEGINS SLOWLY EDGING EAST. SURFACE TROUGHINESS BEGINS TO
FORM AND THE JET MAXIMA DESCENDS TOWARDS THE SURFACE. THIS WILL
THROW A FEW MORE DRIZZLY, PIDDLY SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA
TODAY AND PERHAPS SUNDAY DUE TO RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION PASSING
OVERHEAD. WITHIN ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP, NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
ACUTE RAIN BANDING AS THE AIRMASS CONTINUES LOSING THAT DEEP
MOISTURE SUPPORTIVE OF VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL.
SFC HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST TODAY, GOADED ON BY AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGHINESS. THIS WILL RESULT IN QUICK RETURN FLOW AND AIRMASS
MODIFICATION TODAY AND SUNDAY. AS A RESULT, MUCH WARMER, NEAR
NORMAL, TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S SUNDAY.
UPPER PATTERNS BECOME MORE MERIDIONAL INTO THE START OF NEXT WORK
WEEK, SIGNALING THE PROGRESSION OF THE WEATHER PATTERN. A SHARP COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY BRINGING
ABOUT A ROLLERCOASTER OF TEMPERATURES NO ONE BOUGHT A TICKET FOR.
HIGHS IN THE 70S SUNDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO 50S BY MONDAY WITH BRISK
OFFSHORE WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS.
11/CALHOUN
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 532 AM CST SAT DEC 6 2025
THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN SWIFTLY MOVES THINGS ALONG BY TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES QUICKLY EAST OF THE REGION BRINGING ABOUT RETURN
GULF FLOW. COMBINED WITH RIDGING (RISING HEIGHTS) DEVELOPING
OVERHEAD, VERY WARM, ABOVE NORMAL, TEMPS AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP TO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
11/CALHOUN
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 532 AM CST SAT DEC 6 2025
LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE
BOUNDARY RESPONSIBLE PUSHES OFFSHORE. IFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
TO VFR AT BPT, LCH AND AEX BY MID TO LATE MORNING WHERE THEY'LL
REMAIN THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING WHILE LFT AND ARA ARE EXPECTED
TO SEE CEILINGS IMPROVE TO MVFR OVER THE SAME TIME FRAME. LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON LIFTING A WEAK WARM FRONT NORTH FROM THE GULF. THE
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT IFR CEILINGS
REDEVELOPING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATING HIGH
PROBABILITIES OF FOG FORMATION BEGINNING AS EARLY AS 4Z THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. LIFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AT ALL TERMINALS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
JONES
MARINE
ISSUED AT 532 AM CST SAT DEC 6 2025
OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD AGAIN EXACERBATE LOW TIDE CYCLES TODAY AND LOW
WATER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SABINE AND CALCASIEU BAYS DURING
DAYTIME HOURS. THUS, A LOW WATER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 6 PM
TODAY.
SHOWERY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY WHEN
A SHARP COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. VERY STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS WILL
QUICKLY DEVELOP MONDAY MORNING AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE
NEEDED.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 532 AM CST SAT DEC 6 2025
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TODAY ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO
RESUME LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT MUCH WARMER AND MORE
HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY AND SUNDAY BEFORE A SHARP COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY/MONDAY.
EARLY NEXT WEEK DRY AIR WILL REDUCE THE CHANCE OF RAIN TO ZERO WITH
GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE 40 TO 50 PERCENT
RANGE THROUGH THE MIDWEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 61 45 67 38 / 0 0 30 10
LCH 63 52 74 43 / 20 10 30 10
LFT 61 51 73 44 / 30 10 40 20
BPT 65 53 74 42 / 10 10 10 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ430-432.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...66
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