032
FXUS64 KLCH 081815
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1215 PM CST MON DEC 8 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH EASING NORTH WINDS.
- MOISTURE RETURNS THROUGH THE MID TO LATE WEEK BRINGING MILDER
TEMPERATURES, BUT NO ORGANIZED RAINFALL CHANCES TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE END THE WORK WEEK.
- SLIGHTLY COOLER, BUT SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO TREND
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH VERY LOW CHANCES FOR RAINFALL FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST MON DEC 8 2025
A LARGE SHORTWAVE TROUGH BROADENING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
CONTINUE TO FACILITATE COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE THE FRONT ADVANCES FURTHER OFFSHORE. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO EASE TUESDAY MORNING BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
BEFORE SHIFTING ONSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO
CONSOLIDATE OVER THE CAROLINAS. MID TO UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL KEEP
DRY CONTINENTAL AIR ALOFT THROUGH THE MIDWEEK, HOWEVER. THUS,
WITH A DRIER ATMOSPHERE, WE CAN EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TOMORROW
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DAILY HIGHS WILL TREND WARMER TO THE LOW 70'S
BY THIS TIME. HOWEVER, LOWS WILL REMAIN MORE SEASONABLE, DROPPING
DOWN TO THE LOWER 40'S WITH SOME BACKYARDS IN CENLA OBSERVING 30'S
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.
KOWALSKI / 30
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST MON DEC 8 2025
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60'S AS WINDS MIX MORE CONTINENTAL AIR ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WHILE WESTERLY COMPONENTS ALOFT INCREASE. ADDITIONALLY,
ONSHORE MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK TROUGH
DEEPENING OFF THE SIERRA MADRES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. THAT SAID,
IT APPEARS MAJORITY OF GUIDANCES KEEPS THIS FEATURE WELL SOUTH OF
E'RN TX AND LA SO POPS REMAIN NEGLIGIBLE. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES
AND DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE TOWARD THE MID 70'S AND LOW 60'S,
RESPECTIVELY. PROGRESSING THROUGH THE WEEKEND, CONDITIONS STILL
APPEAR TO TREND DRY AT THE SURFACE WITH THE TROUGH MIGRATING EAST
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. IT'S WORTH NOTING AN ELEMENT OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH REGARDS TO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. AS IT STANDS IN THE
FORECAST, MILD CONDITIONS ARE IN THE WORKS WITH AN INCREASE IN
AFTERNOON CLOUDCOVER, HOWEVER, RAINFALL APPEARS TO KEEP SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. SOME DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAVE BEEN
SUGGESTIVE THAT THE BROAD TROUGH IN THE GULF LIFTS A BIT FURTHER
NORTH TOWARD THE COAST, BUT GIVEN THE DISTANCE BETWEEN THE
UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND, THE PRACTICALITY OF THIS
SOLUTION IS STRETCHED.
KOWALSKI / 30
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST MON DEC 8 2025
CONDITIONS WILL TREND TOWARD VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CEILINGS
CONTINUE TO HANG IN MVFR RANGE ACROSS ACADIANA TERMINAL WHICH MAY
TAKE UNTIL EVENING BEFORE CLEARING OUT BKN SKIES. OTHERWISE
TERMINALS TO THE WEST OF LFT / ARA SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. CALM WINDS EXPECTED NEAR DAWN WHICH MAY LEAD TO
SOME REDUCED VIS ACROSS CENTRAL LA, BUT DENSE FOG IS NOT
ANTICIPATED. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE DAY OF THE 09TH.
30
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST MON DEC 8 2025
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS
THROUGH 6PM. NORTH WINDS WILL EASE THIS EVENING ALLOWING
CONDITIONS TO LOWER THROUGH TUESDAY AS WINDS BECOME NE WITH
VARIABLE COMPONENTS. WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE
GAINING VARIABLE COMPONENTS ONCE AGAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST MON DEC 8 2025
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE NOT OVERLY ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE
IMPROVEMENT IN GROUND MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINS. BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL EASE THIS EVENING AND REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
AN INCREASE OF GULF MOISTURE WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH BRIEF ONSHORE WINDS LASTING THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS UNDER BROADENING HIGH PRESSURE RETURN THURSDAY. AT
THIS TIME THERE ARE NO NOTABLE CHANCES FOR RAIN OVER THE NEXT 6
DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 54 31 59 39 / 0 0 0 0
LCH 58 35 60 46 / 0 0 0 0
LFT 56 34 59 42 / 0 0 0 0
BPT 60 38 62 47 / 0 0 0 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
GMZ450-452- 455-470-472-475.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...30
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