037
FXUS64 KLCH 090602
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1202 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND LIGHT WINDS
RETURN OFF THE GULF.
- A DRY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES
QUICKLY MODERATE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR RAINFALL.
- ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS SCHEDULED FOR SUNDAY THAT MAY BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CST MON DEC 8 2025
COLD AIR ADVECTION CLOUD DECK MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
LOUISIANA PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL MAKE OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES TRICKY AS WHEN CLOUDS MOVE IN TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
STEADY. THEREFORE, BUMP UP THE OVERNIGHTS A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR
THE LOUISIANA LOCATIONS. STILL SOME QUESTION IF THE CLOUDS CAN
MAKE IT ALL THE WAY TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS FOR SUNRISE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY AND
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL TURNING OF THE WINDS TO BECOME MORE
EASTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY TODAY THEN SOUTHEASTERLY ON WEDNESDAY.
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALOFT AND THEREFORE GULF MOISTURE
RETURN WILL BE SHALLOW WITH SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURE AND
MODEST INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY.
DURING THE NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING SOME PATCHY
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND EXPECTED LIGHT
WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.
WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PROVIDED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EAST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI, A SHORT WAVE WILL DROP ON DOWN LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT THAT WILL BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH IT. COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AS MOISTURE REMAINS SHALLOW
WITH MEAN LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY BETWEEN 100H-50H BELOW 40 PERCENT.
SEASONALLY COOL TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY BEFORE
HIGH QUICKLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS OFF THE GULF
RETURN.
07/RUA
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CST MON DEC 8 2025
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE BEGINNING
OF THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST COAST
AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. INCREASING FLOW OFF
THE GULF WILL BRING ABOUT WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS DURING SUNDAY. THERE IS SOME
INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH PWAT VALUES GETTING ABOVE THE 75TH
PERCENTILE AND MEAN LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY NEARING 70 PERCENT.
ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL FORCING AT THIS TIME IS
PROGGED TO BE NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE. THEREFORE, WILL KEEP POPS ON THE
LOW SIDE FOR THE SUNDAY FRONTAL PASSAGE.
STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW COLD THE AIR MASS WILL BE BEHIND THIS
FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THE PUSH OF THE COLDER
AIR WILL BE OFF TO THE EAST OR STAY TO THE NORTHEAST. 75TH-25TH
WHISKER PLOTS FROM THE NBM SHOW TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES OF SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY OF SOME 20+ DEGREES. AT THIS TIME WILL GO WITH THE
DETERMINISTIC NBM NUMBERS THAT ARE CLOSE TO THE MEAN.
07/RUA
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST MON DEC 8 2025
COLD AIR ADVECTION STRATO-CU SHIELD IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST INTO
THE FORECAST AREA AND OVER THE KAEX/KLFT/KARA TERMINALS WITH MVFR
CEILINGS. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO HANG AROUND THROUGH THE
NIGHT. QUESTION IS FAR WEST THIS CLOUD DECK WILL GET. AT THIS POINT
IT SHOULD GET TO KLCH BETWEEN 09/07-10Z. WILL KEEP KBPT VFR FOR NOW
BUT WILL PLACE SOME SCT015 BY 09/11Z.
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO BREAK UP BY MID MORNING TUESDAY AS COLD
AIR ADVECTION WANES AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. MAINLY
VFR IS THEN EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY WITH LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS.
07/RUA
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CST MON DEC 8 2025
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST TODAY ALLOWING FOR A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS, THEN BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHERLY ON WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY TO
BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODEST OFFSHORE WINDS BEFORE WINDS
AGAIN BECOME ONSHORE BY THE END OF THE WEEK. NO SIGNIFICANT SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CST MON DEC 8 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY ALLOWING LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO RETURN AND WITH THAT SOME SHALLOW GULF MOISTURE.
MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE IN THE 50 TO 55 PERCENT
RANGE TODAY, THEN NEAR 60 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY. DESPITE THE INCREASE
IN MOISTURE, NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY SHALLOW FOG DURING THE LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 54 34 58 38 / 0 0 0 0
LCH 58 37 59 45 / 0 0 0 0
LFT 56 37 59 42 / 0 0 0 0
BPT 60 39 62 47 / 0 0 0 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...07
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