337
FXUS64 KLCH 180610
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1210 AM CST THU DEC 18 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND BRING
COOLER, MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY.
- WARMTH AND HUMIDITY QUICKLY RETURN SATURDAY AND BEYOND AS
ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
- STRONG UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE CONUS LATE IN THE PERIOD,
REINFORCING THE UNSEASONABLE WARMTH AS WE APPROACH CHRISTMAS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CST THU DEC 18 2025
AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL SLOWLY ERODE THIS MORNING, HOWEVER, CLOUD
COVER WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND FOR MOST OF THE DAY. HIGHS WILL CLIMB
INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. ONSHORE WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT OUT OF
THE NORTH AFTER DUSK. INLAND, THESE BREEZES WILL BE MODERATE AT
BEST, HOWEVER, OFFSHORE WATERS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. SKIES ARE FORECAST TO CLEAR
OVERNIGHT ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 40'S. CONDITIONS
WILL THEN SLOWLY MODERATE TO THE LOW-MID 60'S FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
WINDS VEER EAST THEN SOUTH BY NIGHTFALL. THUS, ANOTHER ROUND OF
DENSE FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS
A HUMID WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HEREAFTER, WE
ESTABLISH A LONGSTANDING ONSHORE REGIME AS LOCAL HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS OVER THE CAROLINAS. SOUTHERLY ADVECTION AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL YIELD MILD / WARM TEMPERATURES TO REGION IN THE MID
70S.
KOWALSKI / 30
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CST THU DEC 18 2025
ESTABLISHED ONSHORE SOUTHERLY ADVECTION CONTINUES INTO THE LONG
RANGE WHILE ACTIVE COLD WEATHER SYSTEMS REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN 48.
UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE BEGINS TO BUILD FURTHER ON SUNDAY OVER
MEXICO. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE GULF MAY HELP SQUEEZE
A FEW SHOWERS, THOUGH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE AMOUNT
OF FALLING PRECIP WELL BELOW WHAT WOULD BE CONSIDERED A WETTING
RAINFALL. WILL KEEP LOW END CHANCES FOR THE WEEK WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE BUT AT THIS TIME DETERMINISTIC REMAINS A LITTLE TOO
SENSITIVE TO DRAW PRECIP DESPITE MID AND UPPER LEVEL PROFILES BEING
VERY MARGINAL.
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING WILL FURTHER BUILD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH
INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL START THE WORK WEEK OFF DRY ON
MONDAY. MEANWHILE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS ALONG THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WHILE STILL EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE TN VALLEY BY THE MIDWEEK,
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY AND MILD ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHS
IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50'S THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY.
KOWALSKI / 30
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CST THU DEC 18 2025
SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL BRING DECENT MOISTURE TO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT, THOUGH LITTLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. VISIBILITIES WILL
BE DECREASING SIGNIFICANTLY TOWARD THROUGH THE REMAINING NOCTURNAL
HOURS. DENSE FOG WILL DEVELOP THROUGH INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS.
AREAS OF SEA FOG LIFTING INLAND MAY COMBINE WITH IFR / LIFR
CEILINGS. VIS / CEILINGS IMPROVE MID MORNING HOURS BUT LIKELY
REMAINING MVFR INTO THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS GAIN STRONGER SW
COMPONENTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CST THU DEC 18 2025
DENSE FOG WILL SLOWLY ERODE THROUGH THE MID MORNINGS HOURS ALONG THE
LAKES, BAYS, AND NEARSHORE WATERS. LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHWEST TO WEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, THEN TURN
QUICKLY OFFSHORE AND STRENGTHEN INTO EARLY FRI MORNING WHEN A BRIEF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. A RETURN TO ONSHORE FLOW OCCURS
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WARM MOIST AIR MOVING INLAND ONCE AGAIN TO THE
REST OF THE PERIOD.
COOL SHELF WATERS COMBINED WITH WARM MOISTURE RETURN AND MOSTLY CALM
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BRING BACK THE OCCURRENCE OF MARINE FOG BY
THE WEEKEND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CST THU DEC 18 2025
HUMID AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT
A COLD FRONT WILL YIELD A BRIEF SHOT OF COOLER/DRIER AIR FOR FRIDAY.
MINRH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. HOWEVER,
WINDS TURN SOUTH AGAIN BY LATE FRIDAY BRINGING HEAT AND HUMIDITY
RIGHT BACK INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RH VALUES WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE 60% THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD (POST-FRIDAY).
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 73 39 60 40 / 20 0 0 0
LCH 74 44 63 46 / 10 0 0 0
LFT 77 44 63 43 / 30 0 0 0
BPT 76 44 64 47 / 10 0 0 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LAZ027>033-
044-045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-
259>262-515-516-615-616.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ430-432-
435-436-450-452-455.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...30
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