493
FXUS64 KLCH 182309
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
509 PM CST THU DEC 18 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND BRING
COOLER, MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY.
- WARMTH AND HUMIDITY QUICKLY RETURN SATURDAY AND BEYOND AS
ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
- STRONG UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE CONUS LATE IN THE PERIOD,
REINFORCING THE UNSEASONABLE WARMTH AS WE APPROACH CHRISTMAS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 501 PM CST THU DEC 18 2025
MID-MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
DFW AREA, WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE NW GULF. WARM GULF AIR
HAS FILTERED INTO THE REGION OVER THE LAST 18-24 HOURS, WITH
DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE MID 60S. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. SOME VERY ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY
ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT PASSAGE, BUT THE FRONT WILL OTHERWISE BE RATHER
UNEVENTFUL. AS WINDS SHIFT NORTH TONIGHT, A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS
WILL FILTER INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK,
WITH MORNING LOWS EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
TOMORROW. POST-FRONTAL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE
OVERHEAD FOR A BRIEF PERIOD TOMORROW, ALLOWING HIGHS TO WARM INTO
THE LOWER 60S AMID SUNNY SKIES.
TOMORROW NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF TO
THE EAST ALLOWING WINDS TO RETURN TO AN ONSHORE FLOW AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION TO KICK IN ONCE AGAIN. BY 18Z SATURDAY DEWPOINTS ARE
FORECASTED TO BE BACK IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S, WHICH WILL ALLOW
AFTERNOON TEMPS TO TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 PM CST THU DEC 18 2025
THE LONG TERM BRINGS AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABNORMALLY WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH CHRISTMAS AND BEYOND. PWATS ARE
FORECASTED TO SURGE TO NEAR AND ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL
BRING OUR LAST GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN FOR A WHILE, WITH NBM PAINTING 30-
50 POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY. IN ADDITION, ANOTHER
VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY IS ON TAP WITH HIGHS REACHING IN THE THE LOW
TO MID 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S
(BOTH AROUND 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS).
MOVING INTO THE WORK WEEK, A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD OVER THE CONUS AND STRENGTHENS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. RIDGING
ALOFT WILL KEEP CONVECTION, AND ANY POTENTIAL FRONTS, AT BAY WHILE
ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP A STEADY INFLUX OF WARM, MOIST
AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT SEVERAL MORE ABNORMALLY
WARM AND HUMID DAYS WITH HIGHS STEADILY REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID
70S EACH DAY AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S EACH NIGHT.
UNFORTUNATELY IT'S LOOKING LIKE A WARM CHRISTMAS FOR THE GULF COAST
THIS YEAR, WITH UPPER RIDGING NOT EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN UNTIL
BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 501 PM CST THU DEC 18 2025
PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WHILE A FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
AND VFR SKIES WILL PRIVILY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 501 PM CST THU DEC 18 2025
LIGHT TO MODERATE SW WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT WEST THIS EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES, FOLLOWED BY A NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW
TONIGHT POST-FRONTAL PASSAGE. AS WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY TONIGHT
THEY WILL ALSO BEGIN TO RAMP UP, AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW. TOMORROW
AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW NIGHT, LIGHT TO MODERATE NE FLOW BECOMES E
AND EVENTUALLY SE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST.
A STEADY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK. COOL SHELF WATERS COMBINED WITH WARM MOISTURE
RETURN AND MOSTLY CALM CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BRING BACK THE
OCCURRENCE OF MARINE FOG BY THE WEEKEND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 501 PM CST THU DEC 18 2025
TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF SHOT OF COOLER/DRIER AIR
FOR FRIDAY. MINRH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID
30S. HOWEVER, WINDS TURN SOUTH AGAIN BY LATE FRIDAY BRINGING HEAT
AND HUMIDITY RIGHT BACK INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. RH VALUES WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE 60%
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD (POST-FRIDAY).
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 38 60 38 74 / 0 0 0 0
LCH 43 62 45 73 / 10 0 0 0
LFT 43 62 43 73 / 10 0 0 0
BPT 42 62 47 75 / 0 0 0 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST FRIDAY
FOR GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...05
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page