097
FXUS64 KLCH 191131
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
531 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY WITH CLEAR SKIES
- WARMTH AND HUMIDITY QUICKLY RETURN SATURDAY AND BEYOND AS
ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
- STRONG UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE CONUS LATE IN THE PERIOD,
REINFORCING THE UNSEASONABLE WARMTH AS WE APPROACH CHRISTMAS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 522 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
A DEPARTING COLD FRONT IS STRETCHED FROM DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TO SE LA
TO THE APPALACHIANS. AN INCOMING RIDGE HAS ALREADY DROPPED INTO
NORTH TEXAS.
CAA WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY TODAY AS THE FRONT DEPARTS AND THE
RIDGE BUILDS IN. WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTY AT TIMES, BUT WILL DECREASE
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING INCLUDING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. UNDER
SUNNY SKIES, TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 15
DEGREES LOWER THAN THURSDAY'S.
THE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE RIDGE
QUICKLY SLIPS EAST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE RETURN FLOW
WILL BEGIN BY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A NEAR 10 DEGREE WARM UP INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
BY SUNDAY RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION, HOWEVER AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO
LIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. FOG WILL ALSO BE CONCERN SUNDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 522 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
THE EXTENDED, INCLUDING CHRISTMAS, LOOKS WARM WITH TEMPERATURES
AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO NORMS. OUTSIDE OF A FEW SHOWERS
MONDAY THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM LOOKS DRY AS A RIDGE ALOFT
MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 522 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
UPPER LEVEL JET SITUATED OVER THE WESTERN US IS EJECTING UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. THESE CLOUDS MAY SPREAD
OVERTOP WESTERN TERMINALS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON TO OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. OTHERWISE, LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER NOT ANTICIPATED IN THE
PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE SWIFTLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THIS MORNING. AT THE
SAME TIME, LEE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE ROCKIES WILL BEGIN SPINNING UP
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE CENTER. A COMBINATION OF THIS FEATURE AND
HIGH DEPARTING TO THE EAST WILL TURN WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST BY
AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THEREAFTER.
INCREASING FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ALSO HELP TO GENERATE ANOTHER THIN
CLOUD LAYER IN THE MID LEVELS FROM LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY AM
SATURDAY. LOW FORECASTER CONFIDENCE (DUE TO DRY AIR STILL PRESENT
ALOFT) LIMITED THE INCLUSION OF ANY CLOUD LAYER LOWER THAN 250.
11/CALHOUN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 60 38 74 58 / 0 0 0 30
LCH 62 45 74 62 / 0 0 0 10
LFT 62 43 74 60 / 0 0 0 10
BPT 63 48 76 62 / 0 0 0 10
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ450-452-
455-470-472-475.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...11
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