272
FXUS64 KLCH 192342
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
542 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMTH AND HUMIDITY QUICKLY RETURN SATURDAY AND BEYOND AS
ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
- STRONG UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE CONUS LATE IN THE PERIOD,
REINFORCING THE UNSEASONABLE WARMTH AS WE APPROACH CHRISTMAS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 535 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
FRIDAY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD BEHIND YESTERDAY'S COLD FRONT, DOMINATING THE SOUTHERN
CONUS. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTH WINDS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA, WHILE TEMPS ARE IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. A PLEASANT
END TO THE WEEK IS ON TAP TODAY, WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO WARM INTO
THE LOW TO MID 60S THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW,
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST, BECOMING SITUATED NEAR
THE CAROLINAS. AS A RESULT, SURFACE WINDS WILL RETURN TO AN ONSHORE
FLOW AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL KICK IN ONCE AGAIN AS WE HEAD INTO
THE WEEKEND. BY 18Z TOMORROW DEWPOINTS ARE FORECASTED TO BE BACK IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S, WHICH WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPS TO TOP
OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
MOISTURE RETURN THEN KICKS UP A NOTCH TOMORROW NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. PWATS ARE FORECASTED TO
REACH THE 75TH PERCENTILE BY 12Z SUN AND APPROACH OR EXCEED THE 90TH
PERCENTILE BY 00Z. THE COMBINATION OF SURGING MOISTURE AND A NEARBY
WARM/STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN OUR LAST DECENT CHANCE OF
RAIN FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. WHILE RAIN IS LIKELY THROUGHOUT SUN,
I DID OPT TO TAMPER NBM RAIN CHANCES DOWN SLIGHTLY, AS FORCING LOOKS
RATHER MINIMAL AND WE ARE ONLY FORECASTED TO SEE AROUND 0.10" OF
RAIN AT BEST. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS A GLOOMY/MUGGY DAY WITH
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY TO END THE WEEKEND,
ALONG WITH TEMPS REACHING INTO THE MID 70S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 535 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
MOVING INTO THE WORK WEEK, A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE CONUS ON MONDAY AND STEADILY STRENGTHENS THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK. RIDGING ALOFT WILL KEEP CONVECTION, AND ANY POTENTIAL FRONTS,
AT BAY WHILE ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP A STEADY INFLUX
OF WARM, MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT SEVERAL
MORE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID DAYS WITH HIGHS STEADILY REACHING
INTO THE MID 70S EACH DAY FOLLOWED BY LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S EACH
NIGHT. UNFORTUNATELY IT'S LOOKING LIKE A WARM CHRISTMAS FOR THE GULF
COAST THIS YEAR, WITH UPPER RIDGING NOT EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN UNTIL
BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 535 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD AMID A COOL
AND DRY AIRMASS, WITH THE CHANCE FOR LOW CIGS AND VSBY
RESTRICTIONS INCREASING SAT EVENING INTO SUN MORNING WITHIN A
RETURN FLOW REGIME AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE/BECOME A BIT GUSTY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON BEFORE EASING NEAR/AFTER SUNSET.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 535 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
NE WINDS GRADUALLY TURN E TO SE THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST. MAINLY
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW SEAS WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK AS THE PATTERN REMAINS STAGNANT. SMALL RAIN
CHANCES CAN BE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY, WITH OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 535 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
TODAY BRINGS OUR LAST PERIOD OF DRY/COOL AIR BEFORE A QUICK
WARMING/MOISTENING TREND BEGINS TOMORROW AND PERSISTS THROUGHOUT
THE HOLIDAY WEEK. TOMORROW THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD MINRH
VALUES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S TO LOW 70S, AMID
CONTINUOUS LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLY
FROM EARLY SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY, WITH OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 38 74 59 72 / 0 0 20 40
LCH 46 74 62 76 / 0 0 10 40
LFT 43 74 61 76 / 0 0 10 40
BPT 48 75 62 77 / 0 0 10 20
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...13
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