470
FXUS64 KLCH 200608
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1208 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMTH AND HUMIDITY QUICKLY RETURN SATURDAY AND BEYOND AS
ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
- STRONG UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE CONUS LATE IN THE PERIOD,
REINFORCING THE UNSEASONABLE WARMTH AS WE APPROACH CHRISTMAS.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE
AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION AND AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT GRADUALLY SINK SOUTH
THROUGH THE PLAINS. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES, SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
RETURN TO THE AREA TODAY, WITH SOUTH WINDS BECOMING A LITTLE GUSTY
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE EASING THIS EVENING. THESE SOUTH WINDS WILL
USHER IN A RAPID RETURN OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS, WITH THE PROBABILITY OF
NEARSHORE MARINE FOG DEVELOPMENT INCREASING BY LATE SAT AFTERNOON,
WITH FOG DEVELOPING AND/OR SPREADING INLAND AFTER SUNSET. HAVE
INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG TO THE BOTH MARINE AND LAND ZONES GENERALLY IN
LINE WITH HREF/REFS PROBABILITIES, AND IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE MORE
ROBUST WORDING WILL BE NEEDED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.
OTHERWISE, THE MAIN STORY TODAY AND REALLY FOR THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE UNSEASONABLE WARMTH, WITH BOTH DAYTIME
HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS RUNNING 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS.
WITH ITS PARENT SHORTWAVE TROF SWINGING EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
AND NEW ENGLAND, SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT WILL SLOW
CONSIDERABLY SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS IT FINDS ITSELF EMBEDDED WITHIN
INCREASINGLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH POOLED MSTR AND
LIFT TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SUN
AFTERNOON, WITH THE BOUNDARY STALLING NEAR THE COAST BY SUN EVENING.
SMALL TO MID RANGE RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO MON AS THE BOUNDARY
GRADUALLY WASHES OUT. THE RISK OF MARINE/INLAND FOG WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY, WITH ADDITIONAL
INLAND FOG POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT. WHILE DEWPOINTS WILL MODERATE A
BIT AFTER THE FRONT WASHES OUT, WITH THE OVERALL LOW LEVEL
PATTERN EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE WEEK, IT IS NOT
UNREASONABLE TO THINK THAT MARINE/INLAND FOG COULD BECOME
REPETITIVE AND/OR PERSISTENT.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
MOVING INTO THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK, A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE GULF COAST STATES, REACHING PEAK
STRENGTH ON WED BEFORE FLATTENING OUT BY FRI. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP
RAIN CHANCES AT BAY WHILE ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL
MAINTAIN A STEADY INFLUX OF WARM, MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS
WILL BRING ABOUT SEVERAL MORE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID DAYS
WITH HIGHS STEADILY REACHING INTO THE MID 70S EACH DAY FOLLOWED BY
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S EACH NIGHT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON, WITH THE CHANCE
FOR LOW CIGS AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS INCREASING SAT EVENING INTO SUN
MORNING WITHIN A RETURN FLOW REGIME AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE/BECOME
A BIT GUSTY TOMORROW AFTERNOON BEFORE EASING NEAR/AFTER SUNSET.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE GULF WATERS SAT AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE PROBABILITY OF MARINE
FOG WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SAT AFTERNOON AS A MOIST AIRMASS RIDES
ATOP COOL SHELF WATERS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND A HUMID AIRMASS WILL PUSH INTO
THE AREA SATURDAY, WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THE REST OF THE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 60 38 75 60 / 0 0 0 20
LCH 62 46 74 63 / 0 0 0 10
LFT 62 43 74 63 / 0 0 0 0
BPT 63 48 77 63 / 0 0 0 10
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...13
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