851
FXUS64 KLCH 202346
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
546 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED
- STRONG UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE CONUS THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK, REINFORCING THE UNSEASONABLE WARMTH AS WE
APPROACH CHRISTMAS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 541 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2025
MOISTURE HAS RETURNED IN EARNEST OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS IN THE
WAKE OF A WEAK WARM FRONT, WITH DEWPOINTS AT MOST OF OUR OBS
SITES HAVING RISEN FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S AT 12Z TO THE LOW TO
MID 60S AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING. AS EXPECTED, A WARM AND HUMID
AFTERNOON IS ON TAP TO START THE WEEKEND, WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE MID-70S THIS AFTERNOON AMID MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW. TONIGHT, LOW TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY 20 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS, ONLY
FALLING INTO THE LOWER 60S THANKS TO A CONTINUOUS FETCH OF WARM,
MOIST AIR OFF THE GULF. IN ADDITION, DENSE FOG IS LIKELY TO BECOME
AN ISSUE TONIGHT/TOMORROW MORNING, AND WHILE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
IS CURRENTLY NOT IN PLACE ONE WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED THIS EVENING.
TOMORROW, MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POOL OVERHEAD, AS A WEAK SURFACE
LOW AND 'COOL' FRONT SAG INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE
DAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE SOME WEAK SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION
AS IT ENTERS THE WARM, MOIST AIRMASS OVERHEAD, LEADING TO A
RATHER GLOOMY AND DRIZZLY SUNDAY. OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
ONLY EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 0.10", SO THIS WON'T BE A SIGNIFICANT
RAIN EVENT BY ANY MEANS. WARM, MUGGY, AND DRIZZLY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TOMORROW NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE COOL FRONT BECOMES HUNG
UP ACROSS CENLA/INTERIOR SE TX AND CONTINUES TO PROVIDE WEAK
SUPPORT FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY. LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN
TO TAPER OFF THROUGH THE LATER HALF OF MONDAY AS THE BOUNDARY
LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEAKENS AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS
TO BUILD OVERHEAD.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 541 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2025
A SIGNIFICANT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE EAST/CENTRAL
CONUS THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD, KEEPING CONVECTION, AND
ANY POTENTIAL FRONTS, AT BAY WHILE ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE
WILL KEEP A STEADY INFLUX OF WARM, MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS
WILL BRING ABOUT SEVERAL MORE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID DAYS AND
NIGHTS THROUGHOUT THE LONG TEMP PERIOD. HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S EACH DAY FOLLOWED BY LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S EACH NIGHT. IN ADDITION, LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
FOG WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE WITHIN THIS STAGNANT
PATTERN.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 541 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2025
MVFR PREVAILING AT MOST TERMINALS EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH CIGS
AND VSBYS EXPECTED TO LOWER THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
AREAS OF FOG/MARINE FOG DEVELOP/SPREAD INLAND. BOTH WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE THE FIRST HALF OF TOMORROW, WITH AT LEAST SOME
OPPORTUNITY FOR VFR BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE CIGS FILL IN
AND LOWER AGAIN TOMORROW EVENING.
13
MARINE
ISSUED AT 541 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2025
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE PATTERN
BECOMES STAGNANT BENEATH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. MARINE FOG IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME AN ISSUES TONIGHT AS A MOIST AIRMASS RIDES ATOP
COOL SHELF WATERS, WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN AFFECT FOR THE
COASTAL ZONES + COASTAL LAKES/BAYS. FOG WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE
AN ISSUE EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
AS NO PATTERN CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 541 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2025
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND A HUMID AIRMASS HAVE MADE THERE
WAY INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING, WITH A WARM AND HUMID PATTERN
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW AND
MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 61 72 57 75 / 30 50 30 50
LCH 64 77 64 74 / 10 50 30 50
LFT 63 78 62 75 / 10 50 30 30
BPT 64 78 62 75 / 0 30 20 30
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR GMZ430-432-450-452.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST SUNDAY
FOR GMZ435-436-455.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...13
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