219
FXUS64 KLCH 211740
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1140 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED
- STRONG UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE CONUS THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK, REINFORCING THE UNSEASONABLE WARMTH AS WE
APPROACH CHRISTMAS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
SUNDAY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE IN NE TEXAS, WITH
A COOL FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW ACROSS CENLA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
SLOWLY SAG SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON,
BRIEFLY TURNING WINDS TO THE NE ACROSS THOSE REGION. OTHERWISE, THE
PRESENCE OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE RATHER UNNOTICEABLE, AS ANOTHER
WARM AND MUGGY DAY IS ON TAP TO END THE WEEKEND. CLOUDY SKIES AND
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POOL
OVERHEAD. HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S THIS AFTERNOON,
WHILE LOWS FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. IN ADDITION, ANOTHER
ROUND OF DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE AREAS
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-10. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
THOSE REGIONS, AS WELL AS THE COASTAL WATERS. AREAS FURTHER NORTH
WILL LIKELY SEE SOME FOG BUT PROBS FOR DENSE FOR ARE A BIT LOWER
DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE COOL FRONT THAT WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT.
TOMORROW, LOW PRESSURE AND THE ASSOCIATED FRONT CONTINUE TO LINGER
ACROSS CENLA FOR A BIT LONGER, KEEPING ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IN
THE AREA. THE BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE LATER
HALF OF THE DAY, EVENTUALLY BECOMING WASHED OUT BY TOMORROW NIGHT AS
A SIGNIFICANT UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD OVERHEAD. ONCE ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS DIE OFF TOMORROW, DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR
THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE DUE TO THE BUILDING RIDGE. IN ADDITION,
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RUN WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS, WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S BOTH
TOMORROW AND TUES.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
BY THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
WELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE CONUS, WHERE IT WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL MORE WARM
AND HUMID BUT DRY DAYS THROUGH CHRISTMAS AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WED
THROUGH SAT HIGHS WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND LOWS FALL INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. SEVERAL MORE ROUNDS OF FOG ARE LIKELY
THROUGH THIS PERIOD, DUE TO THE COOLER SHELF WATERS OFFSHORE AND THE
WARM, MOIST AIRMASS OVERHEAD. NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED UNTIL POSSIBLY
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND, AND EVEN THAT IS STILL UP FOR
DEBATE. MODELS ARE DIVERGING QUITE A BIT AROUND SAT/SUN REGARDING A
POSSIBLY FRONT AND INCREASED RAIN CHANCES. THE GFS REMAINS ON THE
DRY SIDE FOR NOW, KEEPING THE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE UNTIL AROUND THE
NEW YEAR, WHILE THE EURO WANTS TO BREAK THE RIDGE DOWN A BIT EARLIER
AND BRING SOME RAIN CHANCES TO THE FORECAST BY LATE SAT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUD DECK OVERHEAD WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
LIFT FROM IFR/LIFR TO MVFR (WITH POCKETS OF VFR) THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE, ISOLATED SHOWERS AND LIGHT MAIN SOUTH
WINDS ARE EXPECTED NOW THROUGH SUNSET. TONIGHT, ANOTHER ROUND OF
FOG AND LOW CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP POST-SUNSET, BECOMING DENSE/LIFR
AROUND MIDNIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. FOG WILL BE MOST DENSE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10 FOR SEVERAL HOURS, WHILE AT AEX DENSE FOG
MAY NOT SET IN UNTIL WE NEAR SUNRISE TOMORROW. LIKE TODAY, FOG
WILL BE VERY SLOW TO BURN OFF TOMORROW MORNING THANKS TO A
PERSISTENT OVERCAST DECK THAT WILL ALSO BE SLOW TO LIFT FROM LIFR
TO IFR/MVFR BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW SEAS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
REMAINS STAGNANT. MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE
DENSE FOG, PARTICULARLY NEAR THE COAST AND THROUGH THE COASTAL
LAKES/BAYS, THAT WILL MAKE NEAR SHORE MARINE TRAVEL NEARLY
IMPOSSIBLE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN
AFFECT FOR THE NEARSHORE ZONES AND THE COASTAL LAKES/BAYS THROUGH
10AM TOMORROW, BUT WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO TOMORROW
AFTERNOON/NIGHT ONCE AGAIN.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
A FETCH OF WARM, MOIST GULF AIR INTO THE REGION WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS WE REMAIN WITHIN A REPETITIVE
PATTERN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. WARM DAYS AND MUGGY NIGHTS WITH
OVERNIGHT/MORNING FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY,
WITH NO BREAK IN THE PATTERN EXPECTED UNTIL MAYBE NEXT WEEKEND OR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 56 75 58 75 / 10 20 0 0
LCH 62 76 60 75 / 10 20 0 0
LFT 63 76 57 77 / 30 20 0 0
BPT 62 75 61 76 / 10 10 0 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST MONDAY
FOR LAZ044-045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST MONDAY
FOR TXZ515-516-615-616.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ430-432-435-436-
450-452-455.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...17
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