723
FXUS64 KLCH 220603
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1203 AM CST MON DEC 22 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ON A DAILY BASIS THROUGH CHRISTMAS
WEEK.
- FOG LEADING TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES ON A DAILY BASIS ESPECIALLY
OVER THE MARINE ZONES AND COASTAL LAKES AND BAYS.
- UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH,
REINFORCING UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER INTO THE NEW YEAR.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
IT WAS A WARM AND FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TOMUGGY NIGHT OVER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND MUCH OF SOUTH LOUISIANA. A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN THE UPPER LEVELS HAS ALLOWED GULF AIR TO TRANSPORT
NORTHWARD THROUGH ABOUT HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. A STALLED OUT
FRONTAL SYSTEM DIVIDED GULF AIR FROM A COOLER CONTINENTAL AIRMASS
ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
DENSE FOG DEVELOPED EARLY ALONG THE COAST, AND HAS SPREAD
NORTHWARD INT THE I-10 CORRIDOR. IT WILL BE A DANGEROUS NIGHT
NAVIGATING MARINE AREAS AND ROADWAYS, ESPECIALLY I-10 AND TO THE
SOUTH. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR A FEW PARISHES AND
TEXAS COUNTIES THROUGH 10AM.
HEADING INTO MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, NOT MUCH WILL CHANGE AS THE
UPPER RIDGE INTENSIFIES, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE. OTHER THAN A COUPLE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AT TIMES,
CHANCES FAVOR MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. LOOK FOR HIGHS TO WARM INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 70S, WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. A FEW LOCATIONS WILL
FLIRT WITH RECORD HIGH TEMPS.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
THERE IS OVERWHELMING CONSENSUS IN THE LONG RANGE MODELS FOR
PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE NATIONS MID SECTION. WARM AND
MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH CHRISTMAS AND BEYOND.
POSSIBLY EVEN INTO THE NEW YEAR. AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE GOOD
SUNSHINE MAY WARM IN THE 80S. MOST LOCATIONS WILL WARM INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 70S THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, FLIRTING WITH
RECORD HIGHS.
FOG COULD BE A LONGER TERM ISSUE, ESPECIALLY FOR COASTAL AREAS
AND THE MARINE ZONES UNTIL WE EXPERIENCE A PATTERN CHANGE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
PILOTS FLYING IN AND OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA
AIRPORTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE RISK FOR DENSE FOG. DENSE FOG
WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND NORTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. A FEW
AIRPORTS SUCH AS LAKE CHARLES AND BEAUMONT HAVE ALREADY OBSERVED
VISIBILITIES LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF A MILE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EVENING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF
CYCLE, WHILE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER WILL OFFER IFR AND LIFR
CEILINGS AT TIMES.
SAFE TRAVELS
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
DENSE FOG WILL REMAIN A MAJOR CONCERN FOR MARINERS NAVIGATING THE
MARINE ZONES AND COASTAL INLETS. FOG COULD PERSIST WELL INTO THE
DAY ON MONDAY, ONLY TO BECOME MORE DENSE WITH NIGHTFALL ON MONDAY.
GIVEN THE LACK OF A PATTERN CHANGE, MARINE FOG COULD BE A LONGER
TERM ISSUE FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA THROUGHOUT CHRISTMAS
WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
IMPROVED KBDI VALUES HAS REDUCED THE RISK FOR A RAPID SPREAD IN
WILDLAND FIRES. HUMID CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WILL ALSO REDUCE ANY RISK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 70 56 76 57 / 40 10 20 0
LCH 77 62 76 60 / 50 10 20 0
LFT 77 63 76 57 / 50 30 20 0
BPT 78 62 76 61 / 30 10 10 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR LAZ044-045-055-073-
074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR TXZ515-516-615-616.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ430-432-435-436-
450-452-455.
SHORT TERM...CRAMER
LONG TERM....CRAMER
AVIATION...CRAMER
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