831
FXUS64 KLCH 221152
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
552 AM CST MON DEC 22 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ON A DAILY BASIS THROUGH CHRISTMAS
WEEK.
- FOG LEADING TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES ON A DAILY BASIS ESPECIALLY
OVER THE MARINE ZONES AND COASTAL LAKES AND BAYS.
- UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH,
REINFORCING UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER INTO THE NEW YEAR.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 526 AM CST MON DEC 22 2025
IT WAS A WARM AND FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO MUGGY NIGHT OVER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND MUCH OF SOUTH LOUISIANA. A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN THE UPPER LEVELS HAS ALLOWED GULF AIR TO TRANSPORT
NORTHWARD THROUGH ABOUT HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. A STALLED OUT
FRONTAL SYSTEM DIVIDED GULF AIR FROM A COOLER CONTINENTAL AIRMASS
ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
DENSE FOG DEVELOPED EARLY ALONG THE COAST, AND HAS SPREAD
NORTHWARD INT THE I-10 CORRIDOR. IT WILL BE A DANGEROUS NIGHT
NAVIGATING MARINE AREAS AND ROADWAYS, ESPECIALLY I-10 AND TO THE
SOUTH. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR A FEW PARISHES AND
TEXAS COUNTIES THROUGH 10AM.
HEADING INTO MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, NOT MUCH WILL CHANGE AS THE
UPPER RIDGE INTENSIFIES, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE. OTHER THAN A COUPLE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AT TIMES,
CHANCES FAVOR MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. LOOK FOR HIGHS TO WARM INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 70S, WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. A FEW LOCATIONS WILL
FLIRT WITH RECORD HIGH TEMPS.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 526 AM CST MON DEC 22 2025
THERE IS OVERWHELMING CONSENSUS IN THE LONG RANGE MODELS FOR
PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE NATIONS MID SECTION. WARM AND
MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH CHRISTMAS AND BEYOND.
POSSIBLY EVEN INTO THE NEW YEAR. AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE GOOD
SUNSHINE MAY WARM IN THE 80S. MOST LOCATIONS WILL WARM INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 70S THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, FLIRTING WITH
RECORD HIGHS.
FOG COULD BE A LONGER TERM ISSUE, ESPECIALLY FOR COASTAL AREAS
AND THE MARINE ZONES UNTIL WE EXPERIENCE A PATTERN CHANGE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 526 AM CST MON DEC 22 2025
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF THIS
MORNING. IT'S NOT THE EASIEST TO PICK OUT VIA SATELLITE. THE
STORY IS BEING TOLD BY AREA OBS: OBS NORTH OF I-10 REPORT VIS 4 TO
P6 AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WHILE THOSE SITES SOUTH OF I-10 ARE
GENERALLY SOCKED IN WITH FOG AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S.
THERE HAS BEEN SOME IMPROVEMENT IN VIS FOR BPT AND LCH, PERHAPS
THE BOUNDARY HAS MEANDERED SO FAR SOUTHWEST. THE SAME WAS
MENTIONED BY SHIP CHANNEL PILOTS, HOWEVER THEY THEN FOLLOWED UP
WITH A RENEWED CRASHING OF VIS. THUS, WITH THE IDEA THAT DENSE FOG
MAY ADVECT BACK NORTH, LIFR VIS WAS PREVAILED UNTIL 15Z. VIS WILL
IMPROVE AT ALL SITES ONCE AGAIN WITH SUNRISE. AS SEEN ON SUNDAY,
DENSE FOG SHOULD BE SHUNTED BACK INTO COASTAL WATERS DURING
DAYTIME HOURS.
LOW DRIVING YESTERDAY AND TODAY'S DENSE FOG EVENT IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE TODAY, LEAVING BEHIND THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO
CONTINUE PREVAILING LOW CIGS AND VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS DURING
DAYTIME HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL START RIDGING INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF FROM THE EAST IN THE LATTER HALF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WINDS IN LOWER ACADIANA WILL REFLECT THIS WITH CALM CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT, WHILE BPT CARRIES SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 6 KNOTS THRU
12Z.
AFTER 00Z TONIGHT, MARINE DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND ONCE
AGAIN INTO INLAND AREAS. VIS SHOULD HOLD IN THE 3 TO 5SM RANGE
UNTIL AFTER 06Z WHEN VISIBILITIES DROP QUICKLY DUE TO FOG. BPT AND
LCH MAY SEE DROPPING VISBILITIES SOONER THAN 06Z AS THE MARINE FOG
CAN ADVECT NORTHWARD MORE EFFICIENTLY ON THE BREEZY SOUTHEAST
FLOW OVERNIGHT.
11
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 76 57 76 55 / 20 0 0 0
LCH 76 60 76 58 / 20 0 0 0
LFT 76 57 77 57 / 20 0 0 0
BPT 76 61 76 59 / 10 0 0 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LAZ044-045-
055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ515-516-
615-616.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ430-432-
435-436-450-452-455.
SHORT TERM...CRAMER
LONG TERM....CRAMER
AVIATION...11
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