095
FXUS64 KLCH 230601
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1201 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF
CHRISTMAS WEEK.
- FOG LEADING TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES EXPECTED EACH NIGHT INTO THE
MORNING HOURS ESPECIALLY OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AND COASTAL
LAKES AND BAYS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
- A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY TO BRING COOLER WEATHER TO
BEGIN NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST MON DEC 22 2025
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERM THROUGH
CHRISTMAS AS IT LOOKS LIKE SANTA MAY NEED A CHANGE OF CLOTHES INTO
SHORT SLEEVES AND SHORTS AS HE DROPS OFF HIS PRESENTS AROUND HERE,
ALONG WITH NEEDING RUDOLPH'S SHINNY NOSE TO SEE THROUGH THE LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN AROUND THE SOUTHEAST US AND OFF TO
THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA PROVIDING LOW LEVEL SOUTH FLOW OFF THE
GULF. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND
NORTHERN OLD MEXICO WILL RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA PROVIDING DRY
AIR ALOFT AND A CAP IN THE ATMOSPHERE.
THIS WILL MEAN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH LITTLE TO
NO CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES,
ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST, MAY NEAR RECORD DAILY HIGHS.
THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE VERY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AT NIGHT WITH NEAR
SHORE WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND THE DEW POINT AIR
MOVING OVER IT VERY NEAR THESE WATER TEMPERATURES. SUBTLE CHANGES
EACH NIGHT WILL MEAN THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG OR
PATCHY DENSE FOG AND WIDESPREAD LOW CEILINGS.
IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM, WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEAR SHORE WATERS, AS WELL AS THE COASTAL LAKES AND BAYS, AND UP
TOWARD THE I-10 CORRIDOR OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
WHERE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM TUESDAY.
07/RUA
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST MON DEC 22 2025
A WARM START TO THE LONG TERM AND TO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER, OVER THE WEEKEND, AND UPPER LEVEL POLAR LOW SITUATED OVER
THE NORTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND TO
NEW ENGLAND DIGGING A TROUGH FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED
STATES. THIS WILL PLACE THE FORECAST AREA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
THAT WILL BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS LATE SUNDAY.
LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH MOISTURE BUILD UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND FORCING
WITH THE FRONT THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA AS IT MOVES THROUGH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR SOME CHILLY CANADIAN AIR TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
07/RUA
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST MON DEC 22 2025
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PUSH WARM AIR OVER COOLER NEAR SHORE
WATERS PRODUCING LOW STRATUS AND FOG THAT WILL CONTINUE TO FORM AND
MOVE INTO THE KBPT/KLCH WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT. REMAINING TERMINALS WILL SEE LOW STRATUS MOVING IN
AFTER 23/06Z WITH MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLY DOWN TO LIFR AROUND
SUNRISE. VFR CONDITIONS BY 23/18Z AS WINDS INCREASE AND DAYTIME
HEATING OCCURS.
07/RUA
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST MON DEC 22 2025
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. MAINLY LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS, AND WITH THAT, LOW SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK. NO SIGNIFICANT SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER, AREAS OF SEA FOG, DENSE AT TIMES,
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO FORM EACH NIGHT AND LAST UNTIL THE LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST MON DEC 22 2025
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH CHRISTMAS BRINGING IN LOW
LEVEL GULF MOISTURE. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
BE IN THE 60 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL
HELP KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OUT OF THE FORECAST. THERE WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG DURING THE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 59 77 56 76 / 0 0 0 0
LCH 61 76 59 76 / 0 0 0 0
LFT 59 77 58 78 / 0 0 0 0
BPT 62 76 61 76 / 0 0 0 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LAZ073-074-141-
142-152-241>243-252>254.
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR TXZ515-516-615-
616.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ430-432-435-
436-450-452-455.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...07
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