858
FXUS64 KLCH 240221
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
821 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING DUE TO DENSE FOG. FOG LEADING TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES IS
EXPECTED EACH NIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NEAR SHORE WATERS AND COASTAL LAKES AND BAYS, FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.
- NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF
CHRISTMAS WEEK.
- A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY TO BRING COOLER WEATHER TO
BEGIN NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 821 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS ALONG WITH THE VERY STRONG SIGNAL
FOR FOG IN BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE, HAVE
GONE AHEAD AND EXPANDED THE INLAND DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO COVER THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AND EXTENDED THE VALID TIME THROUGH 10 AM
TOMORROW MORNING. NPW ALREADY SENT, REMAINING UPDATED PUBLIC
PRODUCTS TO FOLLOW.
13
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 816 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF WATERS WILL FACILITATE ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL HAS RESULTED IN A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THE
COASTAL COUNTIES AND PARISHES TONIGHT WHILE ALSO EXTENDING
OFFSHORE AND INTO LAKES / BAYS. FURTHER NORTH OF I-10, SOME
LOCATIONS MAY BE SLOWER TO FILL IN, HOWEVER, CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT
MAY ADJUST RADIATIONAL COMPONENTS INTO AND THROUGH THE DAWN HOURS
OF WEDNESDAY. NEEDLESS TO SAY, PLAN EXTRA TIME FOR WEDNESDAY
MORNING COMMUTE. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE MEXICO
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TN VALLEY WILL ALLOW SUBSIDENCE
WARMING AND WEAK FLOW ALOFT. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN SETS THE STAGE
FOR A MAINLY DRY, BUT VERY MILD / WARM TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
UNSEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70'S. A FEW SPOTS BREACHING 80°F ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOONS WHICH PUTS SOME CLIMATE SITES NEAR RECORD
TERRITORY.
KOWALSKI / 30
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 816 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
NEAR RECORD WARMTH CONTINUES FRIDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
SHIFT EAST AND SOUTH FROM SOUTH TX TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. PERIODS OF FOG REMAIN POSSIBLE BUT STILL NEED TO BE
EVALUATED ON DAY BY DAY BASIS FOR ACCURACY GIVEN THE VARYING
COMPONENTS OF RADIATIONAL AND ADVECTION FOG. ADDITIONALLY, NATURAL
HEAT ACCUMULATION OVERNIGHT MAY START TO LIMIT FOG FOR INTERIOR
ZONES FROM AN ADVECTION STANDPOINT. WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY SUNDAY, HOWEVER, RIDGING ALOFT BEGINS TO
SUPPRESS OFFSHORE WHILE A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH ATTEMPTS TO
DEEPEN INTO THE MIDWEST. DETERMINISTIC AND BLENDED GUIDANCE DO
HAVE SOME AGREEMENT BOTH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM WILL
PHASE. THAT WOULD LEAD TO A STRONGER COLD CANADIAN AIRMASS TO PUSH
OFFSHORE NEXT MONDAY MORNING WITH SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRIOR TO ON SUNDAY EVENING. OFFSHORE FLOW
THEN TAKES HOLD AND WOULD REMAIN IN TACT THROUGH NEW YEARS EVE
CREATING COOLER AND LIKELY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
KOWALSKI / 30
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 816 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
VFR ALL TERMINALS EARLY THIS EVENING, THOUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO
CHANGE OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS FOG/VERY LOW STRATUS AGAIN
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA. USED A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND LATEST
AVAILABLE HI-RES AND PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE TO ARRIVE AT THE
TEMPORAL WINDOW AT EACH TERMINAL, WITH AN EARLIER ONSET EXPECTED
KBPT AND KLCH THIS EVENING, FOLLOWED BY THE ACADIANA TERMINALS
AND KAEX OVERNIGHT INTO WED MORNING. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE MID TO LATE MORNING, WITH MVFR TO VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
13
MARINE
ISSUED AT 816 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. MAINLY LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS, AND WITH THAT, LOW SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK. NO SIGNIFICANT SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER, AREAS OF SEA FOG, DENSE AT TIMES,
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO FORM EACH NIGHT AND LAST UNTIL THE LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 816 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH CHRISTMAS. MINIMUM
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE 60 TO 70 PERCENT
RANGE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL HELP KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL OUT OF THE FORECAST. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG DURING THE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH
DAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 57 77 56 77 / 0 0 0 0
LCH 60 76 60 75 / 0 0 0 0
LFT 59 77 58 75 / 0 0 0 0
BPT 61 76 60 75 / 0 0 0 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR LAZ027>033-044-
045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ180-201-
259>262-515-516-615-616.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY
FOR GMZ430-432-435-436-450-452-455.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...13
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