993
FXUS64 KLCH 262316
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
516 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- FOG LEADING TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES IS EXPECTED EACH NIGHT INTO
THE MORNING HOURS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND
COASTAL LAKES AND BAYS, INTO SATURDAY.
- NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
- A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING AND WILL
BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH FREEZING TEMPS EXPECTED BOTH TUES AND WED AM
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 510 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
FRIDAY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF, WITH THE FORECAST AREA SITUATED ON THE NW PERIPHERY
OF THE HIGH. ALOFT, RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CONUS FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE GULF COAST. A SIMILAR PATTERN WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY, MAKING FOR A REPETITIVE FORECAST THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM. THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT, SW WINDS WILL YIELD
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARM TEMPS, WITH HIGHS REACHING
INTO THE UPPER 70S. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT,
PARTICULARLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10. WHILE AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE
POSSIBLE FURTHER INLAND, SW SURFACE WINDS SHOULD HELP TO KEEP
WIDESPREAD AREAS OF DENSE FOG AT BAY, THEREFORE AREAS OF NORTH OF
I-10 WERE LEFT OUT OF THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TONIGHT.
MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND THE SAME GENERAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN
CONTINUES, BRINGING MORE ABNORMALLY WARM AND HUMID WEATHER. HIGHS
AGAIN WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY,
WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS ONLY REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S SAT AND
SUN MORNING. AREAS OF FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE BOTH MORNINGS,
AND FURTHER DENSE FOG ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. THERE IS
SOME INDICATION IN THE GUIDANCE THAT DENSE FOG WILL SLOWLY BECOME
LESS WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THEREFORE THESE FUTURE
ADVISORIES MAY ONLY ENCOMPASS THE COASTAL AREAS, LIKE TONIGHT.
LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, A PATTERN CHANGE IS FINALLY ON THE
HORIZON AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
SENDS A STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTH TOWARDS THE GULF COAST. THIS FRONT
IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT, AND WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN CHANCES
PEAK AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY AND TAPER DOWN POST-SUNRISE MONDAY AS
THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA. IN ADDITION, A NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING AND BEGIN TO
STRENGTHEN, BRINGING ABOUT A PERIOD OF STRONG CAA AS WE HEAD INTO
THE LONG TERM.
17
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 510 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
MONDAY BEGINS WITH A FRONT PUSHING OFFSHORE AND THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS, WITH STRONG CAA ONGOING IN ITS WAKE. SOME VERY
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY LINGER THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, BUT
FOR THE MOST PART RAIN SHOULD BE WRAPPING UP BY SUNRISE. A STRONG
OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL BRING A MUCH COLDER
AND DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY
MONDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE 50S THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE DAY WHILE DEWPOINTS SLOWLY PLUMMET INTO THE 20S BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, WHICH WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM REACHING THEIR
COLDEST POTENTIAL. STILL, IT WILL BE A CHILLY NIGHT WITH MOST
AREAS (AWAY FROM THE COAST) EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FREEZING FOR A
FEW HOURS.
WINDS FINALLY BEGIN TO RELAX AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT
SHOULD BRING OUR COLDEST ACTUAL TEMPS OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE MID
TO LATER HALF OF THE WEEK, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY
MODERATE BUT STILL REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. RAIN
CHANCES REMAIN NEAR ZERO UNTIL FRIDAY, WHILE A SMALL SHOT OF
MOISTURE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH MAY RESULT IN SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS. OTHERWISE, LOOKS LIKE A PLEASANT AND DRY WEEK
ON THE HORIZON THAT SHOULD BE MUCH WELCOMED AFTER THE EXTENDED
PERIOD OF UNSEASONABLE WARMTH WE'VE BEEN EXPERIENCING.
17
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 515 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
AVIATION CONCERNS ONCE AGAIN WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
STRATUS AND FOG DURING THE EVENING HOURS INTO THE OVERNIGHT AND
WHEN IT LIFTS ON SATURDAY MORNING.
WIND DIRECTION IS MORE FROM A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AND A LITTLE
STRONGER AND THEREFORE, IT MAY TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO GET TO LIFR
CONDITIONS AND THESE CONDITIONS MAY BE CONFINED JUST TO THE
TERMINALS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR.
EXPECT MVFR/IFR BETWEEN 27/03Z AND 27/06Z, WITH IFR/LIFR AT
KBPT/KLCH/KLFT/KARA AFTER 27/06Z LIFTING AT 27/16Z WITH KAEX AT
IFR BETWEEN 27/08Z AND 27/16Z.
SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR THROUGH 27/19Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS AFTER
27/19Z.
07/RUA
MARINE
ISSUED AT 510 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
A LIGHT S TO SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WE
REMAIN ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. MAIN
CONCERN THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE AREAS OF DENSE FOG THAT WILL
DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND PERSIST INTO THE MORNING
EACH DAY. POTENTIAL FOR FOG DOES LOOK TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY OVER
THE WEEKEND THANKS TO A MORE SWRLY WIND HOWEVER, GIVEN THE SET UP
OF WARM, MOIST AIR MOVING OVER THE COOLER SHELF WATERS ITS LIKELY
DENSE FOG WILL BE A PROBLEM IN AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS. A
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT, FINALLY
ENDING THE THREAT FOR MARINE FOG. A STRONG NORTH WIND WILL DEVELOP
IN ITS WAY WITH A PERIOD OF SCA AND POTENTIAL GALE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SUN NIGHT THROUGH ROUGHLY EARLY TUES. THIS FRONT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS, WITH OTHERWISE DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 510 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND BRINGING IN AN
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MOIST GULF AIR MASS OVER THE AREA. MINIMUM
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE 60 TO 70 PERCENT
RANGE THROUGH SUNDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FOG IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE LATE NIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING HOURS,
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE REGION WILL
KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST UNTIL A COLD FRONT
MOVES IN ON LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL
ARRIVE POST-FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY, ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF
STRONG AND GUSTY OFFSHORE FLOW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 63 80 60 80 / 0 0 0 10
LCH 65 77 63 78 / 0 0 0 20
LFT 64 79 63 79 / 0 0 0 20
BPT 65 78 63 79 / 0 0 0 10
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY
FOR LAZ044-045-055-073-074-152>154-241>243-252>254.
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY
FOR TXZ615-616.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST SATURDAY FOR GMZ430-432-435-
436-450-452-455.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...07
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