817
FXUS64 KLCH 270601
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1201 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- FOG LEADING TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE
COAST AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND COASTAL
LAKES AND BAYS, INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
- NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
- A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING AND WILL
BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH FREEZING TEMPS EXPECTED BOTH TUES AND WED AM
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
THROUGH THE WEEKEND A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
NORTHEAST GULF AND AROUND FLORIDA TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
PROVIDING LOW LEVEL SOUTH FLOW OFF THE GULF. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH OVER THE GULF WILL RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN ON SUNDAY.
THIS WILL MEAN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH LOCATIONS
AWAY FROM COAST SEEING NEAR RECORD DAILY HIGHS. WITH THE BREAKING
DOWN SOME ON SUNDAY A FEW SHOWERS WITH DAYTIME HEATING MAY BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AT NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. THE DIFFERENCE ON HOW MUCH OF THE SEA FOG CAN MOVE INLAND
OR FOR IT TO LIFT INTO A LOW STRATUS DECK IS THE WIND SPEEDS ABOVE
THE SURFACE. LATEST VAD FROM KLCH SHOWS 25KT WINDS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AT 1K FEET. THIS IS LIKELY PRODUCING A MORE MIXY
ENVIRONMENT THAT IS KEEPING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG FROM FORMING OR
MOVING FAR INLAND. THEREFORE, WILL KEEP THE ONGOING DENSE FOG
ADVISORY AS IS, WITH LAND AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF I-10 AND UP INTO
ACADIANA THROUGH 9 AM SATURDAY AND OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS UNTIL
10 AM.
THE SAME SCENARIO IS LOOKING POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING WITH GUIDANCE FAVORING ANY DENSE FOG TO STAY NEAR THE COAST
WITH LOW CLOUDS INLAND.
ENERGY MOVING ACROSS FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MERGE WITH A
POLAR LOW OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
MOVE OFF TO EAST AND TOWARD NEW ENGLAND WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THAT WILL ALLOW FOR MORE OF A NORTHWEST FLOW
AND HELP PUSH A CANADIAN COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
GOOD MOISTURE IS NOTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PWAT INCREASES TO OVER
1.35 INCHES AND OVER THE 90TH PERCENTILE WITH 100H-50H MEAN LAYER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY OVER 60 PERCENT. A BAND OF DECENT LIFT AND FORCING
NOTED RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SO SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL FORM WITH
THE FRONT. INSTABILITY OVERALL LOOKS WEAK, SO MAINLY JUST SHOWERS
WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDER. OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
LOOK TO BE LESS THAN 1/4 OF AN INCH.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH A STRONG HIGH MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON
MONDAY WILL ALLOW FOR QUITE BREEZY CONDITIONS. NORTHWEST WINDS LOOK
TO BE SUSTAINED AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH AND THEREFORE A
WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
QUITE COLDER TEMPERATURES MOVING IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING A
SHOCK TO THE SYSTEM AS FORECAST GOES FROM NEAR RECORD HIGHS TO LOWS
NEAR FREEZING AND WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S.
07/RUA
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
THE COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE IN FOR TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY THAT WILL BRING AT LEAST A LIGHT FREEZE TO LOCATIONS
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SO WIND
CHILLS DO NOT LOOK LIKE A CONCERN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY NEW YEAR'S WITH
A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES.
STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCES ON HANDLING SOUTHERN STREAM
DISTURBANCES LATE IN THE WEEK. AT THIS TIME WILL JUST GO WITH THE
NBM AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS STARTING ON FRIDAY.
07/RUA
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
AVIATION CONCERNS ONCE AGAIN WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS
AND FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND WHEN IT LIFTS ON SATURDAY MORNING.
WIND DIRECTION IS MORE FROM A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AND A LITTLE
STRONGER AND THEREFORE, IT MAY TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO GET TO LIFR
CONDITIONS AND THESE CONDITIONS MAY BE CONFINED JUST TO THE
TERMINALS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR.
EXPECT MVFR/IFR FROM NOW THROUGH 27/09Z, WITH IFR/LIFR AT
KBPT/KLCH/KLFT/KARA AFTER 27/09Z LIFTING AT 27/16Z WITH KAEX AT IFR
BETWEEN 27/08Z AND 27/16Z.
SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR THROUGH 27/19Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS AFTER
27/19Z.
07/RUA
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NEAR FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND LOW SEAS. NO SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER,
AREAS OF SEA FOG, DENSE AT TIMES, WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO FORM
EACH NIGHT AND LAST UNTIL THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS
INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY
MONDAY MORNING WITH STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND
IT ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS PROBABLE FROM
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE
GUSTS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE OUTER WATERS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND BRINGING IN AN
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MOIST GULF AIR MASS OVER THE AREA. MINIMUM
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE 60 TO 70 PERCENT
RANGE THROUGH SUNDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FOG IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE LATE NIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING HOURS
NEAR THE COAST. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE FORECAST BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH BREAKS DOWN. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING
BRINGING MUCH COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 63 80 61 81 / 0 0 0 0
LCH 65 78 63 79 / 0 0 0 10
LFT 64 80 63 80 / 0 0 0 10
BPT 65 79 63 80 / 0 0 0 10
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR LAZ044-045-055-
073-074-152>154-241>243-252>254.
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR TXZ615-616.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST SATURDAY FOR GMZ430-432-435-
436-450-452-455.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...07
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page