993
FXUS64 KLCH 271759
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1159 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY AND
TOMORROW.
- A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING AND WILL
BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH FREEZING TEMPS EXPECTED BOTH TUES AND WED AM
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO LINGER ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF/FL, PROVIDING A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. ALOFT, RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS, ALSO RESULTING IN A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVERHEAD
ALOFT. AS A RESULT, ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY IS UNFOLDING ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA, WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT, ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG
IS EXPECTED HOWEVER, SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WINDS WILL KEEP WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG AT BAY THEREFORE, DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY DENSE FOG
ADVISORY TONIGHT. TOMORROW, ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY IS ON TAP
WITH PRETTY MUCH A REPEAT FORECAST FROM TODAY AND THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS. A PATTERN CHANGE FINALLY ARRIVES TOMORROW NIGHT HOWEVER, AS
A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEP ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE FORECAST
AREA.
THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT MON MORNING, ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY WITH POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. BEHIND THE
FRONT, WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND BEGIN TO ADVECT
A MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION. STRONG NORTH
WINDS CONTINUE THROUGHOUT MONDAY, WHICH ALONG WITH ONGOING CAA
WILL HOLD HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR MON AFTERNOON.
MONDAY NIGHT, WINDS REMAIN AT LEAST SOMEWHAT ELEVATED, WHICH WILL
PREVENT TEMPS FROM COOLING TO THEIR LOWEST POTENTIAL. STILL, WE
SHOULD FALL TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION (ALONG/NORTH OF I-10 IN PARTICULAR) FOR A FEW HOURS
NEAR/JUST BEFORE SUNRISE.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
MOVING INTO THE LONG TERM, POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER
THE ARK-LA-TEX EARLY TUESDAY, ALLOWING WINDS TO STEADILY RELAX AND
ANY LINGERING CLOUD COVER TO CLEAR THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TEMPS WILL
ONLY WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S TUES AFTERNOON, WHILE TUES
NIGHT BRINGS THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES TO SETTLE OVERHEAD AND WINDS FULLY RELAX. LOWS
WILL REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS PARTS OF INTERIORS
SOUTH LA, WITH LOW 30S ELSEWHERE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN MEANDERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, ALLOWING TEMPS TO SLOWLY MODERATE BUT
REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. HIGHS REACH INTO THE MID 50S
ON WED AND LOW TO MID 60S ON THURS, WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS COOL INTO
THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S, REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING AREA-WIDE. THURS
NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE EXITS OFF TO THE EAST ALLOWING ONSHORE FLOW TO BECOME
REESTABLISHED OVERHEAD AND IN TURN A WARMER AIRMASS TO ADVECT INTO
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK,
WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS ON TAP AS WE BEGIN THE NEW YEAR.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
A SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD DECK NEAR 2500 FT WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SW TODAY, CAUSING SITES TO
OCCASIONALLY WAFFLE BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR. LIGHT SSW FLOW WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BECOMING SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT.
TONIGHT, CEILINGS AGAIN GRADUALLY FILL IN AND FALL TO MVFR, IFR,
AND LIFR FROM NEAR MIDNIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE. FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS WELL HOWEVER, DENSE FOG IS NOT
ANTICIPATED EXCEPT IN A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS. ANY FOG THAT DOES
DEVELOP WILL BURN OFF WITH SUNRISE TOMORROW AS WINDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE AND EVENTUALLY BECOME GUSTY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT TOMORROW NIGHT. WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT NORTH AFTER
MIDNIGHT TOMORROW NIGHT/MON MORNING, AND BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY.
A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED BEGINNING AT 06Z TOMORROW NIGHT
THROUGH 00Z TUES, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25-35 KTS AND GUSTS UP
TO 40KTS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. IN ADDITION, SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 8-10 FT IN THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS AND 3-6 FEET IN THE
NEARSHORE WATERS. THIS FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SCATTERED
CONVECTION HOWEVER, SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT
ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX THROUGHOUT TUESDAY
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MIN RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S TO
MID 70S BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW. A COLD FRONT ARRIVES SUN
NIGHT/MON MORNING, ADVECTING IN A MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS
THROUGHOUT MONDAY. A COMBINATION OF MIN RH VALUES IN THE MID 20S
TO MID 30S AND STRONG NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KTS ON MONDAY
WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER, AND A FIRE WEATHER STATEMENT WILL
LIKELY NEED TO BE ISSUED. WINDS RELAX MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY UNTIL WINDS RETURN TO AN
ONSHORE FLOW AND BRING MOISTURE BACK INLAND THROUGH THE LATER HALF
OF THE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 61 81 43 52 / 0 10 70 10
LCH 63 79 47 55 / 0 20 50 10
LFT 63 80 49 56 / 0 20 50 10
BPT 63 80 47 55 / 0 10 40 10
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT TO 6 PM CST
MONDAY FOR GMZ430-432-435-436.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...17
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