717
FXUS64 KLCH 280618
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1218 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD TEMPERATURES APPROACHING RECORD TERRITORY CAN BE EXPECTED
ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
- A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND WILL
BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH FREEZING TEMPS EXPECTED BOTH TUES AND WED AM.
- A WIND ADVISORY IS IN PLACE FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, SMALL CRAFT TO GALE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE LAKES, BAYS, AND
OFFSHORE WATERS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY RESTS OVER THE EASTERN GULF WATERS
FACILITATING MODEST ONSHORE FLOW RESULTING IN A HUMID AND WARM
AFTERNOON TODAY. MEANWHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS AMPLIFYING SOUTH
ALONG THE MIDWEST. AS THE NORTHERN JET DIPS FURTHER SOUTH IN THE
LOWER 48, THIS UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL MERGE WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET
OVERHEAD AND CONTINUE SINKING SOUTHWARD. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN
RAPIDLY AS IT TRANSIT THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
BEHIND THE FRONT LIES A VERY COLD AND DRY AIRMASS. TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH, ALONG WITH
SOME SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES. DESPITE THE DECENT FORCING ALONG THE
FRONT, LITTLE INSTABILITY WILL UPSET THE SHEAR / BUOYANCY BALANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITATION WILL CLEAR AS WINDS PICKUP
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT MIDNIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON TO REFLECT THE ELEVATED SUSTAINED WINDS AND
GUSTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. NATURALLY MARINE ZONES WILL HAVE HEADLINES
IN PLACE. LIKELY TO SEE GALE FORCE CONDITIONS OFFSHORE, HOWEVER,
LAKES AND BAYS REMAIN JUST BELOW CRITERIA PER THIS FORECAST CYCLE.
AS THE GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEGIN TO EASE MONDAY NIGHT, THE OTHER PART
OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST UNFOLDS TO INCLUDE CHILLY CONDITIONS
WHICH WILL TREND INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE LONG RANGE. LOWS WILL
DROP INTO THE LOW 30'S WITH CLEARING SKIES. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CENLA. HOWEVER, WHEN
FACTORING WINDS INTO THE EQUATION, WINDCHILLS WILL BE IN THE 20S.
LOOKING UNLIKELY THAT A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED MONDAY
NIGHT AS CONDITIONS ARE SET TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE CRITERIA.
KOWALSKI / 30
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
TUESDAY HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE THROUGH THE 40'S, POSSIBLY BREACHING
50°F IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL CALM OVERNIGHT ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO COOL BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST LOCATIONS- SANS THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE AND COMMUNITIES. PORTIONS OF ACADIANA AND CENLA
WILL HAVE OPPORTUNITY TO OBSERVE UPPER 20'S BY DAWN WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
HEREAFTER, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BROADEN ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
MODERATE SOME WEDNESDAY WITH 60S BACK IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY AS
WEAK ONSHORE FLOW RESUMES. WHILE SKIES REMAIN FREE OF PRECIPITATION,
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO WARM UP AS SOUTHERLIES PICKUP FRIDAY WITH
ABOVE MILD WEATHER TAKING PLACE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
ONSHORE WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT TOMORROW NIGHT. WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH
AFTER MIDNIGHT TOMORROW NIGHT/MON MORNING, AND BECOME STRONG AND
GUSTY. A GALE WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE BEGINNING AT 06Z TOMORROW NIGHT
THROUGH 00Z TUES, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25-35 KTS AND GUSTS UP
TO 40KTS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. IN ADDITION, SEAS WILL BUILD
TO 6-8 FT IN THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS AND 3-6 FEET IN THE NEARSHORE
WATERS. THIS FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION
HOWEVER, SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT ANTICIPATED. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX THROUGHOUT TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
KOWALSKI / 30
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
CONDITIONS ARE SLOWLY DETERIORATING TO MVFR / IFR VIS AND
CEILINGS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW LOW CLOUDS TO FORM OVERNIGHT
THROUGH SUNRISE WITH PATCHES OF FOG. A FEW AREAS MAY TEMPO INTO
DENSE FOG OR LIFR CEILINGS. WINDS WILL INCREASE MID MORNING
CLEARING OUR IFR CONDITIONS. MVFR CEILINGS MAY HOLD INTO THE
AFTERNOON FOR SOME TERMINALS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
ONSHORE WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT TOMORROW NIGHT. WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH
AFTER MIDNIGHT TOMORROW NIGHT/MON MORNING, AND BECOME STRONG AND
GUSTY. A GALE WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE BEGINNING AT 06Z TOMORROW NIGHT
THROUGH 00Z TUES, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25-35 KTS AND GUSTS UP
TO 40KTS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. IN ADDITION, SEAS WILL BUILD
TO 6-8 FT IN THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS AND 3-6 FEET IN THE NEARSHORE
WATERS. THIS FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION
HOWEVER, SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT ANTICIPATED. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX THROUGHOUT TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH
THIS EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT, A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA THROUGH MON MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ADVECT
A MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS THROUGHOUT MONDAY. A COMBINATION OF
MIN RH VALUES IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S AND STRONG NORTH WINDS
GUSTING TO 25-30 KTS ON MONDAY WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER, AND
A FIRE WEATHER STATEMENT WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ISSUED. WINDS RELAX
MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY
UNTIL WINDS RETURN TO AN ONSHORE FLOW AND BRING MOISTURE BACK INLAND
THROUGH THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 80 42 52 30 / 0 60 0 0
LCH 78 46 54 36 / 10 60 10 0
LFT 80 47 54 33 / 20 60 10 0
BPT 80 45 56 35 / 0 40 0 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR
LAZ044-045-055-073-074-152>154-241>243-252>254.
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR
TXZ615-616.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST MONDAY
FOR GMZ430-432-435-436.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR GMZ450-
452-455-470-472-475.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...30
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