111
FXUS64 KLCH 282347
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
547 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND WILL
BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK WITH FREEZING TEMPS EXPECTED BOTH TUES AND WED AM.
- A WIND ADVISORY IS IN PLACE FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT. ADDITIONALLY, SMALL CRAFT TO
GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE LAKES, BAYS,
AND OFFSHORE WATERS.
- TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE MID TO LATER HALF
OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE TRAVERSES THE SOUTHEASTERN US.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 541 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
SUNDAY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE NEAR FL WHILE
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO THE SOUTHER PLAINS. BREEZY ONSHORE
FLOW ONGOING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVECT A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE REGION TODAY, MARKING OUR
LAST DAY OF UNSEASONABLE WARMTH BEFORE A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS
ARRIVES. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY APPROACHING 80 DEGREES AT THE
TIME OF THIS WRITING, SO I WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF WE BREAK SOME
RECORDS TODAY.
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW, THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, ACCOMPANIED BY A LINE OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY A VERY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO. WHILE THE INITIAL PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL BE RATHER
UNEVENTFUL, THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL BE WHEN THE REAL "FUN"
BEGINS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT, QUICKLY
BECOMING STRONG AND GUSTY AND ADVECTING IN A MUCH COLDER AND DRIER
AIRMASS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. TOMORROW, BOTH
TEMPERATURES AND APPARENT TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM INTO THE
LOWER 50S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TOMORROW NIGHT, WINDS REMAIN AT
LEAST SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WHICH WILL PREVENT LOWS FROM COOLING TO
THEIR FULL POTENTIAL HOWEVER, WE SHOULD STILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S AREAWIDE, WITH FREEZING TEMPS EXPECTED NORTH OF I-190 AS
WELL AS DOWN INTO THE ACADIANA AREA.
TUESDAY, WINDS FINALLY BEGIN TO FULL RELAX AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE ARK-LA-TEX. TUES AND TUES NIGHT WILL
BRING OUR COLDEST TEMPS OF THE PERIOD, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOW 50S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.
FREEZING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST, WITH MOST LOCATIONS FALLING BELOW FREEZING FOR 6+ HOURS.
OTHERWISE, TUESDAY SHOULD BE PLEASANT IF YOU ENJOY THE COLD, WITH
CLEAR SUNNY SKIES AND RELAXING WINDS EXPECTED.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 541 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST/SOUTHEASTERN US THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD, BEGINNING
OVERHEAD ON WED AND SHIFTING TOWARDS FLORIDA BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE WINDS TO SHIFT BACK TO A SW TO S
FLOW AND TEMPERATURES TO STEADILY MODERATE THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
HIGHS WILL WARM FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ON WED INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ON THURS, AND FINALLY INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S
BY FRI INTO THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR CONCERNS OR PATTERN
CHANGES EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN RATHER
LOW UNTIL THE START OF THE WEEKEND, AND EVEN THEN ONLY SOME VERY
SMALL POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST AS NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS
ARE EXPECTED FOR A BIT.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 541 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ONGOING WITH TAPERED WIND GUSTS LIKELY TO
MAKE A RETURN GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH, WE CAN EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 541 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT
AND QUICKLY BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
25-35 KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGHOUT
TOMORROW. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH 00Z
TOMORROW EVENING, FOLLOWED BY A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT AS WINDS BEGIN TO SLOWLY RELAX. WINDS CONTINUE TO
RELAX THROUGH TUES AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 541 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW
RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT TOMORROW. A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL SPREAD INTO THE
REGION POST-FRONTAL PASSAGE CAUSING RH VALUES TO PLUMMET INTO THE
LOW 20S TO LOW 30S, WHILE AT THE SAME TIME WINDS WILL BECOME
STRONG AND GUSTY, WITH GUSTS IN THE 25-30 KTS RANGE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT TOMORROW. THEREFORE, A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR 7AM THROUGH 7PM TOMORROW. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY RELAX
AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD
HOWEVER, DRY CONDITIONS WITH VERY LOW RH VALUES WILL LINGER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN BY THE LATER HALF OF
THE WEEK AS ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES REESTABLISHED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 41 52 30 49 / 70 0 0 0
LCH 45 54 34 52 / 60 0 0 0
LFT 46 53 32 50 / 60 10 0 0
BPT 45 54 35 54 / 40 0 0 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR
LAZ044-045-055-073-074-152>154-241>243-252>254.
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR
TXZ615-616.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY
FOR GMZ430-432-435-436.
GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ450-
452-455-470-472-475.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...87
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