459
FXUS64 KLCH 290612
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1212 AM CST MON DEC 29 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING.
IT WILL BRING COLDER TEMPS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK
WITH FREEZING TEMPS EXPECTED BOTH TUES AND WED AM.
- A WIND ADVISORY IS IN PLACE FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ADDITIONALLY, SMALL CRAFT TO GALE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE LAKES, BAYS, AND GULF WATERS.
- TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE MID TO LATER HALF
OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE TRAVERSES THE SOUTHEASTERN US.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST MON DEC 29 2025
THE COLD FRONT IS ENTERING PORTIONS OF SETX AND CENLA, WITH A
LINE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT BISECTING THE CWA. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA, CLEARING THE CWA
COMPLETELY BY SUNRISE.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO
FILTER IN AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS, RESULTING IN
BLUSTERY NORTHERLY WINDS. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED 20
MPH ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR, PROMPTING THE ISSUANCE
OF A WIND ADVISORY, WHICH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS
EVENING. WHILE SOME AREAS NORTH OF I-10 COULD SEE OCCASIONAL GUSTS
OF 20 TO 30 MPH, SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MEET
ADVISORY CRITERIA. NEVERTHELESS, CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE BREEZY
AREA WIDE.
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL TAPER SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT, THEY WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED ENOUGH, IN COMBINATION WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S, TO YIELD APPARENT TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
THE LOWER TO UPPER 20S. THIS IS NEAR COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
CRITERIA, AND IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT AN ADVISORY COULD
BE ISSUED FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES OF THIS BRIEF COLD SNAP ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S. FORTUNATELY, WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE CONSIDERABLY
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, RESULTING
IN APPARENT TEMPERATURES NOT FAR FROM ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES.
UNFORTUNATELY, PORTIONS OF THE CWA WILL EXPERIENCE TEMPERATURES AT
OR BELOW FREEZING FOR APPROXIMATELY 5 TO 10 HOURS TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TUESDAY WILL REACH THE 50S UNDER
CLEARING TO SUNNY SKIES. BY WEDNESDAY, THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
SETTLE ALONG THE GULF COAST BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTH OVER THE GULF
WATERS. WINDS WILL TURN OUT OF THE WSW, WITH INCREASING MOISTURE
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND HEADING INTO THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST MON DEC 29 2025
BY THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE POSITIONED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF, WHERE IT WILL MEANDER BEFORE
MOVING EASTWARD LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. WINDS WILL RETURN OUT OF
THE SOUTH, USHERING IN INCREASED MOISTURE AND INITIATING A WARMING
TREND. TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WORK WEEK WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 70S, WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. DURING THE
WEEKEND, A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST ALONG WITH A BRIEF
DROP IN TEMPERATURES; HOWEVER, READINGS WILL REBOUND QUICKLY AS
ONSHORE FLOW RESUMES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST MON DEC 29 2025
A LINE OF SHOWERS IS RACING ACROSS THE CWA, CURRENTLY IMPACTING
SETX AND CENLA. AHEAD OF THE LINE, AREAS OF PATCHY FOG ARE
PRESENT, BUT THESE WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AS WINDS SHARPLY
INCREASE OUT OF THE WNW BEFORE TURNING NORTHERLY THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED FOR MUCH OF THE
CYCLE BEFORE TAPERING LATE MONDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST MON DEC 29 2025
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT
AND QUICKLY BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
25-35 KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGHOUT
TOMORROW. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH 00Z
TOMORROW EVENING, FOLLOWED BY A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT AS WINDS BEGIN TO SLOWLY RELAX. WINDS CONTINUE TO
RELAX THROUGH TUES AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD. FOR SABINE
AND CALCASIEU LAKES, A LOW WATER ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM
3AM TO NOON MONDAY, WITH VALUES FORECAST TO HIT -1 TO -1.5 MLLW.
SUBSEQUENT LO.YS ARE NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY FOR
TUESDAY DURING THE SAME TIMEFRAME.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST MON DEC 29 2025
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA, RESULTING IN A PERIOD
OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT MONDAY. A MUCH
DRIER AIRMASS WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION POST- FRONTAL PASSAGE
CAUSING RH VALUES TO PLUMMET INTO THE LOW 20S TO LOW 30S, WHILE AT
THE SAME TIME WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY, WITH GUSTS IN
THE 25-30 KTS RANGE EXPECTED. THEREFORE, A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR 7AM THROUGH 7PM. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY RELAX
AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD
HOWEVER, DRY CONDITIONS WITH VERY LOW RH VALUES WILL LINGER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN BY THE LATER HALF OF
THE WEEK AS ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES REESTABLISHED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 52 29 50 28 / 0 0 0 0
LCH 54 34 52 32 / 0 0 0 0
LFT 53 32 50 29 / 0 0 0 0
BPT 55 34 54 33 / 0 0 0 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LAZ044-045-055-073-
074-152>154-241>243-252>254.
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ615-616.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ430-432-435-
436.
LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO NOON CST
TODAY FOR GMZ430-432.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ450-452-455-470-
472-475.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY
FOR GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475.
SHORT TERM...87
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...87
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