564
FXUS64 KLCH 071144
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
544 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH TEMPS RANGING IN THE 70S CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
POTENTIAL FOR NOCTURNAL FOG AS ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILS.
- LOW END RAIN CHANCES RETURN EARLY THURSDAY WITH A DISTURBANCE
DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL TEXAS. THERE IS AN INCREASING RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE EARLY FRIDAY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
INTO SATURDAY.
- SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES, NEAR SEASONAL NORMS, ARE EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT FRIDAY. NO HARD
FREEZE IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 536 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
THREE MORE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID DAYS LIE AHEAD OF US BEFORE
WE FINALLY RETURN TO NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES HOWEVER, THAT
WILL UNFORTUNATELY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE LONG TERM PERIOD. UNTIL
THEN, ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND A W TO SW FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO PUMP WARM, MOIST AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. APART FROM
UNSEASONABLE TEMPS, THIS WILL BRING A FEW MORE LATE NIGHTS/MORNINGS
OF DENSE FOG, WITH AN AREA-WIDE DENSE FOG ADVISORY CURRENTLY IN
AFFECT UNTIL 10AM AND ANOTHER ONE LIKELY BEING NEEDED FOR
TONIGHT/TOMORROW MORNING. TODAY BRINGS PRETTY MUCH A REPEAT OF THE
LAST FEW DAYS, WITH CLOUD COVER LINGERING WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON
WHILE HIGHS REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. TOMORROW, REPEAT THIS
FORECAST BUT ADD IN SMALL RAIN CHANCES, IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE ARK-LA-TEX IN THE SWRLY FLOW ALOFT.
WHILE WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS STREAMING NORTH OUT
OF THE GULF, THE MAJORITY OF THURSDAY'S CONVECTION WILL REMAIN OFF
TO OUR NORTHWEST CLOSER TO THE DISTURBANCE.
MOVING INTO FRIDAY, THE PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE PLAINS, GIVING A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE MIDWEST AND ITS TRAILING A COLD FRONT A PUSH
TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. THIS FRONT SHOULD BE NEAR THE ARK-LA-TEX BY
FRIDAY MORNING, EVENTUALLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE CWA FRIDAY
EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MOISTURE WILL
SURGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST, WITH PWATS INCREASING WELL
ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE AND LIKELY APPROACHING THE DAILY MAX
ACCORDING TO SPC CLIMO. AT THIS TIME, WE ARE NOT INCLUDED IN
FRIDAY'S ERO, LIKELY DUE TO THE FACT WE'VE BEEN RELATIVELY DRY
RECENTLY. ON THE FLIP SIDE, THE CONCERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS
INCREASED SINCE LAST NIGHT, AND SPC HAS OUTLINED PART OF CENLA/SOUTH-
CENTRAL LA IN THE DAY 4 15% RISK AREA. FOR NOW, MOST LIKELY SCENARIO
LOOKS TO BE DISCRETE CELLS STREAMING NORTH/NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THE DAY WELL AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE WHICH WILL BRING
THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT LATER IN THE DAY INTO FRI NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 536 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
BY SATURDAY MORNING, THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE NEARLY THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA AND MAKING ITS WAY INTO SE LA. POST FRONTAL SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ALOFT, THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH
WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDWEST THROUGHOUT
SAT, EVENTUALLY ALLOWING A NW FLOW TO DEVELOP ALOFT BY THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING SORT OF A MIXED BAG OF
CONDITIONS OF SAT, AS A COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS FILTERS IN AT THE
SURFACE BUT ALOFT MOISTURE AND OVERCAST CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER. IN
ADDITION A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVERHEAD BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
FRONT AND THE APPROACHING HIGH WILL ALLOW NORTH WINDS TO BE
RELATIVELY GUSTY, WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH OVERCAST SKIES AND CAA
WILL LEAD TO A RATHER COOL AND GLOOMY SATURDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY, EVENTUALLY SETTLING OVERHEAD MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ALOFT,
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF NW FLOW ON SUNDAY, ZONAL FLOW RETURNS
THEREAFTER. THIS WILL BRING A FEW COOL AND CLOUDY DAYS AS WE HEAD
INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S AMID
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. OVERNIGHT, LOWS WILL DIP TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW
FREEZING FOR CENLA BOTH MON AND TUES MORNING, WHILE THE REMAINDER OF
THE REGION FALLS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 536 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
IFR TO LIFR CIGS AND VIS AS A RESULT OF WIDESPREAD FOG THIS
MORNING. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BURN OFF THIS MORNING SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE. SOME MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN UNTIL THE LATE MORNING HOURS,
WITH A WINDOW OF VFR FROM THAT POINT UNTIL YET ANOTHER ROUND OF
FOG LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 536 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
PERIODS OF MARINE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK AS WARM HAIR CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER COOLER SHELF
WATERS. LIGHT SW WINDS BECOME MORE DUE S OVERNIGHT AND BEGIN TO
INCREASE SLIGHTLY TOMORROW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS/SEAS
WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THIS PERIOD BUT SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT TURNING WINDS TO THE NW AND N AND ALLOWING
THEM TO BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN ADDITION,
THIS FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND STORMS, WITH
ISOLATED ACTIVITY BEGINNING AS EARLY AS TOMORROW AND MORE
SIGNIFICANT STORMS OCCURRING FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 536 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
LIGHT SW WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY LATER TODAY BEFORE INCREASING
A BIT TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO
TIGHTEN OVERHEAD. BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY, ALLOWING A WARM, MOIST
AIRMASS TO LINGER OVERHEAD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AS A
RESULT, MINRH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 70S
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BEHIND THE FRONT, WINDS BECOME
NORTHERLY WITH FREQUENT GUSTS, ADVECTING IN A COOLER AND DRIER
AIRMASS THROUGHOUT SAT THAT WON'T REALLY BE NOTICEABLE UNTIL THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WHEN MINRH VALUES FALL INTO THE UPPER
20S TO MID 30S.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 77 60 78 64 / 0 0 30 50
LCH 76 63 77 66 / 0 0 40 50
LFT 78 63 79 67 / 0 0 30 70
BPT 79 63 79 65 / 0 0 30 30
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LAZ027>033-
044-045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-
259>262-515-516-615-616.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ430-432-435-436-
450-452-455.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...87
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