852
FXUS64 KLCH 071827
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1227 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH TEMPS RANGING IN THE 70S CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
POTENTIAL FOR NOCTURNAL FOG AS ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILS.
- LOW END RAIN CHANCES RETURN EARLY THURSDAY WITH A DISTURBANCE
DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL TEXAS. THERE IS AN INCREASING RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE EARLY FRIDAY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH A LIGHT FREEZE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
MORNINGS IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS STRETCHED FROM FLORIDA INTO THE ATLANTIC. A
COLD FRONT IS ALSO ALONG A ROUGH LINE FROM DEL RIO, TX TO SHREVEPORT
TO NASHVILLE, TN. AROUND THIS RIDGE AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT A
VERY WARM AND MOIST SOUTH FLOW IS STREAMING NORTH ACROSS THE LOCAL
REGION. FOG AND STRATUS HAS LINGERED THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH THIS
WAA REGIME, AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT. ALOFT, AN UPPER LOW IS
MOVING INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE
PLAINS BY THURSDAY WITH THE MAIN AREA OF FORCING REMAINING WELL
NORTH, HOWEVER ENOUGH LIFT WILL MOVE ACROSS SE TX AND LA THAT
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A LEESIDE LOW
WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE
ROCKIES WHICH WILL INCREASE WINDS EARLY AROUND SUNRISE LOCALLY,
OR PERHAPS BEFORE. WHILE FOG IS ANTICIPATED AGAIN TONIGHT,
CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE FAIRLY EARLY DUE TO INCREASED MIXING. AN
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS MOST LIKELY TO HAVE DENSE FOG
ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT, BUT IT MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED NORTH OR IT
COULD BE CANCELED EARLIER AS WINDS INCREASE.
A SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE LARGER TROUGH BY
FRIDAY. THIS WILL CREATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. SHEAR
WILL BE DECREASING AS THIS SECOND ROUND MOVES INTO THE REGION, BUT
ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE THAT A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH DISCRETE CELLS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.
GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE, BUT WITH FAIRLY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FLOODING IS
NOT A LARGE CONCERN AND AREAL AVERAGE RAIN AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
BETWEEN 0.5 AND 1.5".
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY WITH RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY. DREARY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE DAY AS A COLDER AIRMASS SPILLS IN. SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO
NORMS. A LIGHT FREEZE IS POSSIBLE ACROSS CEN LA MONDAY AND TUESDAY
MORNINGS.
THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY WHICH WILL BEGIN
THE WARM UP INTO MID TO LATE WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
MVFR STRATUS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. BR/FG
AND STRATUS WILL COMBINE TO LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES THIS EVENING
INTO EARLY THURSDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY THU WITH FOG MIXING
OUT AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
SEA FOG WILL BE A CONCERN AGAIN TONIGHT, HOWEVER WINDS WILL
INCREASE THURSDAY MIXING OUT FOG EARLIER THAN TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY WITH A MODERATE
TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW INTO SUNDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
LIGHT SW WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY LATER TODAY BEFORE INCREASING
A BIT TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO
TIGHTEN OVERHEAD. BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY, ALLOWING A WARM, MOIST
AIRMASS TO LINGER OVERHEAD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AS A
RESULT, MINRH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 70S
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BEHIND THE FRONT, WINDS BECOME
NORTHERLY WITH FREQUENT GUSTS, ADVECTING IN A COOLER AND DRIER
AIRMASS THROUGHOUT SAT THAT WON'T REALLY BE NOTICEABLE UNTIL THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WHEN MINRH VALUES FALL INTO THE UPPER
20S TO MID 30S.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 62 78 65 77 / 0 20 60 90
LCH 63 77 66 77 / 0 30 60 90
LFT 63 78 67 78 / 0 20 80 100
BPT 64 78 65 79 / 0 20 40 80
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR LAZ044-045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR TXZ515-516-615-616.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR GMZ430-432-435-436-450-452-455.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...05
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