433
FXUS64 KLCH 080603
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1203 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH TEMPS RANGING IN THE 70S CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
POTENTIAL FOR NOCTURNAL FOG AS ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILS.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN EARLY THURSDAY WITH A DISTURBANCE
DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL TEXAS. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER FROM THE EARLY FRIDAY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS INTO
EARLY SATURDAY.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH A LIGHT FREEZE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
MORNINGS IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN GULF
HAVE COMBINED TO CAUSE A VERY WARM JANUARY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURE
RECORDS CLOSE TO OR BEING BROKEN MOST DAYS THIS WEEK. THIS PATTERN
IS BEGINNING TO CHANGE AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING FROM
MEXICO INTO ARIZONA AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD. THIS
TROUGH WILL CAUSE THE FIRST ROUND OF UNSETTLED WEATHER. AS THE LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN WARM AIR
ADVECTION AS SOUTH WINDS WILL BE GUSTING UP TO 25 - 30 MPH. WITH
THE ADVECTION OF WARM MOIST GULF AIR PWATS WILL QUICKLY RISE
REACHING 1.5 INCHES BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE. EVEN WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT FORECAST,
SOUNDINGS SHOW A THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE THAT IS UNSUPPORTIVE OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THE LOW-END RAIN CHANCES (25%) SUPPORT THAT
ANALYSIS.
FRIDAY WILL BE THE DAY TO WATCH AS A SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
ACROSS A LONGWAVE TROUGH AND BRING THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER TO
THE REGION. AS STATED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS THIS EVENT WILL BE A
HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE EVENT WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR BETWEEN 30 TO 50
KNOTS BUT MUCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, CONVECTION
WILL BE ISOLATED WITH LONG RANGE CAM MODELS INDICATING AN
ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED SUPERCELLS, WITH THE MAIN
LIMITING FACTOR BEING A LACK OF CAPE. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA THE MOST STORM MODE WILL LIKELY BE QCLS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH AHEAD OF AND
WITH THE FRONT. THE SPC HAS THE ENTIRE AREA UNDER A MARGINAL RISK
(LEVEL 1 OF 5) WITH CENTRAL LOUISIANA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2
OF 5). THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH ISOLATED
TORNADOES. MAKE SURE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER, HIGH PWAT VALUES, ABOVE
THE 95TH PERCENTILE WILL LEAD TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT THE WPC HAS PLACED OUR AREA UNDER A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1
OF 4) FOR FLASH FLOODING.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW FREEZING NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK TEMPERATURES
WILL BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
AROUND MIDWEEK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE TO OUR EAST AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL START TO RAISE OUR TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
DENSE FOG WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR VIS AND CIGS UNTIL
AFTER SUNRISE. AFTER SUNRISE CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO COME FROM THE SOUTH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
DENSE SEA FOG CONTINUES TO BE AN ISSUE WITH VISIBILITES BELOW 1
SM UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE WITH THE ADVISORY ENDING AT 18Z. STRONG
SOUTH WINDS WILL CAUSE CONDITIONS TO BE CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LASTING UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT
STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THE START OF THE
WORK WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH HUMIDITY HAS LIMITED THE RISK OF FIRE
WEATHER. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY
WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MINIMUM RH VALUES
WILL DROP DOWN TO THE 20 AND 30% RANGE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 78 65 78 52 / 20 60 90 90
LCH 77 67 77 56 / 30 50 90 80
LFT 79 67 78 61 / 20 70 90 90
BPT 79 66 79 55 / 30 30 80 70
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LAZ044-045-
055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ515-516-
615-616.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ430-432-435-436-
450-452-455.
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...14
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page