867
FXUS64 KLCH 090605
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1205 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (2/5) OF SEVERE WEATHER FROM FRIDAY
MORNING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. MAKE SURE YOU HAVE A WAY TO
RECEIVE WARNINGS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY.
- A MARGINAL RISK (1/4) FOR FLASH FLOODING ON SATURDAY.
- MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN SATURDAY AND WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THRU NEXT WEEK. STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THRU MONDAY. BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE WILD FIRE
CONCERNS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
MOISTURE RETURN IS WELL IN EFFECT AS PWATS HAVE JUMPED OVER HALF
AN INCH FROM THE PREVIOUS 00Z SOUNDING. OVER THE ROCKIES A
LONGWAVE TROUGH IS DEEPENING AND PROPAGATING TO THE EAST. THIS
FEATURE WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER ON FRIDAY AND IS THE REASON
FOR BOTH OUR SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
FRIDAY MORNING THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO INFLUENCE THE REGION.
ACROSS THE REGION BULK SHEAR (0-6 KM) WILL BE 40 TO 60 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER SHEAR AMOUNTS FARTHER INLAND. THESE ARE SIGNIFICANT VALUES
FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AND MESOCYCLONE GENESIS. THE MAIN
LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE A LACK OF CAPE, WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE
SPC SLIGHT RISK ENDING WEST OF THE SABINE RIVER AS CAPE VALUES ARE
HIGHER IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN LOUISIANA. UNFORTUNATELY, THE
LATEST CAM MODEL RUNS HAVE ALL INCREASED CAPE AMOUNTS FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH AVERAGE VALUES FOR MLCAPE AROUND 1000
J/KG AND MUCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DANGEROUS
SETUP TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS DISCRETE CELLS COULD QUICKLY BECOME
SUPERCELLS. FORECAST HODOGRAPH SHOW AN ENVIRONMENT WITH MUCH MORE
SPEED SHEAR THAN DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITH STRAIGHT-LINE WIND
PROFILES. THIS WIND PROFILE TENDS TO PRODUCE SPLITTING STORMS AND
FAVORS DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL AS THE MAIN WEATHER THREATS.
BUT IT IS IMPORTANT TO HIGHLIGHT THE TORNADO THREAT FOR THE
REGION. WHILE THE TORNADO THREAT WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS THE
DAMAGING WIND THREAT, MESO AND STORM SCALE INFLUENCES CAN QUICKLY
INCREASE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AT THE 0-1 KM LEVEL. ON THE MESOSCALE,
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE 700 MB FLOW COULD ENHANCE CONVECTION AND
SHOULD BE WATCHED CLOSELY. WHILE AT THE STORM SCALE, BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS AND CELL MERGERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE SIMILARLY
CONCERNING. AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION, AROUND 1 AM
SATURDAY, CONVECTION WILL BE PUSHED OUT OF THE AREA.
IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT, FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
A CONCERN TOMORROW AS PWAT VALUES WILL SURGE ABOVE THE 95TH
PERCENTILE. THE MAIN CONCERN FRIDAY WILL BE TRAINING STORMS THAT
DUMP SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE SAME AREA. WITH THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE IN OUR ENVIRONMENT, WE CAN EXPECT EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS
TOMORROW.
BEHIND THE FRONT, CONDITIONS WILL BE COLDER, DRIER, AND WITH CLEAR
SKIES. WE COULD ALSO SEE FREEZING TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT
ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND THE INTERIOR OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
BEHIND THE FRONT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GULF COAST,
LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND MILD CONDITIONS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 60S NEXT WEEK AS OUR
TEMPERATURES DROP DOWN INTO MORE SEASONAL NORMS. STARTING MIDWEEK,
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO OUR EAST AND TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
DUE TO WAA.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE MVFR TO IFR WITH LOW CIGS. SHOWERS
WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AFTER SUNRISE WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. NEAR CONVECTION CONDITIONS WILL BE IFR TO LIFR WITH
HEAVY DOWNPOURS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY WINDS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT OUR COASTAL WATERS. SOME OF THESE STORMS
WILL BE ON THE STRONG SIDE AND THERE IS A THREAT FOR WATERSPOUTS
AS WELL. BEHIND THE FRONT, WINDS WILL BE OFFSHORE WITH GUSTS NEAR
30 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BUILD IN RESPONSE TO THE WINDS WITH WAVE
HEIGHTS UP TO 6 FEET. WITH THE STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS, A LOW WATER
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ON SUNDAY AND GOING INTO MONDAY. FOR THE
REST OF THE FORECAST, CONDITIONS WILL BE MILD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON SATURDAY, STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL
QUICKLY CAUSE MINIMUM RH VALUES TO FALL INTO THE 30S. WHILE HEAVY
RAIN WILL LIMIT FIRE POTENTIAL SATURDAY, BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL HAVE NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH LOW RH VALUES.
INCREASED FIRE PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN THIS WEEKEND AND THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 77 57 64 38 / 80 90 30 0
LCH 78 60 67 42 / 70 90 50 10
LFT 78 64 68 43 / 80 90 70 10
BPT 79 58 66 42 / 60 80 30 10
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...14
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