779
FXUS64 KLCH 091140
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
540 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (2/5) OF SEVERE WEATHER FROM FRIDAY
MORNING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. MAKE SURE YOU HAVE A WAY TO
RECEIVE WARNINGS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY.
- A MARGINAL RISK (1/4) FOR FLASH FLOODING ON SATURDAY.
- MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN SATURDAY AND WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THRU NEXT WEEK. STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THRU MONDAY. BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE WILD FIRE
CONCERNS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 537 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
MOISTURE RETURN IS WELL IN EFFECT AS PWATS HAVE JUMPED OVER HALF
AN INCH FROM THE PREVIOUS 00Z SOUNDING. OVER THE ROCKIES A
LONGWAVE TROUGH IS DEEPENING AND PROPAGATING TO THE EAST. THIS
FEATURE WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER ON FRIDAY AND IS THE REASON
FOR BOTH OUR SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
FRIDAY MORNING THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO INFLUENCE THE REGION.
ACROSS THE REGION BULK SHEAR (0-6 KM) WILL BE 40 TO 60 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER SHEAR AMOUNTS FARTHER INLAND. THESE ARE SIGNIFICANT VALUES
FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AND MESOCYCLONE GENESIS. THE MAIN
LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE A LACK OF CAPE, WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE
SPC SLIGHT RISK ENDING WEST OF THE SABINE RIVER AS CAPE VALUES ARE
HIGHER IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN LOUISIANA. UNFORTUNATELY, THE
LATEST CAM MODEL RUNS HAVE ALL INCREASED CAPE AMOUNTS FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH AVERAGE VALUES FOR MLCAPE AROUND 1000
J/KG AND MUCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DANGEROUS
SETUP TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS DISCRETE CELLS COULD QUICKLY BECOME
SUPERCELLS. FORECAST HODOGRAPH SHOW AN ENVIRONMENT WITH MUCH MORE
SPEED SHEAR THAN DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITH STRAIGHT-LINE WIND
PROFILES. THIS WIND PROFILE TENDS TO PRODUCE SPLITTING STORMS AND
FAVORS DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL AS THE MAIN WEATHER THREATS.
BUT IT IS IMPORTANT TO HIGHLIGHT THE TORNADO THREAT FOR THE
REGION. WHILE THE TORNADO THREAT WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS THE
DAMAGING WIND THREAT, MESO AND STORM SCALE INFLUENCES CAN QUICKLY
INCREASE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AT THE 0-1 KM LEVEL. ON THE MESOSCALE,
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE 700 MB FLOW COULD ENHANCE CONVECTION AND
SHOULD BE WATCHED CLOSELY. WHILE AT THE STORM SCALE, BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS AND CELL MERGERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE SIMILARLY
CONCERNING. AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION, AROUND 1 AM
SATURDAY, CONVECTION WILL BE PUSHED OUT OF THE AREA.
IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT, FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
A CONCERN TOMORROW AS PWAT VALUES WILL SURGE ABOVE THE 95TH
PERCENTILE. THE MAIN CONCERN FRIDAY WILL BE TRAINING STORMS THAT
DUMP SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE SAME AREA. WITH THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE IN OUR ENVIRONMENT, WE CAN EXPECT EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS
TOMORROW.
BEHIND THE FRONT, CONDITIONS WILL BE COLDER, DRIER, AND WITH CLEAR
SKIES. WE COULD ALSO SEE FREEZING TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT
ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND THE INTERIOR OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 537 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
BEHIND THE FRONT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GULF COAST,
LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND MILD CONDITIONS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 60S NEXT WEEK AS OUR
TEMPERATURES DROP DOWN INTO MORE SEASONAL NORMS. STARTING MIDWEEK,
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO OUR EAST AND TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
DUE TO WAA.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 537 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
A MESSY WEATHER PATTERN WILL UNFOLD TODAY AND LINGER THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD, WITH ALL MODES OF HAZARDS POSSIBLE. NOW
THROUGH THIS EVENING, PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWER ACTIVITY
WITH OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL STREAM FROM SW TO NE ACROSS
THE REGION, OCCASIONALLY PASSING ACROSS THE TERMINALS AND
REDUCING VIS/CIGS. THESE REDUCTIONS SHOULD BE RATHER SHORT LIVED,
BUT THEY MAY BECOME FREQUENT, ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASES A BIT. TONIGHT, A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA, ACCOMPANIED BY A LINE
OF STORMS THAT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE 03-10Z
TIMEFRAME ROUGHLY. THIS LINE WILL BRING FURTHER REDUCTIONS IN
VIS/CIGS THAT WILL LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
IN ADDITION, WINDS WILL SHIFT NW TO N BEHIND THE FRONT AND BEGIN
TO INCREASE THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 77 57 64 38 / 80 90 30 0
LCH 78 60 67 42 / 70 90 50 10
LFT 78 64 68 43 / 80 90 70 10
BPT 79 58 66 42 / 60 80 30 10
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...17
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