008
FXUS64 KLCH 120603
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1203 AM CST MON JAN 12 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- A LIGHT FREEZE IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING.
- A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
KEEPING TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.
- ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION NEXT
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST MON JAN 12 2026
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CI CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING AS THEY HAVE BEEN FOR THE LAST 30 HOURS OR SO.
THESE WILL AID A BIT IN KEEPING OVERNIGHT LOWS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THEIR
LOWEST POTENTIAL, BUT A LIGHT, SHORT DURATION, FREEZE WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND INTERIOR PARTS
OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE CI IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR THROUGH
THE DAY MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST, BUT THE COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL KEEP
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 50S. A VERY SIMILAR EVOLUTION IS EXPECTED
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH A FEW NORTHERN AREAS POTENTIALLY
SEEING A SHORT DURATION FREEZE JUST BEFORE SUNRISE BEFORE
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60.
WINDS WILL TURN OUT OF THE SOUTH LATE TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS OFF TO THE EAST AHEAD OF AN ACCELERATING UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SWEPT ALONG BY A SOUTHWARD
ADVANCING TROF AND COLD FRONT. GUIDANCE IS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON NEITHER OF THESE FEATURES HAVING MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
THERE WILL BE A NOTABLE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY, BUT POPS WILL REMAIN BELOW 20% AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
JONES
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST MON JAN 12 2026
BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE.
PROBABILISTIC SURGE GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOMEWHAT
EXTREME LOW WATER CONDITIONS DURING THE LOW TIDE PERIOD THURSDAY
WITH WATER LEVELS POTENTIALLY FALLING TO AS LOW AS -3.0 MLLW. SHOULD
THIS VERIFY, UNUSUALLY LARGE SWATHS OF SABINE AND CALCASIEU LAKE
BEDS COULD BE UNCOVERED.
WINDS WILL ABATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BECOMES CENTERED OVERHEAD BEFORE QUICKLY SHIFTING
EAST OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY TURNING WINDS BACK OUT OF THE SOUTH
AHEAD OF ANOTHER DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION NEXT WEEKEND.
JONES
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST MON JAN 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BKN HIGH
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED NEARLY OVERHEAD.
JONES
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST MON JAN 12 2026
LOW WATER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING LOW TIDE THIS
MORNING IN SABINE AND CALCASIEU LAKES AS WELL AS VERMILION BAY.
WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO -1.0 MLLW. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
CONTINUE TO LOWER THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW PREVAILING
TODAY AND TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY TURN ONSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS
WILL AGAIN CREATE LOW WATER CONDITIONS DURING PERIODS OF LOW TIDE
THURSDAY MORNING. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DIMINISH BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE TURNING ONSHORE ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST MON JAN 12 2026
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
TO BETWEEN 25-30% WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. MINIMUM RH VALUES MAY
BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS WINDS TURN BACK OUT OF
THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL PUSH ADDITIONAL DRY AIR INTO THE REGION THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 55 33 60 43 / 0 0 0 10
LCH 57 38 60 47 / 0 0 0 10
LFT 56 36 60 46 / 0 0 0 10
BPT 59 41 62 46 / 0 10 0 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ430-432-
435-436.
SHORT TERM...66
LONG TERM....66
AVIATION...66
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