258
FXUS64 KLCH 121832
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1232 PM CST MON JAN 12 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- A LIGHT FREEZE IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA
TUESDAY MORNING.
- A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT KEEPING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.
- WINDS, LOW RH, AND WINTER TIME ELEVATED ERC PERCENTILES SUGGEST
FIRE DANGER STATEMENTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF
OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND PEAKING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEHIND A DRY FRONT.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CST MON JAN 12 2026
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVERHEAD TODAY WILL SLOWLY
BROADEN ACROSS THE SE CONUS THROUGH TUESDAY. NORTH WINDS WILL
DECREASE AT THE SURFACE, BECOMING VARIABLE TO CALM. SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ARE EXPECTED UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES,
ASIDE FROM SOME PASSING UPPER-LEVEL PACIFIC CIRRUS.
CONCURRENTLY, THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL FEATURE DECOUPLED
NORTHERN AND SUBTROPICAL JET STREAMS, EFFECTIVELY HOLDING THE VERY
COLD CANADIAN AIRMASS OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS. THE LOCAL
SUBTROPICAL JET DIPS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF WITH WEAK
PERTURBATIONS. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE LACK OF LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW,
PRECIPITATION IS NOT FAVORED. THE NORTHERN JET WILL RAPIDLY
AMPLIFY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS OF
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE, A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MATERIALIZE AHEAD OF
THIS AIRMASS, THOUGH NOT BEFORE A SLIGHT WARMING TREND BRINGS
MILDER HIGHS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY
EVENING, WITH INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLDER
AIRMASS. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL ALSO INCREASE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON DUE TO THE RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS, FAVORABLE WINDS,
AND LOW RH THAT WILL PERSIST INTO THE LONG RANGE. CONSEQUENTLY,
MARINE HAZARD HEADLINES ARE LIKELY; A GALE WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY
IF THE INTENSITY OF OFFSHORE WINDS REMAINS CONSISTENT IN THE
FORECAST.
KOWALSKI / 30
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CST MON JAN 12 2026
THE LONG-RANGE PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING AS WINDS SURGE FROM THE NORTH. WHILE INLAND
LOCATIONS CURRENTLY REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA, THERE IS
SOME SPREAD IN PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE THAT COULD HEDGE CONDITIONS
HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. THIS HAZARD IS MOST FAVORABLE
ACROSS THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA AND I-10 CORRIDOR. FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY WHERE LOW RH IS EXPECTED UNDER THE
NORTHERLY REGIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO EASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH-PRESSURE
GRADIENT BROADENS INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE OVER THE
SE CONUS, PLACING SETX AND SWLA ON THE WESTERN FRINGE AND ALLOWING
FOR BRIEF ONSHORE FLOW LEADING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WILL RAPIDLY AMPLIFY ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY,
BRINGING COOL AND BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
KOWALSKI / 30
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CST MON JAN 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
TAF PERIOD. WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH WILL BEGIN TO EASE TONIGHT
BECOMING CALM AND VARIABLE DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CST MON JAN 12 2026
WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT
OFFSHORE FLOW PREVAILING TODAY AND TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY TURN
ONSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. STRONG
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THE STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS WILL AGAIN CREATE LOW WATER
CONDITIONS DURING PERIODS OF LOW TIDE THURSDAY MORNING. OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL DIMINISH BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE TURNING ONSHORE ONCE
AGAIN FRIDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CST MON JAN 12 2026
COOL AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEK. MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ARE RANGING ROUGHLY BETWEEN
25-30% WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. MINIMUM RH VALUES MAY BE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS WINDS TURN BACK OUT OF THE SOUTH
AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
PUSH ADDITIONAL DRY AIR INTO THE REGION THURSDAY. INCREASING WINDS
AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 33 60 42 63 / 0 10 20 0
LCH 39 58 46 67 / 0 10 10 0
LFT 36 60 44 66 / 0 10 10 0
BPT 40 61 44 68 / 10 10 0 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...30
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