320
FXUS64 KLCH 132331
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
531 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DUE TO HIGH WINDS, LOW RH AND
ELEVATED ERC VALUES. FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FOR
WEDNESDAY AND RED FLAG WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY -
SATURDAY.
- A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT KEEPING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WEDNESDAY
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WITH LIGHT WINDS
AT THE SURFACE. ALOFT, OUR FLOW IS MAINLY ZONAL WITH A 500MB LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED TO OUR WEST, OVER TEXAS. AS THE LOW-PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO OUR AREA, SKY COVER WILL INCREASE, AND WE
COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS OUR REGION, ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL BRING A SURGE OF DRY, COLD AIR TO THE REGION. WITH NO
MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE FRONT, RAIN CHANCES WILL BE VERY LOW,
AROUND 10%, WITH NO MEASURABLE RAIN EXPECTED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ALONG WITH ENSEMBLE TABLES SHOW A VERY DRY ENVIRONMENT BEHIND THE
FRONT, WITH ENSEMBLE TABLES SHOWING MOISTURE VALUES BELOW THE 10TH
PERCENTILE ALOFT AND RH VALUES DROPPING BELOW 30%. PWAT VALUES
ARE ALSO VERY LOW DROPPING BELOW THE 5TH PERCENTILE.
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE AS POST-
FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD, KEEPING WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
A SHORT PERIOD OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE RETURN WILL
OCCUR ON FRIDAY BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION ON SATURDAY. SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FRONT, THIS WILL BE A
DRY COLD FRONT WITH RAIN CHANCES NEAR ZERO. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP BELOW FREEZING IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AND REACH THE 30S FARTHER SOUTH.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 526 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH -RA MAY OCCUR FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING AT
KAEX, HOWEVER MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AREA WIDE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERCAST SKIES WITH CEILINGS AROUND 7 TO 10KFT
WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND THIN WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
CALM WITH WINDS BELOW 10 KNOTS AND SEAS BELOW 3 FEET. AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY, WINDS WILL BE OFFSHORE AND
WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE, AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN
EFFECT STARTING WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE COASTAL WATERS, THEN THE
LAKES AND BAYS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL PEAK NEAR 30
KNOTS ON THURSDAY, AND A LOW WATER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED DURING
LOW TIDE. WAVES WILL BUILD IN RESPONSE TO THE WINDS, BUILDING TO 7
FEET. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THURSDAY EVENING AND WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND ONSHORE ON FRIDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
A DRY COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WILL CREATE
CONCERNING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, AND A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IS
IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY. THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL HAVE ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE 20 TO 40 PERCENT
RANGE STARTING ON THURSDAY AND STAYING THAT LOW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A SECOND DRY COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER
SURGE OF NORTH WINDS, AND A RED FLAG WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 44 63 32 51 / 30 10 0 0
LCH 47 67 38 54 / 10 0 0 0
LFT 46 67 37 52 / 20 0 0 0
BPT 45 69 37 56 / 10 0 0 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR GMZ430-432-435-436.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR GMZ450-452-455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR GMZ470-472-475.
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...05
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page