116
FXUS64 KLCH 150613
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1213 AM CST THU JAN 15 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW TEMPERATURES IN TANDEM WITH ELEVATED WINDS WILL YIELD WIND
CHILL VALUES IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S EARLY THIS MORNING.
- ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, BRINGING A COOLER AND DRIER
AIRMASS.
- THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE FOR A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CST THU JAN 15 2026
CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S WITH GUSTY
NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 30S AREA WIDE; HOWEVER, IN
COMBINATION WITH THE GUSTY WINDS, APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
INTO THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY, WITH WINDS
TAPERING AS IT DOES. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR, WHICH WILL ASSIST WITH
WARMING, BUT TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE
UPPER 50S AT MOST. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL DEPART TO THE EAST LATE
TONIGHT, ALLOWING WINDS TO TURN SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL BRING MODEST
MOISTURE RETURN, WITH DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES INCREASING.
FRIDAY WILL BE MUCH WARMER, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. WITH MINIMAL MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY, LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED, WITH
POPS REMAINING BELOW 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE CWA.
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SATURDAY MORNING, USHERING IN A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS. SATURDAY
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY; HOWEVER, LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE
MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT,
BUT THIS PERIOD WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR ANY LINGERING
MOISTURE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR COLD WEATHER HEADLINE ISSUANCE.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CST THU JAN 15 2026
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AT OR BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS, WITH LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES UNTIL TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. SUNDAY MORNING
WILL START OFF CHILLY WITH CALMER WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND BUILDS INTO THE CWA.
BY MONDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST OF THE AREA; HOWEVER, ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DESCEND INTO
THE REGION, CLEARING THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
BEHIND THIS FRONT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RETURN BEFORE AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR THE TX/MX COAST. AS THIS SYSTEM
LIFTS NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST, ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY RETURN TO
THE FORECAST LATE TUESDAY, WITH POPS INCREASING INTO WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CST THU JAN 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING AND EXPECTED TO PREVAIL PAST THE END OF
THIS TAF CYCLE. WINDS ARE STILL ELEVATED AND GUSTY AS A RESULT OF
A COLD FRONT THAT PROGRESSED THROUGH THE REGION, HOWEVER THEY WILL
START TO RELAX LATER THIS MORNING AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
IN OUT OF THE WEST. WINDS WILL BE NEAR CALM THIS EVENING, THEN
BECOME LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CST THU JAN 15 2026
A DRY COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS LEADING TO
STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS IN ITS WAKE. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25-30 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THIS
MORNING ALONG WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FEET. LOW WATER CONDITIONS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED IN THE COASTAL LAKES AND BAYS DURING LOW TIDE
PERIODS THIS MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO ABATE THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE TURNING ONSHORE FRIDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER BOUT
OF STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THAT FRONT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CST THU JAN 15 2026
A DRY COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION WITH BREEZY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE. DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION ON THESE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DROP MINIMUM RH VALUES
INTO THE 20-30% RANGE TODAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME REESTABLISHED
ON FRIDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION, WHICH
WILL INCREASE DEWPOINTS AND AFTERNOON RH`S. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING TURNING BREEZY WINDS BACK OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND
ADVECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF VERY DRY AIR INTO THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 53 35 69 38 / 0 0 0 10
LCH 55 42 69 44 / 0 0 0 10
LFT 53 38 69 43 / 0 0 0 20
BPT 58 43 71 43 / 0 0 0 10
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
GMZ430-432-435-436-450-452-455.
LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ430-432-
435-436.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ470-472-475.
SHORT TERM...87
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...87
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