443
FXUS64 KLCH 152332
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
532 PM CST THU JAN 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT MORNING. A SECONDARY MUCH COLDER AIRMASS FOLLOWS ON SAT
NIGHT. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY SWITCH OVER TO FLURRIES FOR A
BRIEF TIME THRU SUN SUNRISE. NO ACCUMULATIONS.
- COLD TEMPS AND BREEZY WINDS WILL BRING DOWN THE REAL-FEEL TEMP
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. CHILLS IN THE 22 TO 28F RANGE ARE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY AM. A HARD FREEZE IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.
- A COMBINATION OF VERY DRY AIRMASS, DRY VEGETATION AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ALL WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CST THU JAN 15 2026
ROBUST NORTHWEST FLOW IS ONGOING OVERTOP THE REGION ON THE HEELS
OF LAST NIGHT'S COLD FROPA. UPPER LEVEL PRESSURE FIELDS TRACE ALL
THE WAY NORTH AND WEST INTO THE ALASKAN FRONTIER. THAT'S A LONG
WAY FOR THIS COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS TO TRAVEL! THE FORECAST CONTINUES
ITS YO-YOING BEYOND TODAY AS UPPER LEVELS REMAIN VERY ACTIVE.
BY TOMORROW (FRIDAY), THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH SWINGING INTO THE WEST
PLAINS WILL SPIN UP ITS NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN FEATURES WILL GENERATE A STRONG ONSHORE WIND WITH HEAT AND
HUMIDITY SET TO TAKE BACK OVER DURING DAYTIME HOURS. SHOULD BE A
BEAUTIFUL SPRING TIME DAY WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S!
THE FIRST SHORTWAVE PULSE OF EXTENSIVE UPPER TROF AXIS SWINGS
OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY, STARTING THE RETURN OF COLD AIR
ONCEMORE. VERY FEW SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH ITS PASSAGE, BUT
A FEW DRIZZLY LIGHT SHOWERS COULD SQUEAK OUT ACROSS LOWER
ACADIANA PRIOR TO SUNRISE. STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FRONT WITH TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 50S.
11/CALHOUN
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CST THU JAN 15 2026
THE LARGE UPPER TROF SWINGS ACROSS THE EAST US ON SATURDAY,
SENDING A VERY POTENT REINFORCING COLD FRONT DOWN INTO THE GULF
COAST STATES. FROM HERE, ALL EYES ARE ON THE EVOLUTION OF
CONDITIONS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. IT'S THE TYPICAL SCENARIO WE
DEAL WITH ON THE COASTLINE REGARDING SNOW AND ICE... WILL THE
COLDEST AIR ARRIVE BEFORE THE MOISTURE IS ALL SWEPT OUT?
GUIDANCE IS ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH IT'S PROGGED OUTCOME.
BASICALLY, HERE'S THE BIG PICTURE: MOST MODELS KEEP OUR FORECAST
AREA DRY BY THE TIME TEMPS HIT FREEZING; VERY FEW MODELS ARE
SHOWING SNOW/ICE, BUT THE MODELS WHO DO PAINT THIS SCENARIO...
THEY PUT DOWN BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES. THESE MODELS ARE SKEWING THE
ENSEMBLE MEAN INTO THE TERRITORY OF SNOW AND ICE BEING VIABLE, BUT
LIKELY NOT MEASURABLE AND WITH NO ACCUMULATIONS. THERE IS A LARGE
SUM OF FORECASTER UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS EVENT, AND PERSONALLY
THIS FORECASTER IS HESITANT TO BELIEVE THERE WILL BE MUCH TO STAY
AWAKE FOR BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND SUNDAY SUNRISE. IF PROBS ARE MORE
YOUR SPEED, THERE IS A ROUGHLY 20% CHANCE OR LESS OF 0.10 INCHES
(THE THRESHOLD OF MEASURABLE) ACROSS THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN AND
LOWER ACADIANA. WHY HERE? BECAUSE THIS IS WHERE MOISTURE WILL HANG
ON THE LONGEST INTO THOSE COOLING OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE FOR ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT INTO SUNDAY SUNRISE TO SLOWLY SWITCHOVER TO LIGHT RAIN
WITH FLURRIES MIXED IN, FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. NO ACCUMULATIONS.
THERE COULD BE SOME VERY LIMITED INSTANCES OF FLURRIES AND PERHAPS
SOME SLEET TO THE WEST ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR.
NOW, THE OTHER PIECE OF THE PUZZLE SUNDAY MORNING... COLD
TEMPERATURES. WINDS WILL BE ELEVATED WITH CLOUD COVER, SO AIR
TEMPS WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 F. FROM
MIDNIGHT TO 12 PM SUNDAY, THOSE NORTH OF I-10 ARE FORECAST AT OR
BELOW FREEZING FOR 3 TO 7 HOURS. SOUTH OF I-10, IT'S CLOSER TO 0
TO 3 HOURS. HOWEVER, DUE TO BREEZY WINDS, THE REAL-FEEL WILL BE
CLOSER TO 22 TO 28F AREA-WIDE. SOME AREAS MAY NEED A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THIS PERIOD.
NOT ANTICIPATING A HARD FREEZE ANYTIME OVER THE LONGTERM PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE RETURNS MONDAY WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
ANTICIPATED FOR THE FOLLOWING DAYS.
11/CALHOUN
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 530 PM CST THU JAN 15 2026
WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT THE MOMENT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CWA. THEY WILL BEGIN TO TURN OUT OF THE SOUTH
AND BECOME ELEVATED AS THE HIGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CST THU JAN 15 2026
NORTHERLY FLOW SHUTS OFF LATE TONIGHT AND ONSHORE WINDS RESUME BY
FRIDAY MORNING. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ON GRADIENT
BETWEEN HIGH TO THE EAST AND DEVELOPING WEATHER SYSTEM IN THE
SOUTH PLAINS. THIS SHOULD HELP ABATE LOW WATER CONDITIONS
SOMEWHAT FOR FRIDAY, BUT WATER LEVELS WILL STILL FALL TO AROUND
-1.0 FEET. A SERIES OF STRONG COLD FRONTS MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF ON FRIDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY. STRONG, HAZARDOUS WINDS AND
SEAS WILL START AS EARLY AS SUNRISE SATURDAY. A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PREVAIL TO THE END OF THE WEEKEND
EXACERBATING LOW WATER LEVELS AT LOW TIDE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CST THU JAN 15 2026
VERY DRY AIRMASS TODAY WILL BE REPLACED BY MOISTENING AIRMASS ON
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS
BRING GULF MOISTURE BACK INLAND. FORECAST MIN RH VALUES 20 TO 25
PERCENT WILL BECOME 40 TO 50 PERCENT FRIDAY. A SERIES OF COLD
FRONTS MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT,
USHERING SOUTHWARD A VERY COLD AND DRY AIRMASS ONCE AGAIN WHICH
WILL LINGER OVER THE WEEKEND. PERIODS OF STRONG, POSSIBLY GUSTY,
WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS COMBINATION OF ELEVATED
WINDS, DRY CONDITIONS AND VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL MAKE FOR INCREASED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INTO THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 35 69 38 53 / 0 10 10 0
LCH 43 69 45 54 / 0 0 10 0
LFT 38 69 44 55 / 0 0 20 10
BPT 43 71 44 56 / 0 0 10 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY FOR GMZ430-432.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...87
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