761
FXUS64 KLCH 160609
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1209 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT
INTO SAT MORNING. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY SWITCH OVER TO
FLURRIES FOR A BRIEF TIME THRU SUN SUNRISE. NO ACCUMULATIONS.
- COLD TEMPS AND BREEZY WINDS WILL BRING DOWN THE APPARENT TEMP
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. A HARD FREEZE IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME, A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY COULD BE POSSIBLE.
- A COMBINATION OF VERY DRY AIRMASS, DRY VEGETATION AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ALL WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S WITH LIGHT
SOUTHERLY TO CALM WINDS. THE HIGH PRESSURE IS JUST NE OF THE CWA
AND WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER TODAY (FRIDAY). THIS WILL BRING
MODEST MOISTURE RETURN, WITH DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES
INCREASING. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO 70S,
HOWEVER YET ANOTHER FRONT IN A SERIES OF FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WITH MINIMAL MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY, LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED,
WITH POPS REMAINING AT OR BELOW 25 PERCENT ACROSS THE CWA.
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SATURDAY MORNING, USHERING IN A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS. FOR THE
WEEKEND, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT, BUT THIS PERIOD WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR COLD WEATHER HEADLINE
ISSUANCE. WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW AND ANY LINGERING
MOISTURE, FLURRIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. NEVERTHELESS,
PROBABILITIES REMAIN FAIRLY LOW AT THIS TIME. OVER THE DAY SUNDAY,
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA, EXITING THE
AREA THAT NIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT BEGUN AT THE END OF THE LONG TERM WILL NOT
PREVAIL FOR LONG AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION ON MONDAY. BEHIND THIS FRONT, ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY DROP INTO THE AREA BEFORE QUICKLY EXITING OFF TO THE
EAST ON TUESDAY. ALONG WITH THIS, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO
TAKE SHAPE OVER TX/MX. AS THIS SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ALONG
THE COAST, ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY RETURN TO THE FORECAST LATE
TUESDAY, WITH POPS INCREASING INTO WEDNESDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
SPLIT ON THE EVOLUTION, HOWEVER THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS LEANING
TOWARDS SCATTERED SHOWERS INCREASING WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
THERE WILL BE NO WINTER THREAT, HOWEVER AS A WARMING TREND ENSUES
STARTING ON WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO EXCEED NORMALS
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING AND EXPECTED TO PREVAIL PAST THE END OF
THIS TAF CYCLE. THE HIGH PRESSURE IS JUST NE OF THE CWA AND WILL
PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER TODAY (FRIDAY). SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN AND BECOME GUSTY OVER THE DAY BEFORE TAPERING TONIGHT.
THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MID TO UPPER LEVEL
CIGS TO RETURN AS WELL.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
ONSHORE WINDS RESUME BY FRIDAY MORNING. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ON GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH TO THE EAST AND DEVELOPING
WEATHER SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SHOULD HELP ABATE LOW
WATER CONDITIONS SOMEWHAT FOR FRIDAY, BUT WATER LEVELS WILL STILL
FALL TO AROUND -1.0 FEET. A SERIES OF STRONG COLD FRONTS MOVE
INTO THE NORTHERN GULF ON FRIDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY. STRONG,
HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS WILL START AS EARLY AS SUNRISE SATURDAY.
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PREVAIL TO THE END OF
THE WEEKEND EXACERBATING LOW WATER LEVELS AT LOW TIDE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
THE AIRMASS WILL MOISTENING A BIT TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EAST AND STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS BRING GULF MOISTURE BACK INLAND.
FORECAST MIN RH VALUES WILL BECOME 40 TO 50 PERCENT TODAY. A
SERIES OF COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY
NIGHT, USHERING SOUTHWARD A VERY COLD AND DRY AIRMASS ONCE AGAIN
WHICH WILL LINGER OVER THE WEEKEND. PERIODS OF STRONG, POSSIBLY
GUSTY, WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS COMBINATION OF
ELEVATED WINDS, DRY CONDITIONS AND VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL MAKE FOR
INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INTO THE START OF THE NEXT WORK
WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 70 39 54 27 / 0 10 0 0
LCH 69 45 54 32 / 0 20 10 10
LFT 70 45 54 33 / 0 20 10 20
BPT 72 44 56 32 / 0 10 10 10
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ430-432.
SHORT TERM...87
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...87
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page